December 22nd Market Overview

Happy Monday

Solid start to the holiday shortened week across the board. Gold hit a new record while Trump escalated the Venezuela blockade and shut down five offshore wind projects in one order. I think people are still underestimating how fast policy can move markets right now. My largest concern is escalation w/ Venezuela. By the time oil supply actually gets hit, it's too late to hedge.

It’s all good until it isn’t so to speak. Keep an eye on breadth and volume in outflow. These two help show when the ship is actually going to sink for a bit.

Let’s dig in...

Today's Big Picture

Gold Breaks $4,400 as Currency Trust Erodes

Gold hit $4,400 for the first time. Silver broke records too. People are buying hard assets because they don't trust paper money anymore. When gold goes up 70% in a year, we aren’t watching a trade… we have been watching the dollar lose credibility. This has been a big them this year.

Ellison Puts $40 Billion of His Own Money Behind Paramount Deal

Larry Ellison personally guaranteed $40 billion to back Paramount $PSKY buying Warner Bros. Discovery $WBD. One of the richest guys on earth is using his own balance sheet to make this happen. Warner's board didn't trust the family fund setup, now they have no excuse.

Trump Shuts Down Offshore Wind Overnight

The admin killed all five East Coast wind projects. Pentagon said security risk. Companies like Dominion Energy $D got hit, their Virginia project was the biggest in the country. Policy risk moved faster than any analyst expected.

Market Overview

Index Performance

Stock Spotlight

Nvidia $NVDA ( ▲ 3.01% ) 
told Chinese customers it will start shipping H200 chips before Lunar New Year in mid-February. Trump said Nvidia can ship to approved customers if the U.S. gets a cut.

Oracle $ORCL ( ▼ 1.48% ) 
climbed after Wells Fargo said the stock is too cheap. The bank thinks people are underestimating Oracle's AI business and a possible TikTok deal. Their target is nearly 50% above Friday's close.

Apple $AAPL ( ▲ 0.51% ) 
is reportedly targeting smart glasses for late 2026. No screen - just cameras and mics built around Siri for calls, music and live translation.

Alphabet $GOOGL ( ▲ 1.48% ) 
is buying data center company Intersect for $4.75 billion. They need more power capacity to run all the AI compute.

Big Name Updates

Warner Bros. Discovery $WBD ( ▲ 1.39% ) 
rallied after Paramount $PSKY updated its $30-per-share offer with Larry Ellison's personal guarantee. Netflix $NFLX lined up $25 billion in bank money for its competing bid but the stock dipped.

Coinbase $COIN ( ▼ 2.22% ) 
bought prediction market startup The Clearing Company. They want to let people bet on real-world events, not just trade crypto.

Tesla $TSLA ( ▼ 0.65% ) 
won its Delaware legal fight over Elon Musk's 2018 pay package. One less distraction.

Honeywell $HON ( ▼ 0.24% ) 
cut its full-year numbers after spinning off its Advanced Materials business. They now expect sales of $37.5 billion to $37.7 billion.

Other Notable Company News

Cintas $CTAS ( ▼ 0.69% ) 
made another run at UniFirst $UNF with a $275-per-share offer after years of getting turned down. This time they threw in a $350 million breakup fee if regulators kill the deal.

Rocket Lab $RKLB ( ▼ 0.48% ) 
kept climbing after landing its biggest contract ever to build satellites for the Space Development Agency.

Clearwater Analytics $CWAN ( ▲ 0.17% ) 
is being bought by private equity firms led by Permira and Warburg Pincus for $8.4 billion.

Instacart $CART ( ▲ 0.02% ) 
killed its price testing after people got mad about being charged different prices for the same stuff in the same store.

Sector Watch

Bond Market

U.S. 10-year yields stayed flat around 4.17%. Nothing happening here.

The real story is Japan. Their 10-year bond yield hit the highest level since 1999 after the central bank raised rates to 0.75%. Japanese officials basically said they'll do whatever it takes to prop up the yen. That currency is getting crushed.

Policy Watch

Venezuela Blockade
The Coast Guard grabbed a second oil tanker near Venezuela on Saturday. They're chasing a third. Trump ordered a full blockade last week and he's not messing around. Oil jumped over $1 per barrel.

Wind Projects Dead
Interior Secretary Doug Burgum froze federal leases for five wind farms from Massachusetts to Virginia. Pentagon said security risk. The offshore wind industry just got kneecapped.

China Hits Back on EU
China is slapping tariffs between 21.9% and 42.7% on EU dairy starting December 23. This is payback for EU tariffs on Chinese electric cars.

Japan Ready to Defend Yen
Japanese officials said they'll step in whenever they want to support the yen. The currency bounced a bit Monday but it's still getting hammered as bond yields climb.

China Squeezes Rare Earth Supply
China's rare-earth magnet exports to the U.S. dropped 11% in November. They're turning the screws on critical materials.

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What to Watch

Holiday Schedule
Markets close early Wednesday at 1 p.m. ET and stay closed Thursday. Don't get caught in a thin volume market mid-week. We are going to see some volatility chop.

Santa Claus Rally
The seven-day window starts Wednesday. Historically the S&P 500 gains about 1.3% during this stretch.

Platinum Breakout
Platinum cleared $2,000 for the first time since 2008. Up 127% this year - best run since 1969.

Thanks for reading 🙂

- John

Today’s Sponsor

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