Feb 24th Pre-Market

Good morning.

Lots of noise this morning but most of the real catalysts are still ahead. Trump speaks tonight. Nvidia reports tomorrow. A $100 billion chip deal just landed before breakfast.

The moves that matter happen in the next 48 hours.

Let's dig in…

Today's Big Picture

1. AMD-Meta Deal Changes the Nvidia Story 
AMD $AMD locked in a $100 billion five-year chip deal with Meta $META, including warrants for up to 160 million shares. Meta starts deploying the chips later this year. Nvidia $NVDA reports tomorrow. DA Davidson says Nvidia is "not a bellwether anymore" and the stock is pricing in a 2026 peak. That matters when Jensen Huang takes the stage Wednesday night.

2. Tariffs Are Live at 10 but 15 Is Still Coming 
The global levy kicked in at midnight at 10%. The White House says 15% is coming but hasn't set a date. The EU froze its trade deal. India pulled out of talks. China said it's open to a sixth round of negotiations but isn't making promises. At 15 it goes back to about 12.

The admin is also quietly launching national security probes into batteries, grid equipment, and chemicals. More tariffs could follow. Trump speaks tonight and any escalation moves futures before Wednesday's open.

3. State of the Union Is Today’s Risk Event 
Trump takes the podium at 9 PM ET. Markets want to know three things. Does he escalate on tariffs. Does he escalate on Iran. Or does he pull back. WSJ reports he'll pitch pledges from tech companies to cap electricity costs from AI data centers. Consumer confidence drops at 10 AM after January's weakest reading since 2014. If tonight spooks and Nvidia disappoints tomorrow, this week turns fast.

Market Overview

Today’s Sponsor

Meet America’s Newest $1B Unicorn

It just surpassed a $1B valuation, joining private US companies like SpaceX and OpenAI. Unlike those companies, you can invest in EnergyX today. Industry giants like General Motors and POSCO already have. Why? EnergyX’s tech can recover 3X more lithium than traditional methods. Now, they’re preparing 100,000+ acres of lithium-rich Chilean land for commercial production. Buy private EnergyX shares alongside 40k+ people at $11/share through 2/26.

Invest in EnergyX Today

_{This is a paid advertisement for EnergyX Regulation A offering. Please read the offering circular at invest.energyx.com. Under Regulation A, a company may change its share price by up to 20% without requalifying the offering with the Securities and Exchange Commission.}

Stock Spotlight (pre-market)

Advanced Micro Devices $AMD ( ▼ 1.77% )  

Moving premarket after inking the Meta deal. This is the second mega supply agreement after the OpenAI pact last year. Lisa Su is building a real pipeline against Nvidia and the market is finally pricing it in.

Home Depot $HD ( ▼ 1.38% )  

Beat on both lines. Earned $2.72 versus the $2.54 estimate on $38.2 billion in revenue. Held its full-year outlook and said no more price hikes after raising them last year to offset tariffs. Up about 3% before the bell.

Nvidia $NVDA ( ▲ 0.91% )  

Stock held up and stayed strong while the rest of tech got hit. Stifel kept its $250 target and says we're still early innings. The AMD-Meta deal changes the narrative walking into the print. Jensen Huang needs to deliver.

Novo Nordisk $NVO ( ▼ 16.43% )  

Still in freefall. CagriSema lost the head-to-head trial against Eli Lilly's $LLY ( ▲ 4.86% )  Zepbound. Stock is at its lowest since 2021. Market cap is now a third of its peak from early last year.

Apple $AAPL ( ▲ 0.61% )  

Moving Mac Mini production to Houston with Foxconn and plans to buy more than 100 million chips from TSMC $TSM Arizona this year. That's one fab already producing, a second due next year, a third by 2030. This is tariff proofing in real time and the $600 billion U.S. investment pledge gives Apple government cover no other tech company has.

Netflix $NFLX ( ▼ 3.37% )  

Still in the middle of a messy bidding war. Paramount submitted an enhanced offer for Warner Bros. Discovery $WBD that improves on its $30 a share all cash bid. WBD shareholders vote March 20. Ted Sarandos played down Trump's threat to force Susan Rice off the board. Stock is down 42% from its June peak.

What to Watch

Consumer Confidence (10:00 AM ET) 
January was the weakest reading since 2014. Another miss and retail stocks sell into the close ahead of tonight's speech.

Anthropic Product Event (This Morning) 
This is what rattled software stocks yesterday before it even started. Big announcements and CrowdStrike $CRWD, Salesforce $CRM, Palo Alto $PANW go lower. Nothing new and those beaten-up names bounce. The S&P software index is down nearly a quarter this year. Today tips the direction.

Oil and Iran (Thursday) 
Third round of nuclear talks. Trump said he'd decide on military action within 10 days. Brent crude just turned positive on the year for the first time in over a year. If talks fall apart, oil and defense names move fast.

Thanks for reading 🙂

- John

Today’s Sponsor

Will Your Retirement Income Last?

A successful retirement can depend on having a clear plan. Fisher Investments’ The Definitive Guide to Retirement Income can help you calculate your future costs and structure your portfolio to meet your needs. Get the insights you need to help build a durable income strategy for the long term.

Download Your Free Guide