January 1st Market Overview

Happy Friday

First trading day of 2026 and the 2025 playbook is already working. Chips making new highs, Tesla losing its crown to Chinese EV tech, gold correcting after its best year ever.

I'm breaking down the themes that matter for this year on Sunday.

Let’s dig in...

Today's Big Picture

Chips Start 2026 Hot Micron 
$MU hit all-time highs. Memory supply is still tight heading into the new year. Google is reportedly cutting its own chip production after losing capacity to Nvidia at TSMC.

Tesla Falls to Second Place 
$TSLA delivered 1.64 million vehicles last year. BYD sold 2.26 million EVs and took the crown. December was brutal in Europe with France and Sweden registrations collapsing. The demand problem is real.

Gold Posts Record Weekly Drop 
Gold futures fell $220 this week to $4,314. Largest weekly drop ever in dollar terms. After the best year in history, a correction was overdue.

Market Overview

Index Performance

Stock Spotlight

Micron Technology $MU ( ▲ 2.59% )  
hit all-time highs. AI demand is keeping memory tight with pricing power intact.

Vertiv $VRT ( ▲ 0.28% )  
got upgraded to overweight at Barclays with a $200 target. Stock pulled back from its $200 high and they're calling it a buying opportunity.

Baidu $BIDU ( ▼ 0.91% )  
will spin off its chip unit Kunlunxin via Hong Kong IPO. AI chip listings are hot there right now.

Sable Offshore $SOC ( ▲ 0.22% )  
rallied after a federal court denied environmentalists' request to halt its California pipeline restart.

Big Name Updates

Alphabet $GOOGL ( ▲ 4.01% )  
reportedly cut its 2026 TPU production target from 4 million to 3 million units. Lost out to Nvidia $NVDA in the fight for TSMC's advanced packaging capacity.

ASML $ASML ( ▲ 0.73% )  
got a double upgrade to buy from sell at Aletheia. Target doubled from 750 to 1500. They see TSMC alone needing 40-45 EUV tools as it expands advanced capacity.

Apple $AAPL ( ▲ 1.54% )  
got a Market Perform from Raymond James on coverage resumption. They say —> fair value, limited upside from here.

Other Notable Company News

Super Micro $SMCI ( ▲ 0.81% )  
launched new liquid-cooled 6U servers powered by Intel Xeon 6900 chips.

Coinbase $COIN ( ▲ 3.26% )  
CEO Armstrong said 2026 is about stablecoins and expanding into stocks and prediction markets alongside crypto.

Nio $NIO ( ▲ 2.84% )  
posted record December car deliveries of 48,135 units. Q4 hit 124,807, near the top of guidance.

Under Armour $UAA ( ▲ 5.58% )  
got reiterated at buy from UBS with an $8 target….implies the stock roughly doubles from here.

Sector Watch

Bond Market

Yields were quiet on day one. The 10-year held around 4.19 as traders wait for next week's employment data. Manufacturing PMI came in at 51.8 for December, slightly below November but still in expansion. Dollar index stayed near 96.

Policy Watch

Tariff Relief 
Trump delayed planned tariff hikes on upholstered furniture, kitchen cabinets, and vanities for one year. The current 25 duty stays, but higher rates won't kick in until 2027.
Wayfair $W, RH $RH, and Williams-Sonoma $WSM all moved higher.

Lumber 
The White House adjusted import rules on timber and lumber products. Worth watching if tracking construction and housing costs.

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What to Watch

CES Conference 
The massive tech show kicks off next week in Las Vegas. Watch for real product demos rather than AI buzzwords.

Tesla Earnings January 28
After the delivery miss and BYD headline, all eyes on the call. Wedbush still has a $600 target and thinks the robotaxi roadmap could push Tesla to $2 trillion.

Small Cap Momentum 
Russell 2000 outperformed on day one. After lagging all of 2025, small caps could benefit from lower rates and cheaper financing. Infrastructure Capital's Hatfield sees regional banks working this year.

Thanks for reading. 🙂

- John

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