Feb 26th Pre-Market

Good morning.

Nvidia did everything right last night and got a pat on the back. Software names did everything wrong and got taken out back. Jobless Jobless claims just came in at 212K, below the 217K estimate, labor market won't crack.

The Fed isn't riding in to cut soon with numbers like that. The real estate market is getting shook up and I'll likely do my Sunday deep dive on that.

Let’s dig in…

Today's Big Picture

1. Nvidia Beat And Nobody Cared 

Nvidia did $68.1 billion in revenue, guided to $78 billion next quarter, crushed every estimate. Stock is up about 1 in premarket. At some point, even blowout numbers become table stakes.

The bar for this stock isn't "beat estimates." It's "convince me the next three years look like the last three." That's a harder sell right now.

2. Software Selloff Needs Context 

Trade Desk,C3ai,Salesforce, all bleeding. The market is lumping these together as "AI kills software" but these are three very different businesses with three very different problems.

Trade Desk missed on guidance. C3 flat out whiffed on execution. Salesforce actually beat on Q4 but couldn't calm fears about the future. Not every software dip is a buying opportunity, but this kind of panic selling rarely prices things right either.

3. Oil Is Dropping On Iran And Supply 

WTI crude fell to around $64.3 this morning. U.S.-Iran nuclear talks resume in Geneva today and Iran is signaling some flexibility. At the same time, Saudi Arabia is about to ship the most crude in nearly three years and other Gulf producers are ramping too.

If talks go well and OPEC+ boosts output at its next meeting, oil has more room to fall.

Market Overview

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Stock Spotlight (pre-market)

Nvidia $NVDA ( ▲ 1.41% )  

posted $68.1 billion in Q4 revenue and guided Q1 to $78 billion. Both numbers above even the most bullish buyside calls. CEO Jensen Huang went on CNBC and said the market "got it wrong" on AI killing software. Physical AI revenue, including robotaxis and robotics, hit $6 billion for the fiscal year.

Nutanix $NTNX ( ▲ 1.53% )  

landed a multiyear AI infrastructure deal with AMD $AMD ( ▼ 1.39% ), which is putting $150 million into the company. This gives AMD a hardware-software stack to compete with Nvidia's ecosystem. That's the real signal here.

Trade Desk $TTD ( ▲ 0.88% )  

guided Q1 EBITDA to $195 million. Street wanted $223 million. Q4 beat doesn't matter when forward guidance misses by that much in this environment.

C3 ai $AI ( ▲ 1.88% )  

reported revenue of $53.3 million against a $76 million estimate. That's not a miss. That's a credibility problem. The loss per share also came in wider than expected.

IonQ $IONQ ( ▲ 6.23% )  

Q1 revenue to $48-51 million. The Street had $36 million. Full-year guide of $225-245 million also crushed the $191 million consensus. Quantum computing names don't usually deliver numbers like this.

Dell Technologies $DELL ( ▲ 3.09% )  

reports after the bell today. AI server demand is the only line that matters. This will tell us whether the infrastructure buildout is broadening beyond Nvidia's direct customers.

CoreWeave $CRWV ( ▼ 1.3% )  

also reports after the bell. They rent Nvidia GPUs to AI companies. If their numbers are strong, it confirms demand is real downstream. If not, it raises questions about who's actually using all these chips.

What to Watch

U.S.-Iran Headlines From Geneva (Any-time Today)

Any deal framework sends oil lower fast. Any breakdown or military escalation talk sends it higher. Betting markets have better than 50-50 odds on a limited U.S. strike within a month. Energy desks are watching every headline.

Tariff Escalation Risk 

Trade Rep Greer said rates go to 15 or higher for some countries. No names yet. When names drop, the stocks with the most exposure to those countries will move immediately. The Supreme Court killed the old tariff authority last week and no one knows which deals still hold. Any clarity either way moves multinationals and importers.

Thanks for reading 🙂

- John

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