January 14th Market Overview

Happy Wednesday

The mood’s shifting a little bit. Bank of America beat. Citi beat. Both got sold. Near all time highs, good isn't good enough?

Chips fell on China confusion. Oil's up five straight days on Iran tension.

Let’s dig in...

Today's Big Picture

Chips

Trump offered Nvidia a loophole to sell H200s to China if the U.S. gets a cut, but Beijing may block the imports anyway. On top of that, China ordered local firms to dump American software including Palo Alto Networks. The whole sector spent the day trying to price in confusion.

Banks Fall on Good News

Bank of America and Citi beat estimates. Wells Fargo missed. All three sold off. When stocks drop on solid earnings near all-time highs, that's exhaustion. Add Trump's credit card rate cap rhetoric and you have a sector under real pressure.

Iran Escalation

Trump canceled all meetings with Iranian officials and told protesters "help is on its way." Iran's IRGC responded that Tehran is at its "highest level of readiness" to respond to any attack. Oil is up five straight days. Exxon hit an all-time high. This is no longer background noise and I’m watching this closely.

Market Overview

Index Performance

Stock Spotlight

Netflix $NFLX ( ▼ 1.96% ) 
is preparing an all-cash $72 billion bid for Warner Bros. Discovery studios and HBO Max. Paramount is pushing a competing offer.

Nvidia $NVDA ( ▼ 1.44% ) 
faced selling pressure as the Trump administration demands tariffs on China sales while Beijing customs may block the chips entirely.

Tesla $TSLA ( ▼ 1.79% ) 
CEO Elon Musk said Full Self-Driving will no longer be sold as a one-time purchase after February 14. Subscription only going forward.

Amazon $AMZN ( ▼ 2.45% ) 
is pushing suppliers for price cuts ahead of the Supreme Court tariff ruling.

Exxon Mobil $XOM ( ▲ 2.89% ) 
reached an all-time high as oil climbed on Middle East tension.

Big Name Updates

Bank of America $BAC ( ▼ 3.78% ) 
posted solid results driven by consumer spending but the stock slid as the sector weakened.

Wells Fargo $WFC ( ▼ 4.61% ) 
dropped after missing revenue estimates and posting disappointing net income per share.

Trip.com $TCOM ( ▼ 17.05% ) 
fell hard on reports that Chinese regulators are investigating the travel agency for antitrust misconduct. On pace for its worst day in seven years.

Palo Alto Networks $PANW ( ▲ 0.04% ) 
declined after China told domestic firms to stop using its security software.

Other Notable Company News

Rivian $RIVN ( ▼ 7.16% ) 
was downgraded to sell at UBS on concerns that valuation has disconnected from sales reality.

TSMC $TSM ( ▼ 1.24% ) 
bought 900 acres in Phoenix to expand its manufacturing campus. Earnings tomorrow.

Lennar $LEN ( ▼ 1.57% ) 
fell after FHFA Director Bill Pulte questioned the homebuilding industry's heavy spending on buybacks.

TG Therapeutics $TGTX ( ▲ 5.99% ) 
raised revenue guidance on strong sales of its MS treatment Briumvi.

SLB $SLB ( ▲ 2.33% ) 
is in talks with U.S. officials to expand in Venezuela as Trump pushes to rebuild the oil sector there.

Sector Watch

Bond Market

Yields ticked higher. PPI came in cool but core inflation remains sticky. Retail sales beat expectations. Tomorrow: 30-year auction and jobless claims.

Policy Watch

Fed Under Pressure

Kashkari said cutting rates now could make inflation worse — notable because he's a 2026 voter. The Lisa Cook case goes to the Supreme Court January 21. If Trump wins the right to fire her, Powell is next.

Credit Card Caps

Trump wants rates capped by January 20. No clear legal path to do it by executive order.

• If it happens, bank lending margins collapse

• Millions of subprime borrowers lose access

• This is why financials can't catch a bid even on good earnings

Greenland

Talks ended today with both sides calling it a "fundamental disagreement." Macron says France backs Denmark. This stays noise until it affects NATO or trade.

Iran

• U.S. pulling some personnel from Qatar's air base

• If strikes happen overnight, oil gaps up and defense stocks could run at the open

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What to Watch

TSMC Earnings
Reports tomorrow. The most important AI demand read this week.

Supreme Court Tariff Ruling
Punted again Wednesday. Still waiting on whether Trump's tariffs are legal and if importers get refunds.

Goldman and Morgan Stanley
Two more banks report Thursday. Will show if the financials selloff has legs.

Jobless Claims
Thursday morning. Looking for cracks.

Senate Stablecoin Hearing
Thursday. Will define whether issuers can pay interest to customers.

Thanks for reading - you are now the more informed 🙂

- John

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