January 26th Market Overview

Happy Monday

Gold hit $5k this weekend. Silver dumped 10% by close. The gap tells me who owns what. Silver was speculators on borrowed yen. When intervention on the Yen threats hit, silver speculators will flush. Gold held because central banks don't get margin called.

The institutions printing money are stockpiling the one thing they can't print.

Anyways, we are kicking off earnings week with a bang.

Let’s dig in...

Today's Big Picture

Gold Hits $5,000 but Silver Blows Off Hard

Gold broke $5,000 this morning then gave back about 1.5%. Silver had a wild session, dumped over 10% by the close. That kind of intraday reversal usually means the easy money in the metals trade is done. Gold holding up better suggests real demand. Silver action looks like speculation getting flushed.

Shutdown Risk Rises to Start the Week

Prediction markets are pricing in a government shutdown this weekend. Senate Democrats and Republicans are deadlocked over immigration funding in the $1.2 trillion spending package. Deadline is Saturday at midnight.

Biggest Earnings Week of the Quarter Collides with Fed

Four Mag 7 companies report this week: Meta $META, Microsoft $MSFT, and Tesla $TSLA on Wednesday, Apple $AAPL on Thursday. Fed announces Wednesday afternoon. Powell could be overshadowed if Trump announces his replacement during the meeting.

Market Overview

Index Performance

Stock Spotlight

CoreWeave $CRWV ( ▲ 0.36% ) 
secured another $2 billion from Nvidia $NVDA to build AI infrastructure. Bond prices moved higher on the cash injection.

IonQ $IONQ ( ▲ 8.98% ) 
agreed to buy SkyWater Technology $SKYT for roughly $1.8 billion. Vertical integration play. They want to own the chips, not rent them.

GameStop $GME ( ▼ 0.13% ) 
attracted a new buyer in Michael Burry. The "Big Short" investor argues the company is undervalued at roughly 1x tangible book value.

Newmont $NEM ( ▲ 6.55% ) 
rallied along with other miners as gold hit records. The sector is finally catching a bid after lagging big tech for months.

Big Name Updates

Apple $AAPL ( ▼ 2.27% ) 
JPMorgan raised its target to $315 on iPhone demand. Morgan Stanley warned expense guidance could limit upside.

Meta Platforms $META ( ▼ 1.54% ) 
reports Wednesday. Zuckerberg is spending on AI again. Analysts raised price targets anyway, betting ad revenue covers the bill.

Cisco Systems $CSCO ( ▲ 2.47% ) 
got a double upgrade from Evercore ISI. AI networking demand finally driving growth after years of nothing.

Boeing $BA ( ▲ 1.51% ) 
reports Tuesday morning. Stock has rallied on turnaround hopes. Earnings will test if the optimism is earned.

Other Notable Company News

Revolution Medicines $RVMD ( ▼ 1.05% ) 
fell after Merck $MRK walked away from acquisition talks over price.

BlackRock TCP Capital $TCPC ( ▼ 0.83% ) 
hit a record low after reporting steep declines in loan portfolio value. Nonperforming loans now one-tenth of the portfolio.

Allied Gold $AAUCF ( ▲ 0.61% ) 
agreed to be acquired by Zijin Gold for C$5.5 billion cash. Close expected late April.

Ryanair $RYAAY ( ▲ 0.62% ) 
lifted its outlook citing strong demand and higher fares despite Boeing delivery delays.

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Sector Watch

Bond Market

Treasury yields held steady ahead of the Fed. Currencies were the story. The yen has been getting crushed, and both Tokyo and Washington signaled they're ready to step in and buy yen to stop the bleeding. Coordinated intervention is rare. If it happens, expect the dollar to weaken, gold to rally further, and Japanese exporters to sell off.

Policy Watch

Fed Meeting

Powell speaks Wednesday. Decision at 2pm ET, press conference at 2:30. Markets expect rates to hold. The wildcard is a Trump Fed Chair announcement during the meeting to steal the spotlight.

Government Shutdown

Senate Democrats drawing a hard line on DHS funding after the Minneapolis ICE shootings. GOP says the funding stays. White House softened its tone today but damage may be done. Deadline Saturday at midnight.

Trade

Trump threatened massive tariffs on Canada if PM Carney signs a deal with China. Carney immediately said Ottawa has "no intention" of doing so. The threat worked instantly.

Energy

Winter storm doubled natural gas prices in a week. February futures hit $6.80. Spot prices running hotter: $61 in New York, $50 in New England. Wells freezing, demand spiking, grid under pressure.

What to Watch

Fed Rate Decision

Wednesday at 2pm ET. Powell speaks at 2:30. Rate hold expected. The wildcard is a Trump Fed chair announcement during the meeting.

Big Tech Earnings

Microsoft $MSFT and Meta $META report Wednesday. Apple $AAPL Thursday. These three stocks dictate where the S&P 500 goes this month.

Shutdown Deadline

Government funding expires 12:01 a.m. Saturday. Senate deadlocked over immigration riders. Neither side showing signs of backing down.

Thanks for reading - you are now the more informed 🙂

- John

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