August 15th Market Overview

Happy Friday

Split decision kind of day as Buffett's big bet on healthcare drove the Dow to a fresh record while tech slumped a bit on tariff talk. The Oracle of Omaha buys something and everyone pays attention, especially when it's been as beaten up as UnitedHealth.

Worth watching: Trump and Putin are meeting in Alaska this afternoon about ending the Ukraine war. Could be noise, could move markets. Either way, a significant macro catalyst heading into the weekend.

Let's dig in...

Summary

Buffett's Healthcare Bet Lifts Dow to Record Berkshire Hathaway 
$BRK.B ( ▲ 0.26% ) disclosed a $1.6 billion stake in $UNH ( ▲ 2.08% ) , driving the Dow to its first intraday record of 2025. Buffet's return to healthcare after selling his previous UNH position in 2010 signals he sees a bottom in the beaten-down insurer.

Chip Sector Hit by China Weakness and Tariff Threats Applied Materials 
$AMAT warned of sluggish China demand from its largest market (35% of sales), while Trump announced semiconductor tariffs could come next week, starting low before jumping to "very high" levels.

Consumer Data Sends Mixed Signals 
July retail sales hit expectations at 0.5%, but August consumer sentiment unexpectedly fell for the first time in four months as inflation expectations jumped across all time horizons.

Government Considers Intel Stake 
The Trump administration is considering taking a stake in Intel Corporation $INTC ( ▼ 3.66% ) to fund the chipmaker's Ohio factory expansion through CHIPS Act resources.

Market Overview

U.S. Stock Indexes, Past Three Sessions

Stock Spotlight

UnitedHealth Group $UNH ( ▲ 2.08% ) 
moved on Berkshire's $1.6 billion stake disclosure. The healthcare giant faces soaring medical costs and federal investigations, making Buffett's confidence vote particularly meaningful for institutional investors.

Intel Corporation $INTC ( ▼ 3.66% ) 
extended its rally on reports the Trump administration is considering a government investment to fund the chipmaker's Ohio factory expansion. The potential deal marks another direct intervention in the tech sector.

Applied Materials $AMAT ( ▲ 1.38% ) 
posted the worst performance after disappointing fourth-quarter guidance. Management cited weak China demand and warned of near-term uncertainty from the "dynamic policy environment."

Opendoor Technologies $OPEN ( ▲ 18.61% ) 
gained after announcing CEO Carrie Wheeler's immediate departure. The leadership change follows pressure from activist investor Eric Jackson after the stock's volatile month.

Big Name Updates

Berkshire Hathaway $BRK.B ( ▲ 0.26% ) 
reshaped its portfolio beyond the UnitedHealth buy, trimming Apple $AAPL ( ▼ 0.14% ) and Bank of America $BAC ( ▲ 2.09% ) positions. Piper Sandler noted BAC's buybacks easily absorb Berkshire's selling.

Cava Group $CAVA ( ▼ 0.24% ) 
headed for its worst week ever after the Mediterranean chain cut its same-store sales target for the first time. The reality check follows its earlier meteoric rise.

Chipotle Mexican Grill $CMG ( ▼ 0.87% ) 
broke its five-week slide after Piper Sandler's upgrade to overweight. The firm believes bad news around sales growth concerns is now priced in.

Other Notable Company News

iShares U.S. Healthcare Providers ETF $IHF ( ▲ 0.83% ) 
headed for its best day in over a year, driven entirely by the UnitedHealth rally.

U.S. Global Jets ETF $JETS ( ▼ 0.02% ) 
tracked for its best week since November 2023 on capacity reduction speculation following Spirit Airlines' shutdown warning.

Pandora warned of rising tariff impacts as the Danish jewelry maker reported weak sales across key markets.

Circle Internet Group $CRCL ( ▼ 4.86% )
priced its 10 million share offering at $130, with the stablecoin issuer selling 2 million shares while stockholders sell 8 million.

Sector Watch

Bond Markets

The 10-year Treasury yield held steady (4.32%) as investors balanced solid retail sales against rising inflation expectations.

Bond positioning is cautious ahead of Jackson Hole, where Powell's Friday speech will determine whether September rate cut bets above 90% hold or crack under recent inflation pressure.

Policy Watch

Renewable Energy Credits Tighten 
Treasury's new guidance requires projects show "physical work of a significant nature" rather than just equipment orders to qualify for tax credits. This eliminates developers' main method for locking in Inflation Reduction Act benefits before expiration, explaining today's solar sector moves.

Trump-Putin Summit in Alaska 
The meeting focuses on ending the Ukraine war.

Key market scenarios: successful ceasefire talks could pressure defense stocks and boost European markets, while failure might increase safe-haven demand and energy price volatility.

Fed Enters Jackson Hole Blackout 
Powell speaks Friday at the Wyoming symposium. With September rate cut odds above 90% despite this week's mixed inflation data, markets will parse every word for guidance on pace and magnitude of easing.

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What to Watch

Powell's Jackson Hole Speech Next Fridays the big one. With September cut odds above 90% despite this week's hot inflation data, any dovish wavering could crater those bets. Watch for language around pace of easing.

Chip Tariff Announcement Trump said next week for semiconductor levies. The devil's in the details - exemption criteria and timeline could make or break individual names. TSMC's domestic manufacturing exemption status is key.

Retail Earnings Reality Check Walmart $WMT reports Thursday. After solid July retail sales but weak consumer sentiment, earnings will show if spending strength is real or just surface-level resilience.

Fed Minutes July meeting details drop Wednesday. Less market-moving than Powell's speech but could reveal how divided officials are on September cuts after recent inflation upticks.

Thanks for reading 🙂

- John