Feb 25th Pre-Market

Good morning.

Futures are green. The calendar ischaotic.

Trump gave the longest State of the Union ever last night. Two hours of victory laps on an economy most Americans aren't feeling yet. Nvidia after the bell is the event, and it lands in a market that's been trading AI mood swings more than fundamentals for weeks.

Let's dig into it...

Today's Big Picture

1. Nvidia Tonight Is A $230 Billion Coin Flip 

Wall Street expects $1.53 EPS on $65.8 billion in revenue. The company has beaten for 13 straight quarters but the stock dropped after half of its last ten prints. Options are pricing roughly 5 points of movement in either direction. Data center revenue and the Q1 guide are the only two lines that matter tonight.

2. The Software Scare Trade Isn't Over 

Anthropic's partnership focused launch gave the sector a bounce yesterday. Then Workday $WDAY guided weak overnight, with HR workflows named as a direct AI target. The S&P 500 software index is down 23 on the year. Until earnings stabilize across the group, every AI headline is a landmine.

3. Iran Deadline Hits Early March And Oil Knows It 

Trump's 10 to 15 day window for a deal is creeping up. Geneva talks resume Thursday. WTI is sitting near $66 with Brent at $71, both near seven-month highs. If talks collapse, Swissquote sees WTI heading toward $80. If a deal lands, that premium unwinds fast.

Market Overview

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Stock Spotlight (pre-market)

Salesforce $CRM ( ▲ 4.08% )  

Reports right after Nvidia tonight. The software sector is down 23 on the year and this is the biggest enterprise name left to report. If guidance holds, it could stabilize the whole group.

First Solar $FSLR ( ▲ 0.44% )  

Full year revenue to $4.9-$5.2 billion. Street wanted $6.12 billion. That's not a miss, that's a gap. Q4 EPS came in at $4.84 versus $5.15 expected.

Workday $WDAY ( ▲ 0.79% )  

Q1 subscription revenue at $2.34 billion, just below the $2.35 billion consensus. Normally a rounding error. Not when your core product sits directly in AI's crosshairs. Watch whether this drags Salesforce $CRM ( ▲ 4.08% )  sentiment into the close.

Axon Enterprise $AXON ( ▲ 4.5% )  

beat Q4 on both lines. $2.15 EPS versus $1.60 expected, revenue $797 million versus $755 million. Guided 2026 revenue growth above Street estimates. Defense and public safety keep printing while software bleeds.

Cava Group $CAVA ( ▼ 0.81% )  

crossed $1 billion in annual revenue for the first time. Q4 beat on earnings and revenue. Same-store sales guidance of 3-5 for 2026 topped expectations. This is the restaurant growth name right now.

Nvidia $NVDA ( ▲ 0.68% )  

up slightly ahead of tonight's print. Trading at 24 times forward earnings, nearly 30 below its three-year average multiple. The stock is only up 2 on the year. The discount is either a buying opportunity or the market telling you something. We find out at 4:01.

What to Watch

After The Bell:

Nvidia, Salesforce, Snowflake Three names that could individually move the market, all reporting tonight.

For Nvidia, data center revenue and the Q1 guide around $72 billion are the numbers. Blackwell Ultra shipments and China commentary are the wildcards. Salesforce and Snowflake need to prove enterprise software spending is holding up.

U.S.-Iran Nuclear Talks, Geneva (Thursday)
Trump's deadline expires early March. Polymarket prices a 37 chance of a U.S. strike by March 7. If talks fail, WTI pushes past $70. If a deal surfaces, the oil premium unwinds and defense names give back gains.

Three Fed Speakers Today 
Barkin, Schmid, and Musalem. Two officials yesterday showed zero appetite to cut. Bond traders are quietly pricing cuts extending into 2027 on fears AI reshapes the labor market faster than expected. Listen for any acknowledgment of that shift.

Thanks for reading 🙂

- John

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