December 24th Market Overview

Happy Wednesday

Five straight days of gains into the holiday with the S&P 500 and Dow both hitting fresh records. Volume was at a third of normal as most traders checked out early. Gold crossed and stayed above $4,500 while silver hit 41% on the month.

Merry Christmas

Let’s dig in...

Today's Big Picture

Markets Grind Higher on Skeleton Crew Volume 
The S&P 500 and Dow closed at fresh records with volume at a third of normal. Year-end rebalancing and algos, not conviction.

Gold Breaks $4,500 as the Debasement Trade Accelerates
Gold topped $4,500 while silver hit records near $72. Best year since 1979 on central bank buying and relentless ETF inflows. This is structural, not a tradeas pointed out this past qtr’s big theme.

Intel's 18A Process Gets Rejected by Nvidia 
Nvidia tested Intel's advanced 18A chip manufacturing process and walked away. A Commerce Department official said Intel isn't "too strategic to fail." That's the quote that matters.

Market Overview

Index Performance

Stock Spotlight

Nike $NKE ( ▲ 4.64% ) 
moved higher after SEC filings showed Apple CEO Tim Cook bought 50,000 shares at around $58.97 per share for roughly $2.95 million. He sits on Nike's board and stepped in right after their earnings miss last week.

Micron Technology $MU ( ▲ 3.77% ) 
hit fresh session highs. Citi analysts are flagging it as a stock that could show strong returns with low volatility next year.

UiPath $PATH ( ▲ 7.52% ) 
jumped after getting added to the S&P MidCap 400 index effective January 2. It replaces Synovus Financial which is being acquired by Pinnacle Financial Partners.

Big Name Updates

Intel $INTC ( ▼ 0.52% ) 
dropped after Nvidia $NVDA tested Intel's 18A chip process and walked away. A Commerce official said Intel isn't "too strategic to fail." Worth remembering that quote.

Snowflake $SNOW ( ▼ 1.41% ) 
is in advanced talks to acquire Observe for about $1 billion according to GuruFocus. This would be Snowflake's biggest acquisition and a push into AI-driven observability for application and infrastructure monitoring.

AST SpaceMobile $ASTS ( ▼ 8.61% ) 
successfully launched BlueBird 6 on India's LVM3 rocket. The company says it's the largest commercial communications array ever deployed in low Earth orbit. Reached orbit in roughly 16 minutes.

Other Notable Company News

$BP ( ▼ 0.78% ) sold a 65% stake in its Castrol lubricants business to investment firm Stonepeak at an $8 billion valuation. BP will receive about $6 billion in proceeds. This is BP's biggest divestiture so far in its plan to sell $20 billion of assets by 2027.

Robinhood $HOOD ( ▲ 0.17% ) 
Banking drew over $100 million in deposits from 10,000 customers since launch.

Richtech Robotics $RR ( ▲ 8.31% ) 
plans to debut its humanoid robot Dex at CES 2026.

Sector Watch

Bond Market

The 10-year note settled at 4.13% yields. Dollar index at its highest level since August. $22 billion 30-year bond auction hits tomorrow at 2pm before bond markets close for Christmas. Everything's shut Thursday.

Policy Watch

Jobless claims dropped to 214,000 last week from 224,000. Below the 225,000 forecast. Combined with Tuesday's 4.3% GDP print, traders have basically written off a January rate cut. Most still expect two cuts by end of 2026.

Ed Yardeni says the Fed cut this month because they're worried about weak payroll growth. His take: lower rates won't fix a skills mismatch in the labor market or AI letting companies do more with fewer people.

International

• China housing easing: Beijing cut minimum down payment to 25% from 30% and eased purchase restrictions.

• Rare earth restrictions persist: China ships finished magnets but blocks the raw materials US companies need to build domestic production. Trump and Xi's October deal didn't change this.

Today’s Sponsor

What to Watch

Santa Claus Rally Window Opens 
The Santa Claus rally period runs today through January 5. LPL Financial sees the S&P 500 hitting 7,000 before year-end based on current momentum.

Precious Metals Momentum 
Silver topped $72 in futures while copper broke above $12,000 per ton for the first time. The entire metals complex is on track for its best year since 1979.

Market Closed Thursday
Markets are closed Thursday for Christmas. Trading resumes Friday. Expect light volume through year-end.

Thanks for reading 🙂

- John

Today’s Sponsor

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