January 21st Market Overview

Happy Wednesday

Trump said "no force" on Greenland. The trade war ended before it really began.

He announced a framework deal with NATO, canceling the February 1st European tariffs. Markets love certainty more than they care about Arctic mineral rights. Precious metals sold off slightly, everything else rallied. A ton of bullish macro signals for the market today.

Let’s dig in...

Today's Big Picture

1. Tariff Threat Vanishes 

Trump announced a "framework" deal with NATO on Greenland, canceling the February 1st tariffs on Europe. He confirmed the U.S. won't use military force. When asked what kind of deal this is, he called it a "concept of a deal."

2. Supreme Court Tests Fed Independence 

Justices heard arguments on whether Trump can fire Fed Governor Lisa Cook. They seemed skeptical of the administration's case. The ruling will set the boundaries of presidential power over the Fed. Trump also said he's basically made his Fed Chair pick and will announce soon.

3. Netflix Pauses Buybacks Netflix 

$NFLX beat subscriber estimates but shares dropped on news it's pausing buybacks. The company is hoarding cash for the pending Warner Bros deal. 2026 margin guidance also missed.

Market Overview

Index Performance

Stock Spotlight

Halliburton $HAL ( ▲ 3.37% ) 
CEO Jeff Miller said his phone is "ringing off the hook" about work in Venezuela. After the U.S. deposed Maduro, the company expects to ramp up oil field services quickly.

Kraft Heinz $KHC ( ▲ 0.8% ) 
fell after filings revealed Berkshire Hathaway $BRK.B might sell nearly its entire stake. That's over a quarter of the company's shares.

Blue Origin (private) announced "TeraWave," a satellite network to compete with SpaceX and Amazon $AMZN. They aim to deploy over 5,000 satellites next year.

Johnson & Johnson $JNJ ( ▲ 0.93% ) 
beat sales estimates thanks to cancer and autoimmune drugs. Shares dipped anyway on patent loss concerns.

Big Name Updates

United Airlines $UAL ( ▲ 9.26% ) 
forecast earnings will grow this year despite taking a $250 million hit from the government shutdown. Premium travelers are carrying the load.

Meta Platforms $META ( ▼ 1.31% ) gained after the FTC appealed a court decision that dismissed its monopoly claims. The CTO said their new AI models are already being delivered internally.

Nvidia $NVDA ( ▲ 7.87% ) 
CEO Jensen Huang is planning a China trip later this month. GPU rental prices are climbing even for chips two generations old.

Other Notable Company News

Blackstone $BX ( ▲ 2.26% ) 
shares rose even after Trump signed an order restricting institutional home buying.

GameStop $GME ( ▲ 1.18% ) 
CEO Ryan Cohen bought another 500,000 shares at $21.12 on January 20th.

OpenAI (private) committed to paying higher electricity rates to secure power for its U.S. data centers.

ARM Holdings $ARM ( ▲ 11.56% ) rallied after Susquehanna upgrade.
Intel $INTC, Micron $MU, and AMD followed.

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Sector Watch

Bond Market

Global yields calmed after Japan's selloff yesterday. Deutsche Bank $DB CEO disavowed an analyst note suggesting Europe dump Treasurys over Greenland. Bessent called Danish holdings "irrelevant."

Policy Watch

Greenland & Defense 
The "Golden Dome" missile defense project is part of the framework. Trump said it covers the entire Arctic and lasts "forever." EU Parliament froze work on the US-EU trade deal in response.

Fed 
The Lisa Cook case tests a 1935 precedent protecting agency heads from removal. A ruling for Trump could reshape regulatory power government-wide. Warsh, Waller, and Rieder are the final names for chair.

Housing & Credit

• Trump wants the government to buy $200B in mortgage bonds to push rates down

• Proposed a temporary 10% cap on credit card rates

• JPMorgan $JPM CEO Jamie Dimon called it an "economic disaster"

Trade

• US and Switzerland start formal talks in February to cut tariffs to 15%

• USTR Greer says he and Bessent will likely meet Chinese counterparts before April

• Lutnick predicted 5% GDP growth in Q1, possibly 6% if Fed cuts

What to Watch

Fed Chair Announcement 
Bessent indicated announcement could come next week. Markets will react to whoever gets the nod.

Intel Earnings Intel $INTC
reports later this week. The chip sector has been volatile, and investors want to see if legacy tech is riding the AI wave.

Swiss Trade Talks 
The U.S. and Switzerland begin formal negotiations in February. Includes a $200 billion Swiss investment pledge.

China Meeting 
If Greer and Bessent actually meet with Chinese counterparts before April, that's the next major catalyst for trade-sensitive names.

Thanks for reading - you are now the more informed 🙂

- John

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