Feb 9th Pre-Market

Good morning.

Futures are a little soft to start the week. Japan is ripping on election results and the FDA just drew a line in the sand on GLP-1 copycats. Big data week ahead with delayed jobs Wednesday and CPI Friday.

Let's dig in…

Today's Big Picture

1. Japan's Takaichi Wins Landslide, Nikkei Breaks 56,000 

Takaichi's LDP just won a two-thirds supermajority in Japan's snap election. That's the strongest mandate a Japanese leader has had in years. She can now push through defense spending, fiscal expansion, and deeper U.S. ties without real opposition. The Nikkei hit an all-time high. Four of Buffett's five Japanese trading house bets closed at records. Those positions are up 280% to 832% since Berkshire first bought in 2020.

2. FDA Draws the Line on GLP-1 Copycats 

The FDA warned it's cracking down on compounded GLP-1 weight loss drugs sold at scale. Hims & Hers $HIMS pulled its copycat Wegovy pill. Novo Nordisk $NVO filed a lawsuit on top of it. HIMS is down over 20% premarket to its lowest since late 2024. I think this is bigger than one stock. The FDA just widened the moat around Novo and Eli Lilly's $LLY GLP-1 franchises, and those moats were already pretty damn wide.

3. Delayed Data Meets a Seller's Market 

January jobs land Wednesday and CPI drops Friday, both pushed by the shutdown. ADP showed just 22,000 jobs added last week. Consensus for the BLS number is only 55,000. Here's what makes this week dangerous: Goldman says systematic funds are programmed to sell this week no matter what. Not great timing.

Market Overview

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Stock Spotlight (pre-market)

Micron $MU ( ▼ 1.88% ) 
Under pressure after reports that Samsung will start mass producing HBM4 this month for Nvidia's Vera Rubin platform. Samsung reportedly cleared Nvidia qualification and secured orders. Micron doesn't ramp HBM4 until Q2 , that's a real share-loss window in the highest-margin memory market.

Oracle $ORCL ( ▲ 9.53% ) 
got upgraded by D.A. Davidson on the back of OpenAI refocusing on ChatGPT and aligning with Nvidia, Microsoft, and Amazon instead of competing with them. Up over 4 premarket.

STMicroelectronics $STM ( ▲ 9.05% ) 
landed a multibillion-dollar deal with Amazon $AMZN to supply chips for AI infrastructure. New name in the AI supply chain.

Kroger $KR ( ▲ 4.3% ) 
is naming Greg Foran as its next CEO. Foran ran Walmart U.S. and most recently led Air New Zealand. Up in premarket off strong hire news.

Transocean $RIG ( ▲ 5.57% ) 
is buying Valaris $VAL in a $5.8 billion all-stock deal. Offshore drilling consolidation at scale.

Block $XYZ ( ▲ 1.68% ) 
may cut up to 10 of staff in a broader efficiency overhaul running through late February.

What to Watch

January Jobs Report (Wednesday) 
The numbers to beat are already low. If BLS comes in closer to ADP than consensus, the recession conversation gets loud fast.

January CPI (Friday) 
The Fed needs this to cooperate. A hot print above 2.5 kills the rate cut narrative and puts growth stocks right back in the crosshairs.

Coca-Cola and Ford Earnings (Tuesday)
The rotation out of tech needs somewhere to go. Coca-Cola $KO and Ford $F report Tuesday , if old-economy names deliver, money keeps flowing out of software.

Goldman Traders Warn Selling Isn’t over

Goldman's quant desk is warning that trend-following and volatility-targeting funds have their models set to sell this week regardless of direction. If the S&P drops below 6,707, those same models flip into heavy liquidation mode, potentially $80 billion in forced selling over the next month. Basically, the machines are programmed to sell, and one bad number could make them sell a lot harder.

Thanks for reading 🙂

- John

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