January 22nd Market Overview

Happy Thursday

Markets rose for a second straight day after Trump pulled an Art of the Deal retreat on his tariff threats.

The economy’s looking solid on a macro level, GDP came in higher than expected and unemployment claims hit a one-year low. Gold broke $4,900, a new record. Intel dropped after hours after guiding next quarter below expectations.

Let’s dig in...

Today's Big Picture

Economy Stronger Than Expected

The economy grew faster than initially reported last quarter. Unemployment claims hit their lowest level in over a year. Inflation held steady at 2.8, still above the Fed's 2.0 target but not getting worse.

Translation: the Fed has no reason to cut rates anytime soon.

Consumer Giants Feeling the Squeeze

Procter & Gamble $PG and Abbott $ABT are selling less stuff even after cutting prices. McCormick $MKC said tariffs will cost them $50 million this year and they'll raise prices to cover it. The old playbook of hiking prices and hoping customers don't notice is breaking down and everyone’s feeling it.

Greenland "Framework" Pauses Trade War

Trump announced he won't hit European nations with new tariffs after claiming he reached a deal on Greenland. Big reversal from earlier this week when the tariff threats sent markets lower. Denmark says sovereignty isn't up for discussion, but for now the immediate threat is off the table.

Market Overview

Index Performance

Stock Spotlight

Abbott Laboratories $ABT ( ▲ 1.6% ) 
fell hard after nutrition sales missed. Baby formula and Ensure volumes dropped even after price cuts. Management said there were "challenges."

GE Aerospace $GE ( ▲ 4.78% ) 
sold off despite beating estimates. Investors focused on slowing growth in the commercial engine business. The stock is up big over the past year so expectations were high.

BitGo $BTGO ( ▲ 13.28% ) 
debuted on the NYSE and opened well above its offer price. First crypto IPO of 2026. The window is open.

Big Name Updates

Meta Platforms $META ( ▼ 1.31% ) 
led the Mag7 higher. Jefferies reiterated it as a top pick, noting the stock is down big since earnings while Google $GOOGL is up. That spread looks overdone.

Nvidia $NVDA ( ▲ 7.87% ) 
CEO Jensen Huang is planning a trip to China to work on reopening that market. Reports say production is paused on some consumer cards because memory is tight.

Tesla $TSLA ( ▲ 3.5% ) 
rose after Musk said at Davos he plans to sell humanoid robots to the public by end of 2027. Robotaxis "widespread" this year. His timelines slip, but markets price them in anyway.

JPMorgan $JPM ( ▲ 3.95% ) 
sued by President Trump for $5 billion over allegedly closing his accounts for political reasons after January 6th. The bank says it has no merit. Stock barely moved.

Other Notable Company News

GameStop $GME ( ▲ 1.18% ) 
CEO Ryan Cohen bought another 500,000 shares at $21.60. His SEC filing said CEOs who don't buy their own stock "should be fired."

Intel $INTC ( ▲ 4.87% ) 
beat Q4 earnings but guided Q1 below expectations. Stock fell after hours. After a 147% run, investors wanted more.

Sphere Entertainment $SPHR ( ▲ 5.43% ) 
got a buy rating from BTIG after announcing a new 6,000-seat venue in D.C.

Paramount $PARAA ( ▼ 5.93% ) 
extended its tender deadline for Warner Bros. Discovery $WBD to February 20.

Ubisoft $UBI ( 0.0% ) 
cut its outlook, canceled six games, and delayed seven more.

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Sector Watch

Bond Market

Ten-year yield settled around 4.25 as investors rotated out of safety trades. The strong GDP print didn't move yields much. Dollar slipped despite the hot economic data, which tells you something about confidence.

Policy Watch

Trade & Tariffs

The tariff pause is the story. European business groups were calling for retaliation before Trump reversed course. The Greenland "framework" has no details, but it killed the February 1st levies. Commerce Secretary Lutnick says they're still committed to a U.S.-EU trade deal.

Federal Reserve

• PCE inflation held at 2.8 in November

• Not accelerating, but not falling either

• Fed has cover to stay patient

International

• Denmark: Open to Arctic security talks, but sovereignty is a "red line"

• Germany: Deputy Chancellor raised the idea of discussing a nuclear umbrella with France

• EU: Reviewing trade defense instruments in case the wind shifts again

What to Watch

Intel Reality Check

Intel $INTC ( ▲ 4.87% ) 
beat Q4 estimates but guided Q1 revenue and earnings below expectations. The stock fell after hours. After a 147% run, investors wanted more than "we don't have enough supply." The foundry story isn't dead, but it needs proof.

Fed Chair Nomination

Trump hasn't named his pick yet. This decision shapes monetary policy through 2026.

Tech Earnings Ahead

The big names start to report soon. Markets need them to justify current valuations with actual growth.

Thanks for reading - you are now the more informed 🙂

- John

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