August 8th Market Overview

Happy Friday (happy weekend)

Wild week wrapping up here. Markets just shrugged off Trump's fresh tariffs like nothing and the Nasdaq hit another record. Apple kinda played this perfectly with that $600 billion investment announcement, basically buying their way out of those 100% chip tariffs.

I gotta say, I'm kinda impressed how unfazed everyone seems right now. Either we're all getting numb to this tariff stuff or people just don't think it's gonna stick. Honestly not sure which one it is and personally am just following the volume and price action like always.

Let's dig in...

Summary

Fannie and Freddie Going Public Fannie Mae 
$FNMA ( ▲ 2.66% ) and Freddie Mac $FMCC delivered massive gains after WSJ reported Trump administration preparations for IPOs later this year that could raise $30 billion.

Apple's Tariff Exemption Playbook Apple 
$AAPL's $600 billion U.S. investment positioned the company perfectly for exemptions from Trump's 100% semiconductor tariffs for companies "building in the United States."

Trade Desk Shows Tariff Ripple Effects The Trade Desk 
$TTD ( ▲ 2.68% ) crashed despite strong earnings after its CEO warned major brands face pressure from tariffs and inflation, triggering Wall Street downgrades.

Markets Shrug Off Fresh Tariffs 
Despite reciprocal tariffs taking effect Thursday night on dozens of countries, major indices climbed higher.

The VIX dropped over -7.5%.

Gold Makes History 
Tariffs on Swiss gold bars sent futures to an inflation-adjusted record near $3,500 before the White House promised clarification. The metal broke a 45-year milestone.

Market Overview

U.S. Stock Indexes, This Week

Stock Spotlight

Robinhood $HOOD ( ▲ 3.13% ) approached the $100 billion market cap threshold for the first time, riding retail trading momentum and crypto enthusiasm that has powered the stock over 200% this year.

The Trade Desk $TTD ( ▲ 2.68% ) crashed despite strong quarterly results. CEO Jeff Green’s warning that “some of the world’s largest brands are absolutely facing pressure” from tariffs triggered downgrades from Bank of America and MoffettNathanson.

Intel $INTC ( ▲ 2.93% ) found stability after Trump called for CEO Lip-Bu Tan’s resignation over China business ties. The chipmaker stood behind its leadership, though prediction markets now give Tan a 37% chance of leaving this year.

Big Name Updates

Tesla $TSLA ( ▼ 1.5% ) shut down its custom Dojo supercomputer project and saw key executive Pete Bannon depart. Wells Fargo views this as positive for Nvidia $NVDA and Advanced Micro Devices $AMD, as Tesla will likely increase GPU purchases.

Monster Beverage $MNST ( ▲ 0.69% ) received a bullish upgrade from Piper Sandler after earnings topped expectations. The firm noted aluminum tariffs should prove manageable since the metal represents only 10% of costs.

Under Armour $UAA ( ▲ 5.08% ) stumbled on disappointing results and weak guidance. The sportswear company specifically cited “ongoing uncertainty around trade policies” in its outlook.

Other Notable Company News

Peloton $PTON ( ▲ 0.35% ) caught a major upgrade from Goldman Sachs, which flipped to buy after strong quarterly results.

Pinterest $PINS ( ▼ 1.57% ) disappointed with earnings that missed estimates despite revenue beating expectations.

AMC Networks $AMCX ( ▲ 0.28% ) delivered strong results with streaming revenue up 12% year-over-year.

Sector Watch

Bond Market

Treasury yields climbed with the 10-year hitting 4.29% as investors moved into riskier assets. The yield curve remains inverted but continues steepening from earlier this year.

• Fed rate cut expectations persist though timing remains uncertain

• Rising yields reflect confidence in growth and reduced recession fears

$TNX ( 0.0% ) 

Policy Watch

Trump's reciprocal tariffs took effect Thursday night on dozens of countries, with rates reaching 41% for Syria and 40% for Laos and Myanmar. The administration also confirmed tariffs on Swiss gold bars, sending futures to record highs before promising clarification.

Trump nominated Stephen Miran to fill the Fed board vacancy left by Adriana Kugler's early departure. The appointment runs through January and suggests policy continuity.

• National Retail Federation reports July container imports hit 2.3 million units as retailers rushed goods ahead of tariff deadlines

• Import volumes expected to plummet as businesses adjust to higher trade costs

• White House to clarify gold tariff policy after confusion over Swiss imports sent futures from record highs to sharp retreats within hours

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What to Watch

CPI Data Tuesday 
Monthly inflation report will drive Fed rate cut expectations and bond positioning. Any surprise could shift the entire yield curve and growth stock valuations.

China Tariff Deadline Saturday 
Trump's trade truce extension decision this weekend determines whether fresh tariffs hit China. Outcome could swing markets Monday and reshape supply chain plays.

Deere Earnings Show Ag Sector Pain Deere 
$DE reports amid tariff pressures on farm equipment exports and weak commodity prices. Results could signal broader industrial headwinds.

Tech Infrastructure Spending Check Cisco 
$CSCO and Applied Materials $AMAT earnings reveal enterprise IT spending trends and semiconductor equipment demand in the tariff environment.

Gold Tariff Clarification 
White House executive order on precious metals tariffs could create major volatility in the gold miners after this week's record-breaking chaos.

Thanks for reading 🙂

- John

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