January 20th Pre-Market

Good morning.

Trump threatened tariffs on French champagne. The reason isn't trade. It's Greenland.

I think we're watching the U.S. completely rewrite the rules on how it deals with allies, and honestly, Europe doesn't have a playbook for it yet.

Let's dig in...

Today's Big Picture

Tariffs for Territory

Trump tied European tariffs to his Greenland push. He's using trade policy to grab land. This isn't about trade gaps anymore. It's about using American cash to redraw the map.

Gold and Silver Just Hit a Record

Gold punched through its all time high today. Investors keep bailing on the dollar as trade war talk heats up. The Greenland chaos over the weekend added more fuel for hard assets.

Japan's Bond Yields Spiking

Japanese government debt yields just hit record highs. Tokyo looks ready to open the spending taps, and that means less money flowing into U.S. bonds.

Market Overview

Stock Spotlight

LVMH $MC ( ▲ 2.19% )  and Kering $PPRUY ( ▲ 0.13% ) 

Both got crushed in Paris. Luxury brands are freaking out about champagne and wine tariffs.

Siemens Energy $ENRIN.NSE ( ▲ 5.7% ) 

Tanked and pulled the whole German market down. Energy stocks are taking a beating from trade war fears.

Goldman Sachs $GS ( ▲ 4.31% ) 

Thinks these taxes will hurt European growth. The biggest trader in the street is tracking the rising risk of a global trade war.

ING $ING ( ▲ 1.69% ) 

Says oil prices are hanging in there despite the chaos. Energy markets aren't panicking yet.

State Street $STT ( ▲ 2.83% ) 

Watching Japan's "Takaichi trade" unfold. It’s all about positioning for potential policy shifts if Sanae Takaichi gains influence in the snap election. Big money is already making moves.

Bond Market

U.S. 10 year yields just hit their highest point since early September. Japan's spiking yields are pulling everyone else up with them. The global debt pile is turning into a mess.

US10Y: (4.283)

US20Y: (4.876)

Policy Watch

Fed Markets are Pricing in rate cuts this year. But with yields this high, the Fed might not be able to deliver.

Government 

Trump said he'll hammer French wine with tariffs unless they back his peace plan. He wants Greenland locked down by February.

Fiscal & Trade 

Eight European countries are getting hit with new tariffs next month. Those rates could climb a lot more by summer.

International 

The IMF boss told Europe to get its house in order. European leaders are scrambling to figure out how to fight back.

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What to Watch

Today — Netflix $NFLX reports earnings

Wednesday — U.K. inflation numbers drop, Trump speaks at Davos

Friday — Japan dissolves parliament ahead of snap elections

Thanks for reading 🙂

- John

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