December 29th Market Overview

Happy Monday

Quiet today as traders square up before year-end. Metals were the real focus… CME raised margin requirements Friday and silver had its worst day since 2021. Leverage unwinding in precious metals but I don’t think this theme is over.

Also Buffett's last week running Berkshire. End of an era.

Let’s dig in...

Today's Big Picture

Silver Gets a Margin Call
CME Group raised margin requirements, forcing traders to either cough up cash or sell immediately. Silver futures suffered their worst daily drop since 2021, dragging gold down with it. Platinum and palladium got hit even harder. When exchanges change the rules, speculative leverage unwinds fast. There is a lot to this story.

Buffett's Last Week
Warren Buffett is stepping down as Berkshire Hathaway CEO at year's end. That's this week. The 95-year-old built a $900B+ conglomerate over six decades and shaped how generations think about investing. Greg Abel takes the reins.

Burry Bets Against the AI Trade
Michael Burry revealed puts betting Nvidia drops to $110 and Palantir to $50 by 2027. Small positions, but meaningful from the guy who called the housing crisis. Both stocks pulled back Monday as tech took profits into year-end. Some fear in a greedy sector is healthy.

Market Overview

Index Performance

Stock Spotlight

General Motors $GM ( ▲ 0.34% ) 
is finishing 2025 as the top-performing U.S. automaker, beating Tesla and Ford. CEO Mary Barra says consistent earnings are finally getting respect from Wall Street.

DigitalBridge $DBRG ( ▲ 0.23% ) 
gained after SoftBank announced a $4 billion acquisition at $16 per share. The Japanese giant continues loading up on AI infrastructure.

Ultragenyx $RARE ( ▼ 1.21% ) 
dropped to all-time lows after its bone disease treatment failed two key trials. Biotech is binary.

Coupang $CPNG ( ▼ 2.58% ) 
rose for a second session after reports confirmed the hacker who stole customer data has deleted the information.

Big Name Updates

Walmart $WMT ( ▲ 3.95% ) 
is beating the S&P 500 again this year while Target and Home Depot lag behind. They moved their listing to the Nasdaq to highlight their tech focus.

UnitedHealth $UNH ( ▲ 1.66% ) 
is on track to be the worst performer in the Dow this year. Despite the drop, most analysts still rate it a buy.

Lululemon $LULU ( ▼ 3.3% ) 
rose as founder Chip Wilson launched a proxy fight to reshape the board while they hunt for a new CEO.

AMD $AMD ( ▼ 2.89% ) 
has quietly outperformed Nvidia $NVDA this year. The chip underdog is up more than Nvidia heading into 2026.

Other Notable Company News

Fox Corp $FOXA ( ▼ 7.25% ) 
hit new highs dating back to its 2019 split from Disney.

Chubb $CB ( ▲ 1.94% ) 
reached an all-time high extending back to 1993.

Newmont $NEM ( ▼ 3.46% ) 
dropped as the gold selloff hammered mining stocks.

Southern Copper $SCCO ( ▼ 3.17% ) 
fell alongside other miners on the metals rout. Copper hit record highs in London earlier before reversing.

Disney $DIS ( ▼ 5.23% ) 
saw "Avatar: Fire and Ash" hold the top box office spot for a second weekend.

Praxis Precision Medicines $PRAX ( ▲ 2.85% ) 
moved higher after analysts named it a top pick for 2026.

Sector Watch

Bond Market

Treasury yields held steady around 4.11% on a quiet day. Dollar index flat despite the metals chaos. One bright spot: pending home sales posted their biggest jump in nearly three years as buyers respond to lower mortgage rates.

Policy Watch

Geopolitics

Trump threatened military action on Iran's missile program and confirmed strikes on targeted Venezuelan “drug facilities”. Oil prices rose on the tension. U.S. talks with Ukraine and Russia produced no ceasefire agreement over the weekend.

Federal Reserve

December meeting minutes drop Tuesday at 2pm ET. Markets want to see how divided policymakers are on the rate path for 2026.

Corporate Outlook

• Large employers are laying out 2026 plans. Hiring isn't one of them.

• Private equity sitting on 12,900 unsold companies with nearly 7-year average hold periods

• Family offices now control $5.5 trillion, up 67% from five years ago

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What to Watch

Fed Minutes

Tuesday afternoon brings the transcript from December's meeting. Look for how divided the committee really is on rate cuts.

Buffett Transition

Warren Buffett officially hands the CEO title to Greg Abel at year end. Watch for any final communications or moves this week.

Holiday Schedule

Bond markets close early Wednesday. Everything shuts Thursday for New Year's Day. Volume dries up fast from here.

Metals Volatility

CME raised margins but the underlying demand case hasn't changed. Central banks are still buying. Currency fears aren't going away. Expect choppy action through year-end.

Thanks for reading 🙂

- John

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