January 23rd Market Overview

Happy Friday

S&P closes it’s second straight losing week. Stocks basically went nowhere today while precious metals went vertical. Gold near $5,000 and silver crossing $100. I think the these will revert to mean very soon but I’m being very careful in front of that steam train.

Trump's Greenland moves whipped markets around all week, but we survived.

Let’s dig in...

Today's Big Picture

Metals Break History

Gold closed at $4,976 and silver crossed $100 for the first time ever. Gold's $388 weekly gain was the largest in dollar terms on record. Citadel's Ken Griffin nailed it: investors now treat gold like the safe haven the dollar used to be. I think this move is structural, not a trade and will keep repeating that. I think a small mean reversion is coming up though.

Intel Gets Punished

Intel $INTC fell hard after forecasting more losses and revealing supply shortages that will hurt Q1. The stock had run up over the past six months on turnaround hopes. Reality showed up. Foundry customer announcements won't come until H2 at the earliest.

The Greenland Pivot

Trump claimed a "framework of a deal" for Greenland after threatening European tariffs earlier in the week. The threats caused a quick sell-off, but markets calmed once deal talk started. One strategist calls this the "TACO" trade: Trump Announces, Changes Opinion.

Or “Trump always chickens out” depends on what outlet you hear talking about it…

Market Overview

Index Performance

Stock Spotlight

Nvidia $NVDA ( ▲ 7.87% ) 
gained on reports that CEO Jensen Huang plans to visit China before Lunar New Year. They need that market.

Capital One $COF ( ▲ 2.7% ) 
announced a deal to acquire fintech startup Brex for over $5 billion. Half cash, half stock. This gives them a real foothold in business payments.

Sandisk $SNDK ( ▲ 3.78% ) 
is at extreme short squeeze risk according to S3 Partners. Short interest at 7.5% with $3 billion in losses stacked against the shorts.

Big Name Updates

Goldman Sachs $GS ( ▲ 4.31% ) 
dropped and dragged the Dow into the red. CEO David Solomon got a $47 million pay package for the bank's second-best year ever.

Spotify $SPOT ( ▲ 2.39% ) 
got a buy rating from Goldman ahead of earnings. Analysts like their pricing power and accelerating ad revenue.

Starbucks $SBUX ( ▲ 3.52% ) 
faces a big week with earnings Wednesday and investor day Thursday. Deutsche Bank thinks long-term targets could surprise to the upside.

Visa $V ( ▲ 0.74% ) 
and Mastercard $MA are working with the administration on cards that comply with a 10% rate cap. They seem to be shaking off regulatory fears.

Other Notable Company News

Clorox $CLX ( ▲ 1.49% ) 
agreed to buy Purell maker Gojo Industries for over $2 billion.

Applied Materials $AMAT ( ▲ 6.09% ) 
got a buy rating from Deutsche Bank. Wafer fab equipment demand is picking up. Target raised to $390.

Darden Restaurants $DRI ( ▲ 1.27% ) 
upgraded at Mizuho on expectations that higher tax refunds will boost traffic at Olive Garden and LongHorn.

Sherwin-Williams $SHW ( ▲ 0.26% ) 
downgraded to hold at Deutsche Bank. Valuation is stretched and housing is slow.

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Sector Watch

Bond Market

The dollar had its worst week since June. Against the yen it fell from 158.42 to 155.88, the sharpest single-day drop since August. Some traders suspect BOJ intervention. Others say it's just crowded short-yen positions unwinding.

• No one expects the Fed to move rates next week

• Bank of Japan held rates at their 30-year high

Policy Watch

Fed Chair Race

BlackRock's Rick Rieder is now the betting favorite to replace Powell. Prediction markets flipped Friday after Bloomberg reported he has strong White House support.

• Kalshi: Rieder 50%, Warsh 33%

• Trump hinted he's made a decision and could announce next week

Credit Caps

The push for a 10% national credit card rate cap is getting real traction. Visa and Mastercard are already working with the administration on compliant products. Banks are adapting faster than expected.

Winter Energy

A massive Arctic storm is threatening to freeze more than a tenth of U.S. natural gas production. Goldman expects major supply disruption as wells freeze over.

• National Weather Service warns of "catastrophic" ice accumulation

• Long power outages expected across Ohio Valley and Northeast

Iran

Trump told reporters a U.S. "armada" is heading toward Iran. Oil prices rose nearly 3% on the comments. Worth monitoring over the weekend.

What to Watch

Fed Meeting

The Fed meets Wednesday with rates likely holding at 3.5%-3.75%. This is Powell's first press conference since the DOJ investigation into his testimony came out. Watch for any shifts in tone on the new administration's policies.

Big Tech Earnings

Microsoft $MSFT, Meta $META, and Tesla $TSLA report Wednesday. Apple $AAPL on Thursday. These four will dictate whether the Nasdaq holds its gains.

Arctic Storm Impact

Natural gas is moving fast on weather headlines. Watch for production freeze-off data early next week. Prices are already up two-thirds from last Friday.

Census Data

First 2025 population figures drop Tuesday with national and state estimates. This data shapes congressional seats and where companies decide to expand.

Thanks for reading - you are now the more informed 🙂

- John

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