January 23rd Pre-Market

Good morning.

Futures are red after a two-day rally. The Greenland tariff scare is done. Trump got his framework deal and scrapped the threats.

Textbook: make noise, get what you want, call it a compromise.

Let's dig in...

Today's Big Picture

China Clears Nvidia Chip Orders 

Beijing cleared Alibaba and Tencent to buy Nvidia H200 chips. China spent years trying to cut American silicon out of its supply chain. Now they're placing orders. Building AI fast is winning.

Intel Admits It Missed the AI Wave 

Intel lost more than expected. Q1 will be worse. But that's not the story. Execs admitted they got "caught off guard" by AI data center demand. They have orders they can't fill. Stock dropped 13%. Intel invented the modern chip. Demand finally shows up and they can't make them.

Natural Gas Posts Record Weekly Surge

Natural gas ran from $2 to $5.50 this week. Up 60-75%. Tuesday jumped 26%…largest single-day gain ever.

Reason: arctic blast forecasts. Freeze-offs (wellheads freeze, production stops) could cut supply right when heating demand spikes. Fed meets January 27-28. They just got handed an inflation problem.

Market Overview

Stock Spotlight

Intel $INTC ( ▲ 4.87% ) 

admitted they missed the whole AI data center thing. Now they're looking at a bigger loss and lousy guidance.

Nvidia $NVDA ( ▲ 7.87% ) 

is getting a boost from China letting their tech companies buy H200 chips. A huge revenue door just opened that was shut before.

Capital One Financial $COF ( ▲ 2.7% ) 

is buying Brex for over $5 billion. They also missed earnings and are putting aside more money for bad loans.

Alcoa $AA ( ▲ 4.93% ) 

beat profit expectations as aluminum prices go up. They're managing the hit from Canadian tariffs for now.

Intuitive Surgical $ISRG ( ▲ 2.48% ) 

shares jumped after earnings. They laid out how 2026 tariffs could affect their robotic surgical system.

CSX $CSX ( ▲ 1.86% ) 

missed profit estimates but says the railroad is about to turn around. They're expecting more shipments later this year and said it would buy Purell-maker Gojo.

Adani Green $ADANIGREEN.NSE ( ▲ 0.21% ) 

 is dealing with fresh SEC trouble. Summons going out over fraud and bribery charges in New York.

Today’s Sponsor

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What to Watch

Flash PMI Data (9:45 AM ET) 
Algos move fast on this one. We're watching whether manufacturing holds up or if services are doing all the lifting. Details this afternoon.

Consumer Sentiment (10:00 AM ET) 
Skip the headline number. Watch inflation expectations. If that ticks up, the Fed stays tight longer and tech gets hit.

The 2026 Stimulus Cycle 
Trump's tax bill is kicking in. Estimates put $30-100B in extra refunds hitting consumer accounts in H1. That's a liquidity injection most people aren't pricing in.

Thanks for reading 🙂

- John

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