February 12th Market Overview

In partnership with

Happy Thursday

Red screens and red candles everywhere today.

The market opened green then reversed hard as AI fear spread from software into trucking, real estate, and financials in a single session. I'm watching the exits on the software trade closely.

Today's Big Picture

AI Just Became an Old Economy Problem 
A former karaoke machine company called Algorhythm Holdings claimed its AI logistics unit boosted freight volume 300x without adding headcount.

Trucking and logistics stocks got crushed on the news, with names like C.H. Robinson $CHRW falling more than 20. Office landlord CBRE $CBRE dropped to levels only seen during Covid and the financial crisis. The Dow Transports had their worst session since last April's tariff shock.

Good Numbers Are Getting Sold Cisco 
$CSCO and AppLovin $APP both posted solid quarters and got punished anyway. Cisco fell double digits on slightly soft margins. AppLovin beat on every metric with 84 EBITDA margins and still dropped nearly 20. When beat-and-raise prints get sold like this, market psychology has broken.

Flight to Safety Is Accelerating 
Silver fell nearly double digits from its morning price. Bitcoin is back in the 65k range, down more than half from its highs. Treasury yields hit two-month lows and a $25 billion 30-year auction saw record demand. Consumer staples and utilities led all sectors. Watching breadth closely as volume poured out today.

Market Overview

Index Performance

Today’s Sponsor

Stop Selling Your Crypto to Access Cash

Borrow against BTC/ETH without selling - an alternative that may help investors manage tax or market exposure¹.

Selling crypto may create taxable events and limit future gain. Figure’s crypto-backed loans let you unlock liquidity while staying invested².

(1) No hard credit checks
(2) Transparent rates.

Unlock Liquidity

1. _{Obtaining a crypto-backed loan generally does not trigger an upfront taxable event. Tax treatment may vary based on individual circumstances. You should consult your tax advisor regarding any potential tax implications, including those that may arise from a liquidation due to a margin call}

2. _{APR, loan terms, and fees vary. Borrowing against digital assets involves risk and may not be appropriate for all consumers.}
   

Stock Spotlight

Apple $AAPL ( ▼ 4.97% ) 
had its worst day since April. Bloomberg reported the major Siri AI upgrade is delayed by months due to testing problems. The FTC also sent a letter questioning political bias in Apple News. Stock is now down on the year.

Amazon $AMZN ( ▼ 2.21% ) 
fell for the eighth straight day, its longest losing streak since 2019. No specific bad news today. The stock is down more than 16 over that stretch and nearly 20 over the past month.

Crocs $CROX ( ▲ 18.66% ) 
was one of the few winners. Holiday results came in strong and a new fur-lined clog drove demand. Shares ripped more than 20 while the rest of the market bled out.

McDonald's $MCD ( ▲ 2.69% ) 
beat on revenue and same-store sales. The value campaign is working. Stock edged higher while almost everything else cratered.

Big Name Updates

Walmart $WMT ( ▲ 3.98% ) 
and Coca-Cola $KO were the defensive trade of the day. Money rotated out of growth and parked in staples. When the market runs to Walmart and Coke, it's not feeling good about the economy.

Shopify $SHOP ( ▼ 7.14% ) 
got upgraded to buy by MoffettNathanson. Their argument is that the vibe coding sell-off unfairly punished Shopify since it's not really a traditional software company. New target at $150.

MercadoLibre $MELI ( ▼ 0.53% ) 
upgraded to overweight by JPM. Competition in Latin America is easing after Shopee raised take rates last week. Target raised to $2,800.

Other Notable Company News

Novocure $NVCR ( ▲ 19.29% ) 
got FDA approval for its Optune Pax treatment for pancreatic cancer. Stock ripped 20 intraday. This one has been beaten down more than 50 over the past year.

AB InBev $BUD ( ▲ 3.92% ) 
beat on earnings. No-alcohol beer revenue grew 34 in 2025. Michelob Ultra and Busch Light continue to be growth drivers in a flat beer market.

SoftBank invested over $30B into OpenAI for an 11 stake as of December. That position has an estimated $19.8B unrealized gain and now makes up about 30 of SoftBank's NAV.

Sector Watch

Bond Market

Yields fell to two-month lows. The 30-year auction saw record demand, with dealers taking just 5.9 of the sale.

Existing home sales dropped 8.4 in January, the biggest monthly decline in nearly four years. Dollar barely moved. CPI tomorrow.

Policy Watch

Climate Rollback 
Trump revoked the EPA "endangerment finding," the legal basis for most federal greenhouse gas regulation on vehicles and power plants. He called it the largest deregulatory action in American history. Environmental groups will sue.

Senate vs. D.C.
The Senate voted 49-47 to overturn D.C.'s local tax laws, forcing the district to adopt Trump's federal tax cuts. D.C. may have to suspend tax filing for months to rewrite forms.

Food Labeling
A federal judge blocked a Texas law requiring warning labels on 44 food ingredients banned in other countries. First Amendment grounds.

International

• Trump told Netanyahu he prefers a diplomatic deal with Iran. Open to a nuclear-only agreement, not the broader limits Israel wants.

• SCMP reports Trump and Xi may roll back tariffs for up to a year.

• Energy Secretary Wright said China already bought Venezuelan crude the US sold. Called the oil quarantine "basically over."

• Trump said the military will buy "a lot of coal."

What to Watch

CPI Report, Friday Morning 
Delayed January reading. Consensus expects 0.3 on headline and core, annual pace at 2.5. The strong jobs number gives the Fed cover to sit tight. Shelter is the number to watch.

Airbnb and Coinbase Earnings, Tonight 
$ABNB and $COIN both report after close. Coinbase with Bitcoin down more than half from its highs. Airbnb is the better consumer read right now.

Samsung HBM4 Shipments 
Samsung started shipping HBM4 memory chips, going after Nvidia supply. Kioxia guided a massive revenue increase for next quarter.

Thanks for reading - you are now the more informed 🙂

- John

Today’s Sponsor

Turn AI Into Extra Income

You don’t need to be a coder to make AI work for you. Subscribe to Mindstream and get 200+ proven ideas showing how real people are using ChatGPT, Midjourney, and other tools to earn on the side.

From small wins to full-on ventures, this guide helps you turn AI skills into real results, without the overwhelm.

Get Your Free Guide

Today’s partner Disclosures: