August 6th Market Overview

Happy Wednesday

Markets found some rhythm today, mostly thanks to Apple dropping another $100 billion manufacturing commitment that had Tim Cook shaking hands with Trump at the White House.

Earnings season keeps reminding us that beating estimates isn't always enough anymore and ya better have the fundamentals to back it up. Trump's trade team stayed busy hitting India with another 25% tariff over their Russian oil habit.

Let's dig in...

Market Summary

Apple’s Political Playbook
Apple $AAPL announced another $100 billion U.S. manufacturing commitment, bringing its total to $600 billion over four years. The move shows how companies can thrive by aligning with administration priorities.

Earnings Quality Matters More
While 81% of S&P 500 companies beat expectations, the market got selective. Winners like McDonald’s $MCD delivered real substance. Losers like Snap $SNAP disappointed despite decent metrics.

India Tariffs Double
The administration slapped an additional 25% tariff on Indian goods over Russian oil purchases, bringing the total to 50%. Thursday’s midnight deadline for multiple countries promises more volatility.

Bond Buyers Turn Picky
A $42 billion 10-year note auction attracted weak demand, pushing yields to 4.24%. Thursday’s unprecedented $100 billion 4-week bill sale will show if this funding stress continues.

Market Overview

U.S. Stock Indexes, This Week so Far

Stock Spotlight

Apple $AAPL ( ▼ 0.3% ) posted its best day since May on the $100 billion manufacturing announcement. CEO Tim Cook joined Trump at the White House for the formal reveal.

Advanced Micro Devices $AMD ( ▼ 0.77% ) dropped despite $7.69 billion in revenue beating estimates. The chipmaker missed on earnings and CEO Lisa Su said export restrictions killed China sales.

McDonald’s $MCD ( ▼ 0.07% ) beat expectations with $3.19 per share earnings on $6.84 billion revenue. Same-store sales grew at the fastest pace in nearly two years.

Shopify $SHOP ( ▲ 1.16% ) climbed after second-quarter revenue of $2.68 billion beat the $2.55 billion estimate. The company guided for mid-to-high twenties growth next quarter and delivered its eighth straight quarter of double-digit free cash flow margins.

Snap $SNAP ( ▲ 2.66% ) fell after revenue of $1.34 billion missed the $1.35 billion target. Close doesn’t count when competition for ad dollars keeps getting tougher.

Big Name Updates

Disney $DIS ( ▲ 1.01% ) fell despite raising full-year EPS guidance to $5.85. The problem: this quarter’s beat was doing all the heavy lifting, leaving Q4 looking weak at an implied $1.03 versus $1.09 expected. Traditional TV sales dropped 15%.

Uber Technologies $UBER ( ▲ 1.49% ) launched a $20 billion buyback program with earnings results. The ride-sharing giant matched EPS estimates, beat on revenue, and posted record trailing twelve-month free cash flow of $8.5 billion.

Microsoft $MSFT ( ▼ 0.59% ) gets a boost from partner OpenAI’s reported $500 billion valuation talks.

Other Notable Company News

Bloomin’ Brands $BLMN ( ▲ 2.86% ) dropped after weak guidance overshadowed decent quarterly results. The Outback Steakhouse owner cited challenging conditions ahead.

Opendoor Technologies $OPEN ( ▲ 19.24% ) fell on disappointing outlook projecting at least 36% revenue decline. The real estate platform blamed macro headwinds.

Rivian Automotive $RIVN ( ▲ 1.39% ) warned that expiring EV tax credits will hurt results. The company raised its expected EBITDA loss to $2.0-2.25 billion from $1.7-1.9 billion previously.

Sector Watch

Bond Market

Treasury markets faced headwinds as the $42 billion 10-year note auction attracted soft demand from investors.

• Increased Treasury issuance and mounting government funding needs
• Persistent inflation pressures despite economic cooling signals
• Growing supply of government debt relative to investor appetite

The weak auction suggests bond buyers want higher compensation for duration risk in the current macro environment.

Policy Watch

Trade Policy
The White House imposed an additional 25% tariff on Indian imports due to Russian oil purchases, effective in 21 days. Switzerland’s president held emergency talks with Secretary of State Marco Rubio to avoid scheduled 39% tariffs.

Monetary Policy
Minneapolis Fed President Neel Kashkari maintains his call for two rate cuts this year despite tariff uncertainties. He noted the economy shows cooling signs but cautioned the central bank may need to pause or reverse course if tariffs spike inflation.

Banking Regulation
A potential executive order targeting “debanking” of businesses for political reasons could expand banks’ addressable markets, according to Wells Fargo analysts.

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What to Watch

Midnight Tariff Scramble 
Thursday's deadline hits multiple countries hard. Importers are rushing goods onto ships and planes for last-minute exemptions. Watch for volatility if any deals get struck or deadlines extended.

Record Treasury Test
The government auctions $100 billion in 4-week bills Thursday—the largest single sale ever. Poor demand could signal broader funding stress and push rates higher across the curve.

Earnings Bar Keeps Rising 
Beat rates look strong at 81%, but the market only rewards substance now. Companies need real growth stories, not just statistical wins, to move their stocks meaningfully.

Trade Negotiation Updates 
Switzerland's president met with Secretary Rubio trying to avoid 39% tariffs, while Trump's envoy visited Putin in Moscow. Any breakthroughs or escalations in these talks could shift market sentiment quickly.

Thanks for reading 🙂

- John