Feb 27th Pre-Market

Block guts half its staff. Netflix kills the deal. Iran clock running out.

Author

J.L. Bernstein
February 27, 2026

Good morning.

Wholesale inflation data just dropped and it's not great (PPI). Prices rose faster than anyone expected. That pushes rate cuts further out.

Block fired half its company and replaced people with AI . Netflix walked away from Warner Bros. and is rallying. A lot to unpack before the weekend.

Let's dig in...

Today's Big Picture

1. Netflix Walked Away, Stock jumps 

Netflix killed its bid for Warner Bros. Discovery rather than match Paramount Sky dance's $31-a-share offer. Netflix pockets a $2.8 billion breakup fee.

Stock jumped, Which means the market hated this deal all along. The overhang that wiped $170 billion off Netflix since September is gone. Watch for re rating momentum into next week.

2. Dorsey Just Made AI Layoffs a Boardroom Dare Block 

$XYZ is cutting from 10,000 to under 6,000 employees. Dorsey said AI makes it possible and predicted most companies follow within a year. He raised full-year gross profit guidance to $12.2 billion in the same breath.

The message to every other CEO is simple: cut headcount, show AI leverage, get rewarded. Watch mid-cap software and fintech names with bloated payrolls. If this playbook spreads, the next wave of announcements comes fast.

3. Iran Talks Failed and the Clock Is Still Running 

No deal in Geneva. Technical talks resume in Vienna next week. The U.S. military buildup in the Middle East is the largest since 2003 and Trump gave Iran a 10 to 15 day window 8 days ago.

That window is closing. Oil is up. OPEC+ meets Sunday and is expected to add 137,000 barrels a day. If diplomacy stalls again, the risk premium in crude stays and potentially widens.

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Stock Spotlight (pre-market)

Dell Technologies $DELL ( ▼ 1.64% )  

posted $33.4 billion in revenue, well above estimates. Said AI server revenue doubles next fiscal year. This is the clearest demand signal from the infrastructure side of the AI trade this week.

CoreWeave $CRWV ( ▼ 0.39% )  

plans to spend $30 to $35 billion in capex this year, more than double last year. All tied to Nvidia GPU purchases and data center buildouts. First-quarter guidance missed. The market is asking whether this spending pace is sustainable.

Done with Warner Bros. Collects a $2.8 billion breakup fee and walks away clean. The deal drag that has hung over this stock for six months is officially gone. First real catalyst for multiple expansion since September.

Duolingo $DUOL ( ▲ 5.2% )  

guided first-quarter and full-year bookings below expectations. Down roughly 25 premarket. This is becoming the poster child for what happens to consumer software names when AI disruption fear takes hold.

Cutting 4,000 jobs and restructuring around AI. Dorsey said smaller teams with AI tools will outperform. Fourth-quarter gross profit hit $2.87 billion and the company raised full year guidance to $12.2 billion. The workforce story matters more than the numbers today.

What to Watch

Oman Foreign Minister Meets VP Vance (Today) 

Badr Al Busaidi heads to Washington after mediating the Geneva talks. Any signal on whether diplomacy is advancing or collapsing reprices crude and defense names before the weekend.

OPEC+ Output Decision (Sunday) 

Expected to add 137,000 barrels per day for April. Saudi Arabia is already quietly increasing production. The decision lands while Iran risk is still unresolved. Direction of oil next week starts here.

Berkshire Hathaway Annual Letter and Earnings (Saturday) 

Greg Abel's first letter as CEO. Quarterly results and full 2025 financials drop alongside it. The market wants to know what he does with the record cash pile. Sets tone for value and insurance names Monday morning.

Apple Product Launch (Monday) 

Tim Cook confirmed a rollout begins Monday. Likely new MacBooks and a lower-cost iPhone. Supply chain names and Apple options positioning will start adjusting this afternoon.

Anthropic Pentagon Deadline (5:01 PM ET Today) 

The Defense Department gave Anthropic until close of business today to drop AI usage restrictions or face action under the Defense Production Act. CEO Dario Amodei already said no. How the Pentagon responds sets a precedent for every AI company with government contracts.


Thanks for reading 🙂

- John

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