Feb 3rd Pre-Market

Palantir's commercial revenue flipped. Asian markets ripped overnight. Watch commodity flows today.

Author

J.L. Bernstein
February 03, 2026

In partnership with

Good morning.

Calmer day. Tech and metals both climbing, tariff headlines taking a back seat. After the way last week went, I'll take it.

One number worth noting: ISM Manufacturing came in at 52.6% yesterday. This is a monthly survey of factory purchasing managers…. anything above 50 means manufacturing is expanding, below 50 means it's contracting. We've been stuck below 50 for a full year.

Yesterday broke that streak, and new orders hit their highest level since February 2022.The macro backdrop is firmer than the headlines suggest.

Let's dig in...

Today's Big Picture

1. Palantir Posted Numbers That Shouldn't Be Possible

Revenue hit $1.41 billion against $1.33 billion estimates—> 70% year-over-year growth. U.S. commercial revenue jumped 137% YoY. Their Rule of 40 came in at 127%, which is absurd for a company this size.

Full-year 2026 guidance: $7.18 billion. The Street was at $6.22 billion. They're guiding almost a billion above consensus.

After Microsoft's results got software stocks punished last week, Palantir just proved AI spending is alive. It's just picky about where it goes.

2. India Dumps Russian Oil for American Energy

Trump signed a deal that drops tariffs on Indian goods from 25% to 18%. In exchange, India agreed to stop buying Russian oil and shift purchases to the U.S. and potentially Venezuela. That's a direct hit to Russian revenue and a win for American energy exports. India's Sensex closed 2.5% higher. Defense and port stocks led.

3. Musk Merged SpaceX and xAI. Tesla Might Be Next.

Combined valuation: $1.25 trillion. Wedbush says merging Tesla into the structure within 12-18 months is the "holy grail." Musk is consolidating rockets, AI, and potentially EVs into one entity before an IPO. If Tesla gets folded in, you're looking at a single stock that captures all three bets.

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Stock Spotlight (pre-market)

investors want details on the Apple $AAPL ( ▼ 0.13% ) Siri deal. This gives Google access to a massive user base for its AI models.

reports suggest the Open AI deal hit a snag over business discipline. Sam Altman says the rumors are insanity but the stock is reacting.

leadership is in the Senate today over the Warner Bros Discovery $WBD ( ▼ 1.2% ) deal. Lawmakers are worried about competition in the streaming space.

shares are soft after the company signaled price cuts for snacks. They want to lure back shoppers who are feeling the pinch.

saw strong cancer drug growth but warned that acquisitions might slow earnings. Management is focused on buying their way into future growth.

is hiring the HP $HPQ ( ▼ 4.04% ) boss to take over in March. The market wants to see if he can fix their checkout growth. PayPal shares fell 15% premarket, while HP stock slipped.

Advanced Micro Devices $AMD ( ▼ 1.75% ) 

reports after the bell today. I am looking to see if AI demand is spreading beyond the big chip makers.

What to Watch

Government Shutdown Vote (Today):

Lawmakers should vote today to end the partial shutdown. Traders need this resolved to get the delayed jobs data back on schedule.

Richmond Fed Speech:

Thomas Barkin speaks today. His view on manufacturing and inflation will be the main event for bond traders.

Earnings from healthcare and food giants (Today):

Pfizer $PFE ( ▼ 3.34% ), Amgen $AMGN ( ▼ 1.67% ), and Mondelez $MDLZ ( ▲ 1.43% )  Super Micro Computer $SMCI ( ▼ 0.14% ) will also release results today.


Thanks for reading 🙂

- John

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Note: This newsletter is intended for informational purposes only.