February 9th Market Overview

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Happy Monday

Welcoming another solid green day following up on Friday’s bounce.

This theme keeps popping up so I’m pointing it out: Oracle up 10% and Monday.com down 21% in the same session.

The market keeps drawing a hard line between companies that build AI infrastructure and companies AI might replace. That split is going to define a lot of portfolios this year.

Japan ripped to all-time highs overnight on their election. Gold back over $5,000. Dollar near four-year lows. Lot of crosscurrents but a big data week ahead should sort some of it out.

Let’s dig in...

Today's Big Picture

1. The AI Trade Is Fracturing Oracle
   $ORCL had its best day since September on an upgrade tied to OpenAI's funding. Monday.com $MNDY got crushed on guidance despite beating earnings. Sandisk nearly tripled in three months on memory chip demand. Apollo $APO is bragging about zero software exposure while peers bleed. If AI can replace you, you're getting sold. If you build the infrastructure, you're getting bought.
   

2. The Broadening Trade Is Accelerating
   Equal-weight S&P is up five percent this year. Cap-weighted is up two. Small caps at all-time highs. Tech's forward P/E went from a 17% premium to an 8% discount in one week. JPMorgan and BTIG both say this rotation is sustainable. I think it has room to run but this week's data decides.
   

3. This Week's Data Could Set the Next Move 
   Wednesday we get the delayed January jobs report. ADP printed 22,000 last week. Consensus is 55,000. Friday brings CPI, and January has a habit of printing hot. Goldman says systematic funds are net sellers this week regardless. S&P below 6,707 unlocks up to $80 billion in forced selling. Big week.

Market Overview

Index Performance

Stock Spotlight

Novo Nordisk $NVO ( ▲ 3.63% ) 
gained after Hims & Hers $HIMS pulled its copycat Wegovy pill following FDA pressure. Novo filed a lawsuit on top of it. Hims is on pace for a one-year low.

Oracle $ORCL ( ▲ 9.53% ) 
upgraded to buy at D.A. Davidson. OpenAI has up to $40 billion in cash and may raise another $100 billion this quarter — that money pays for the data centers Oracle is building.

Kroger $KR ( ▲ 4.3% ) 
named former Walmart exec Greg Foran as CEO.

Nexstar $NXST ( ▲ 8.63% ) 
and Tegna $TGNA rose after Trump endorsed their merger, reversing his earlier stance.

Big Name Updates

Nvidia $NVDA ( ▲ 2.44% ) 
and Broadcom $AVGO extended Friday's gains. The bigger AI hardware story is memory chips. DRAM and NAND prices up 80-90% this quarter.
Sandisk nearly tripled in three months. Lam Research $LRCX riding equipment demand.

Alphabet $GOOGL ( ▲ 0.32% ) 
selling bonds in dollars, pounds, and Swiss francs — including 100-year sterling debt. Dollar portion expected around $15 billion. Last March they had less than $11 billion in total long-term debt.

Apollo $APO ( ▲ 0.69% ) 
reported solid earnings while peers got hit. Zero growth software exposure in private equity. Blackstone $BX, KKR $KKR, and TPG all down at least six percent this month. Apollo flat.

Other Notable Company News

STMicroelectronics $STM ( ▲ 9.05% ) 
signed a multibillion-dollar deal to supply chips for Amazon's $AMZN AI infrastructure. A new entrant into the AI chip supply chain.

Roblox $RBLX ( ▲ 10.58% ) 
moved higher after Roth upgraded it to buy following a strong Q4 beat. Users 18 and older grew 50% year-over-year.

Micron $MU ( ▼ 1.88% ) 
traded lower on reports Samsung plans to start mass-producing HBM4 this month for Nvidia's Vera Rubin platform. Share risk in the high-margin HBM market just got real.

Robinhood $HOOD ( ▲ 5.86% ) 
was upgraded to outperform at Wolfe Research.
The bull case: prediction market revenue growth offsets crypto pressure.

Earnings tomorrow after close for robinhood.

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Sector Watch

Bond Market

The 10-year yield ticked down to 4.203%. Not much action there.

The real story is corporate issuance. Alphabet kicked off a massive multi-currency bond sale including 100-year sterling debt and roughly $15 billion in dollar bonds. Oracle issued $25 billion last week. Tech companies are locking in long-duration debt to fund AI buildouts while they still can.

Policy Watch

Fed / Inflation
NY Fed's January survey: one-year inflation expectations fell to 3.1%, lowest since last summer. Three and five-year held at 3%. Friday's CPI will matter more than this.

Trump / Trade

• Trump says he'll meet with Iran early next week, says a deal is reachable

• Credited tariffs for Dow 50,000, predicted 100,000 before his term ends

• UAW President Shawn Fain ripped into tariffs and called out a return of fascism

• Endorsed the Nexstar-Tegna merger, reversing his earlier stance

International 
Bank of France Governor Villeroy is stepping down in June, a year early. Gives Macron a pick before next spring's presidential election and a play at three ECB leadership seats opening in 2027.

MAHA / Food 
Super Bowl ran a Mike Tyson "processed food kills" ad paid for by RFK Jr.'s MAHA Center. Food stocks trailed the market today.

What to Watch

Wednesday: January Jobs Report 
ADP printed 22,000 last week. Consensus is 55,000. Delayed from the shutdown.

Friday: January CPI 
Consensus is 2.5% annual. January printed hot in both 2023 and 2024.

Tuesday Earnings: Coca-Cola and Ford 
Pulse check on whether the rotation into old-economy names has fundamental backing.

Samsung HBM4 Production 
Samsung reportedly cleared Nvidia qualification and starts mass production this month for Vera Rubin. Micron $MU guided Q2 ramp.

Thanks for reading - you are now the more informed 🙂

- John

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