Feb 19th Pre-Market

Good morning.

Futures are giving back some of yesterday's gains. Oil is at its 2026 highs on Iran tension, Walmart expects to earn slightly less this year than Wall Street wanted, and this morning's jobs data just made rate cuts even less likely. Three stories, all pointing the same direction.

Let's dig in…

Today's Big Picture

1.Oil Is At Its 2026 Highs On Iran 
Brent is above $71 after reports a U.S. military strike could come this weekend. Iran partially closed the Strait of Hormuz and started naval drills with Russia. Around 13 million barrels a day flow through that chokepoint. Higher oil means higher inflation and less reason for the Fed to cut. If this keeps running, it becomes everyone's problem.

2. Walmart Beat But The Outlook Stung Walmart
$WMT had a clean quarter but guided full-year earnings to $2.75-$2.85, about a dime below the Street. Consumers are still spending on groceries but pulling back on everything else. When the most defensive name in retail guides light, that says plenty. Stock is down premarket and dragging Dow futures with it.

3. Fed Isn't Cutting And This Morning's Data Proves It 
January minutes showed no rush to lower rates. A few officials even talked about raising them. Jobless claims this morning came in at 206K, well below the 225K expected. Job market is still strong. That makes rate cuts even harder to justify. Tomorrow's PCE inflation print is the next number that matters.

Market Overview

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Stock Spotlight (pre-market)

eBay $EBAY ( ▲ 3.29% ) 
beat estimates and is buying secondhand fashion marketplace Depop from Etsy $ETSY for $1.2 billion in cash. Depop did about $1 billion in sales last year with 7 million active buyers, almost all under 34.

Carvana $CVNA ( ▼ 7.95% ) 
missed quarterly earnings despite record car sales. The stock is selling off hard premarket.

Klarna $KLAR ( ▼ 26.73% ) 
swung to a quarterly loss even as revenue grew and banking customers more than doubled. Stock is down big before the bell.

Airbus $EADSY ( ▼ 6.74% ) 
set a lower-than-expected delivery target for this year. Pratt & Whitney engine shortages forced it to slow A320 production. Shares are down in Paris.

Molson Coors $TAP ( ▼ 4.86% ) 
missed on the top line. The company is leaning into value beers like Keystone Light and Miller High Life to meet Americans tightening their spending.

Deere $DE ( ▲ 11.46% ) 
said demand in construction and small ag is recovering. Stock is up before the open.

Occidental Petroleum $OXY ( ▲ 9.47% ) 
beat profit estimates. Rising oil prices on Iran tensions are giving the whole energy sector a lift.

What to Watch

Three Fed Speakers Today 
Bowman, Bostic, and Goolsbee all speak today. After yesterday's minutes showed no appetite for cutting rates, listen for whether anyone disagrees. That's your signal on where rates are headed next.

Gold Above $5,000
This is the market's real-time read on Iran. If it holds here by tomorrows close, money is positioning for things to get worse.

Iran (All Day) 
Can flip everything at any moment. Oil, gold, defense stocks all move on a single headline.

Thanks for reading 🙂

- John

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