Feb 17th Pre-Market

Good morning.

Futures are red to start a short week and tech is dragging things down again. Easy to feel gloomy about it. But CPI came in cool last week, most companies are beating earnings, and three big activist investors just piled into new positions overnight.

Smart money is buying, not hiding just yet.

Let's dig in…

Today's Big Picture

1. Three Activist Campaigns Landed Overnight

Elliott bought more than a tenth of Norwegian Cruise Line and wants a turnaround. Jana Partners got into Fiserv and is pushing for changes. Starboard is going after Tripadvisor's board.

None of them are takeovers. They're activist investors who bought big positions and are now pressuring management to run the companies differently.

2. Big Week Ahead With Not Much Cushion

Fed minutes Wednesday. Walmart earnings Thursday. PCE and an advance GDP read on Friday. All of that lands while the Nasdaq is sitting on five straight losing weeks. Last week's CPI came in cool but the market barely reacted. Friday's PCE will tell us whether a June rate cut is real or wishful thinking.

3. Tech Is Sliding Again On The First Day Back 

Futures are pointing lower with Nasdaq leading the drop. Nvidia, Meta, Palantir, and the chip names are all red in premarket. The AI disruption theme from last week hasn't gone away over the long weekend. Alibaba released a new AI model overnight which isn't helping the mood.

Market Overview

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Stock Spotlight (pre-market)

Norwegian Cruise Line $NCLH ( ▲ 12.15% ) 
is moving after Elliott disclosed a stake above 10 and wants a turnaround. This name hasn't had a catalyst like this in a long time.

Masimo $MASI ( ▲ 34.22% ) 
is in play after reports that Danaher is buying it for almost $10 billion. Watch the spread between offer and market price for a read on whether the Street thinks this actually closes.

Nvidia $NVDA ( ▲ 1.18% ) 
Susquehanna kept a $250 target. New data from SemiAnalysis shows the latest Blackwell chips running 50 times more efficient than last generation. Earnings land next Tuesday and nothing else matters for this stock until then.

Fiserv $FISV ( ▲ 6.89% ) 
is active after Jana Partners took a position and started pushing for changes. The stock has been a fintech laggard and Jana sees a fix. I'm watching to see if this holds through the open.

Genuine Parts $GPC ( ▼ 14.56% ) 
announced a split of its auto-parts and industrial-parts businesses into two public companies. Management thinks a breakup unlocks value. The market isn't buying it yet.

Palo Alto Networks $PANW ( ▼ 2.07% ) 
reports after the bell. Cyber names have been choppy and this print sets the tone for the group. About a quarter of the S&P 500 still hasn't reported this season.

What to Watch

Empire Manufacturing and Housing Sentiment (Today)
Empire expected at 8.7. Housing sentiment has been weak with rates stuck above 4. Both are early reads on whether businesses and builders are feeling the slowdown.

U.S.-Iran Nuclear Talks (Today, Geneva) 
Indirect talks kick off with no signs of compromise. Ukraine-Russia peace discussions also start in Geneva. Defense stocks in Europe already sliding.

Fed Speakers: Barr and Daly (Today) 
Both speak today. Any comments on rate path will get picked apart.

Earnings After The Bell: Palo Alto Networks
Cyber names have been choppy. This print sets the tone for the group.

Thanks for reading 🙂

- John

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