Feb 11th Pre-Market

Good morning.

Wall Street expected 55,000 jobs. We got 130,000.

Futures are ripping on the news. Worth mentioning the gov’t also revised 2025 way down the economy only added 184,000 jobs all year. That's the weakest since 2020. Good headline, ugly fine print today.

Let’s dig in… 

Today's Big Picture

1. Jobs Report Blows The Doors Off 
The economy added 130,000 jobs in January, more than double what economists expected. Unemployment ticked down to 4.3 instead of holding at 4.4. But the BLS also revised 2025 payrolls down by 400,000 jobs — the economy only added 184,000 jobs all of last year, not the 584,000 originally reported. Strong headline, weak foundation.

2. AI Fear Trade Goes Global 
After Altruist launched an AI-powered tax planning tool Tuesday, wealth management stocks got hammered across the globe. St. James's Place lost roughly an eighth of its value in London. FinecoBank, Julius Baer, and DWS all fell in Europe. This is the second week straight where an AI product launch triggered a sell-the-losers panic.

3. Mattel's Holiday Season Was A Disaster Mattel 
$MAT is staring at its worst single-day drop in over 26 years. Holiday sales came up short, forcing heavy discounting that crushed margins. The 2026 guidance was ugly. Price-sensitive consumers waited for deals and the toymaker blinked first.

Market Overview

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Stock Spotlight (pre-market)

Shopify $SHOP ( ▼ 9.74% ) 
guided first-quarter revenue growth in the low-thirties. Wall Street expected 25. Stock flew in premarket.

Ford $F ( ▲ 0.77% ) 
lost $11.1 billion last quarter. Largest loss in company history, mostly from EV write-downs. Ford doesn't expect EVs to make money until 2029. Tariffs cost $2 billion last year and they expect the same this year. Stock still inched up premarket because cash flow guidance was better than feared.

Kraft Heinz $KHC ( ▲ 0.38% ) 
killed its planned split into two companies. New CEO Steve Cahillane wants to fix the business first. The problem: 2026 EPS guidance came in at $1.98 to $2.10. The street had $2.50.

Moderna $MRNA ( ▼ 3.37% ) 
fell after the FDA refused to even review its new flu vaccine application. Moderna says that contradicts what the FDA told them before they started trials. Hard not to see RFK Jr.'s fingerprints on this one.

Robinhood $HOOD ( ▼ 10.01% ) 
missed on revenue. $1.28 billion versus $1.34 billion expected. Crypto business slowed late in the year. Retail trading held up but couldn't cover the gap.

Lyft $LYFT ( ▼ 17.12% ) 
dropped after weak Q1 guidance and a surprise 2025 operating loss. The comeback story just got harder to tell.

What to Watch

Friday's CPI Report 
The most important print of the week. After today's jobs beat, a hot inflation number kills the June rate-cut trade.

Cisco Earnings After The Close Cisco
$CSCO reports tonight with a new AI networking chip aimed directly at Nvidia $NVDA. Enterprise AI spending commentary will move more than the numbers.

Job Revision Nobody's Talking About 
2025 only produced 184,000 total jobs after revisions. That's the weakest since 2020. Today's headline beat buries it, but the bond market won't forget.

Thanks for reading 🙂

- John

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