January 26th Pre-Market

Good morning.

Gold hit $5k late last night.

You don't see moves like that when confidence is high. Tariff threats, now gov’t shutdown risk, and a Fed meeting all landing in the same week.

Apple, Meta, Microsoft, and Tesla report earnings this week. Powell speaks Wednesday.

Let's dig in...

Today's Big Picture

Gold Hits $5,000 as Central Banks Keep Buying

Gold broke $5,000 for the first time. This isn't a weak-dollar story anymore…central banks have been accumulating at record pace since 2022. Countries are buying the asset nobody can sanction.

Trump Threatens 100% Tariffs Over Canada's China Deal

On January 16th, Canada cut a deal with Beijing…Chinese EVs enter at 6.1% instead of 100%. China drops tariffs on Canadian canola in return.

Now Trump's threatening 100% tariffs on all Canadian goods. Calls Canada a "drop off port" for Chinese products.

Carney's defense: no free trade deal exists.
Technically true. But 49,000 Chinese EVs just got a backdoor into North America.

To me it’s Trump using tariff threats as leverage over a minor quota deal.

Winter Storm Spikes Natural Gas to 2022 Highs

Natural gas hit its highest level since 2022 as a massive storm freezes the country. Demand is ripping while supply gets choked off this week. Futures are pricing in more weeks of this.

Market Overview

Stock Spotlight

USA Rare Earth $USAR ( ▲ 2.78% ) 

Government is taking a stake to secure domestic supplies. Shows how serious the White House is about resource independence.

American Airlines $AAL ( ▼ 0.5% ) 

Canceled over 1,500 flights this weekend from the storm. Operations are struggling as weather keeps disrupting travel.

Sarepta Therapeutics $SRPT ( ▲ 2.47% ) 

Study results on their muscular dystrophy treatment come out this morning. Stock has been volatile.

Revolution Medicines $RVMD ( ▼ 0.18% ) 

Down after Merck $MRK ( ▲ 2.11% )  backed out of a buyout. Couldn't settle on price.

Apple $AAPL ( ▼ 1.01% ) 

Earnings later this week in a shaky market. Watching if the AI story holds.

Enphase Energy $ENPH ( ▼ 0.75% ) 

Cutting jobs as federal tax credits end and demand drops. Tough time for residential solar.

Microsoft $MSFT ( ▲ 0.39% ) 

Earnings and AI update coming. Everyone wants to see if the AI spending is paying off.

What to Watch

Fed Rate Decision (Wednesday 2:00 PM ET) 
Rate cut clues while the Fed faces legal heat. This decides if the rally can hold.

Big Tech Earnings Start Wednesday 
Four giants report this week. They're carrying the entire index.

Consumer Confidence (Tuesday 10:00 AM ET) 
Ignore the headline. Watch inflation expectations. If that spikes, Fed stays tight and tech bleeds.

The 2026 Stimulus Cycle 
Trump's tax bill hits. $30-100B in refunds land in H1. Nobody's pricing this liquidity yet. Could crush shorts before midterms.

Thanks for reading 🙂

- John

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