December 9th Market Overview

Happy Tuesday

Russell 2000 made all-time highs (small caps). Same day, small business price expectations had their biggest one month jump in survey history.

53 years this survey has been going on… whats hitting them so hard? I think we are all feeling this.

Wall Street is betting on cuts. Small business owners are signaling the sharpest shift toward raising prices since 1973.

Powell picks a side tomorrow. I'm not sure he knows which one yet either.

Let’s dig in...

Today's Big Picture

Small Business Inflation Expectations Hit 50-Year Record

The NFIB survey showed small business owners expecting to raise prices jumped 13 points in a single month. That's the largest one-month spike since 1973. If these expectations show up in actual prices, the Fed's rate cut path gets a lot narrower.

Fed ready to Cut Tommrow, But 2026 Is The Question

The Fed is almost certain to cut rates tomorrow. Goldman Sachs predicts hawkish dot plots and at least two dissenters. The odds of one or no cuts next year jumped to 38% from 18% since Thanksgiving. Kevin Hassett, the favorite to replace Powell in May, recently said rates may need to stay higher for longer.

Silver Futures Break $60 for the First Time

Silver futures closed above $60 per ounce for the first time, settling at $61.17. Spot prices are slightly lower. The metal is up roughly 103% this year, well ahead of gold's 58% gain.

Industrial demand from solar and electronics is stacking on top of dollar weakness and rate cut bets.

Market Overview

Index Performance

Stock Spotlight

Nvidia $NVDA ( ▼ 0.39% ) 
got Trump's approval to sell H200 chips to China with a 25% cut going to the U.S. government. China is reportedly planning to limit access to the chips anyway.

Exxon Mobil $XOM ( ▲ 1.83% ) 
raised its 2030 earnings forecast by $5 billion without increasing capex. New drilling technology is improving Permian oil recovery by a fifth. CFO Kathryn Mikells is retiring due to health issues.

CVS Health $CVS ( ▲ 3.21% ) 
raised its annual outlook and guided for profit growth next year. Management is targeting mid-teens EPS growth through 2028.

Big Name Updates

Home Depot $HD ( ▼ 1.24% ) 
gave a cautious 2026 outlook at its investor day. Comps expected flat to up 2%, EPS flat to up 4%. High rates are still keeping homeowners from starting big projects.

Tesla $TSLA ( ▲ 1.69% ) 
pushing hard for year-end deliveries with 0% APR for up to 72 months on Model 3 and Y. Clearing inventory after the $7,500 EV credit expired.

Microsoft $MSFT ( ▲ 0.2% ) 
announced $17.5 billion for India and $5.4 billion for Canada over two years for cloud and AI infrastructure.

Other Notable Company News

AutoZone $AZO ( ▼ 6.87% ) 
missed on both earnings and revenue. Same-store sales came in slightly negative.

Ares Management $ARES ( ▲ 7.6% ) 
rallied on news it will join the S&P 500, replacing Kellanova $K.

Twenty One Capital $XXI ( 0.0% ) 
fell sharply on its first trading day despite holding $4 billion in Bitcoin.

Campbell's $CPB ( ▼ 5.23% ) 
dropped after posting weaker results. The leaked exec recording from Thanksgiving didn't help.

Accenture $ACN ( ▲ 1.14% ) 
signed a three-year deal to train 30,000 employees on Anthropic's Claude.

Waymo $GOOGL ( ▲ 1.1% ) 
is now completing 450,000 paid rides per week, nearly double April's volume.

Sector Watch

Bond Market

Ten-year yields ticked up to 4.18%, the highest end-of-day level since September. Traders expect a hawkish Fed message even with a rate cut priced in.

• Tomorrow: $39 billion reopened 10-year notes

• Thursday: $22 billion 30-year bond auction

Policy Watch

Federal Reserve

Powell speaks Wednesday afternoon. The cut is priced in at 87% odds. What matters is his tone on 2026. Goldman expects he'll signal the bar for future cuts has risen.

Labor Market

October JOLTS showed 7.67 million job openings, basically unchanged and above expectations. The details were soft:

• Hires dropped to 5.15 million, lowest since data was restated

• Quits fell to 2.94 million, lowest since August 2020

People are staying put.

Trade

Trump authorized a 5% tariff threat on Mexico over water treaty compliance. Same day he approved Nvidia China sales.

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What to Watch

Fed Decision

Wednesday 2:30 PM ET. Watch the dot plot for 2026 projections and how many officials dissent.

Broadcom Earnings

Thursday after the bell. Stock hit an all-time high Monday on reports Microsoft might move chip business from Marvell $MRVL to Broadcom $AVGO.

Oracle Earnings

Wednesday after the bell. Stock is down 8% over three months despite a debt-financed AI buildout. They need to show progress on the OpenAI cloud deal.

Costco Earnings

Thursday. Same-store sales will tell us if the holiday season is meeting expectations.

Thanks for reading 🙂

- John

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