August 21st Pre-Market Brief

Good Morning

Treasury announced it was buying back bonds this week to bring yields down. Yields went up anyway.

Gold and bitcoin both had a big week while the dollar hit its weakest level since May. Investors are worried about the debt and they're parking money outside of it.

Let's dig in...

Today's Big Picture

1. Treasury Hasn't Bought A Single Bond Yet

The buyback that moved markets all week doesn't begin until September 9 and runs through November 4. Every move since Wednesday came off a press release, not an actual operation. Yields are higher again this morning with the 30-year near 5.26 and the 10-year near 4.72. JPMorgan's James Sullivan called the plan paying your mortgage with your credit card, since Treasury funds the purchases by issuing short-term bills and the total debt never shrinks.

2. Everything Is Rallying Except The Dollar

Stocks opened higher, gold reached a three-month high, silver added over two percent and bitcoin gained more than seven. The dollar is the one thing going the other way, sitting at its weakest since May. Four assets with nothing in common are moving together, and the shared thread is the currency they're priced in. Capital Economics tied it straight to the buyback reviving worries about the dollar losing value.

3. Japan Just Showed What The Oil Move Does To Inflation

Japan's headline inflation hit 1.9 percent in July, the highest this year, with energy prices rising for the first time since November 2025. Wholesale inflation there ran 7.2 percent. Hormuz is still moving 10 to 20 ships a day against roughly 130 before the war, and Brent sits near $94 after five straight days higher. The harder squeeze is in diesel, where refining margins are at record highs, and that feeds freight and farming long before it reaches a pump headline.

Market Overview

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Stock Spotlight (pre-market)

Ross Stores $ROST ( ▼ 2.43% )  
Earned $2.06 a share on revenue of $6.26 billion, against $1.95 and $6.16 billion expected, and raised full-year guidance on demand from new and existing customers. Shares were up around eight percent premarket and are holding a gain closer to five at the open.

BJ's Wholesale $BJ ( ▼ 0.53% )  
Earned $1.36 a share against $1.17 expected on revenue of $6.09 billion, and lifted full-year guidance to $4.60 to $4.80 from $4.40 to $4.60. Shares are only modestly higher on a beat that size.

Strategy $MSTR ( ▲ 7.81% )  
Up close to ten percent, the largest move in the crypto complex, as bitcoin trades near $80,000. The company holds bitcoin on its balance sheet, so the stock travels further than the coin in both directions.

Coinbase $COIN ( ▲ 7.58% )  
Up around four percent as bitcoin trades near $77,000, its highest since May. Coinbase executives were in the White House meeting this week where Trump pressed Congress on the Clarity Act, which would settle which federal agency regulates the exchange side of the business.

Broadcom $AVGO ( ▲ 0.43% )  
Up over one percent after Bloomberg reported the company is seeking more than $60 billion in debt tied to a deal supporting Anthropic. Even with the gain, the stock is set to finish the week down around seven percent.

Nvidia $NVDA ( ▼ 0.33% )  
Flat premarket after a report it will ship an AI chip for China by year end. Chips are the weakest corner of the tape this week, with Intel, AMD and Seagate each set to close around ten percent lower.

What to Watch

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The Sanctions Are Priced, The List Isn't (Monday)

The announcement is priced. The names on it are not. If Chinese buyers of Iranian crude land on that list, this stops being an oil story and becomes a trade story. That risk sits over a weekend, which is why oil desks would rather square up today than carry it.

Warsh At Jackson Hole (Next Week)

HSBC says part of the climb in long yields is markets doubting the new Fed's predictability under Warsh. That makes this speech a bond event first and a stock event second. A clear framework from him could do more for the long end than the buybacks did.

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