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- Everything's at ATH. Here's what I'm watching.
Everything's at ATH. Here's what I'm watching.
When every hedge has run, here are the only 3 plays that make sense...
J.L. Bernstein
October 19, 2025
In partnership with
Happy Sunday
OK so:
The dollar IS inflating (down 15-20% purchasing power since 2020)
Stocks ARE expensive (Mag 7 at 28.3x forward P/E)
Crypto has RIPPED (BTC at $110k = 60% above 2021 peak, new ATH territory)
Europe is in structural decline (anemic growth, energy crisis, demographic collapse)
China has a trust problem (property implosion, regulatory risk, capital flight)
Gold has DOUBLED ($4,267 = 124%ish move from 2020)
What the heck do people buy right now?
You can’t say “nothing” because that means “buy dollars”—which seems crazy when the dollar just lost 15-20% of its purchasing power.
You know I don’t give stock picks. I’m not a guru and don’t want to be. But I do think this dilemma is worth discussing.
I see three viable paths forward:
Contrarian value - Buy what’s been destroyed (long-duration bonds down 63%, REITs down 15%, energy down 13%)
Intermediate bonds - Stable yield at 3-5%, lower volatility than stocks, defensive positioning
Cash position - T-bills earning 4-5%, almost zero risk, max optionality for the correction (that may never come)
A bubble is a bull market in which you don’t have a position.
1.Contrarian Value Rankings on ETF’s
% Below 10-Year Highs -As of October 17, 2025
Rank | Ticker | Fund Name | % Below 10-Year High | Category |
|---|---|---|---|---|
1 | EDV | Vanguard Extended Duration Treasury Index Fd ETF | 63.09% | Long Duration Bond |
2 | PSCC | Invesco S&P SmallCap Consumer Staples ETF | 19.89% | Consumer Staples |
3 | REZ | iShares Residential and Multisector Real Estate | 15.87% | Real Estate |
4 | BYLD | iShares Yield Optimized Bond ETF | 13.95% | Intermediate Bond |
5 | XLE | Energy Select Sector SPDR Fund | 13.13% | Energy |
6 | SYLD | Cambria Shareholder Yield ETF | 12.85% | Mid Value |
7 | IHI | iShares US Medical Devices ETF | 11.10% | Health |
8 | CTA | Simplify Managed Futures Strategy ETF | 9.32% | Managed Futures |
9 | BRK.B | Berkshire Hathaway Inc Class B | 9.16% | Financials |
10 | IJT | iShares S&P Small-Cap 600 Growth ETF | 7.68% | Small Growth |
11 | EYLD | Cambria Emerging Shareholder Yield Etf | 7.57% | Diversified EM Mid |
Essentially bonds, real estate and energy.
Yes, I snuck in Berkshire Hathaway because to me they are essentially a ETF w/40+ public equity positions
2. That brings us to the next school of thought, if we absolutely cant sit in cash but equities are at raging valuations…well we always have bonds.
click me for enlargement
click me for enlargement
5 Best U.S. Intermediate Bond ETFs to Own Long Term
1. $FBND ( ▲ 0.32% ) - Fidelity Total Bond ETF
2. $BOND ( ▲ 0.19% ) - PIMCO Active Bond Exchange-Traded Fund
3. $BIV ( ▲ 0.14% ) - Vanguard Intermediate-Term Bond ETF
4. $CMBS ( ▲ 0.01% ) - iShares CMBS ETF
5. $IUSB ( ▲ 0.13% ) - iShares Core Total USD Bond Market ETF
Here is the strongest contrarian I resonate with
3. Cash is a Position
As long as Jerome Powell runs the Federal Reserve, the dollar isn't going to collapse. Everyone who was betting against the dollar has already made their movethey bought gold, crypto, and stocks as inflation hedges. Those trades have already run their course and pushed prices to extreme levels.
When too many people pile into the same trade, things reverse to their average. We're starting to see signs of this in charts last week. So the “smart” play is to hold cash for the next few months and wait for asset prices to pull back, then buy at better prices.
This deserves serious consideration.
When gold is at $4,267, BTC at $110k, and the S&P 500 is 1.43% from all-time highs, the crowd has already positioned for debasement. The trade worked. The question is: are you early or late?
The Case for Cash Right Now: You're Getting Paid to Wait
Treasury Bills (T-Bills)
4-week: 4.33%
3-month: 4.32%
6-month: 4.29%
1-year: 4.17%
Money Market Funds
Top rates: 4.20-4.26% APY
Vanguard Federal (VMFXX): ~4.13%
Fidelity (SPRXX): ~3.85%
National average: 0.47% APY
High-Yield Savings Accounts
Best available: 4.85-5.00% APY
Competitive range: 4.20-4.51% APY
The Hardest Trade is Doing Nothing
FOMO is real. Watching others make money while you sit in cash is psychologically brutal. Discomfort is often the signal you're positioned correctly.
Historical Precedent:
The best investors sit on SOME cash for YEARS waiting for opportunities:
Buffett held record cash 2017-2020, got crucified for it, then deployed massively in March 2020
Druckenmiller went to cash in 1999, missed the final melt-up, avoided the crash
Marks/Klarman regularly hold 20-40% cash when they can't find value
Not financial advice. Do your own research. I just think it's an interesting topic.
Stay curious 🙂
- John
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