August 10th Market Overview

Happy Monday

Market barely moved from AM today, but oil settled above $82 and the WSJ reported Nvidia has half a trillion dollars of AI financing lined up.

JPMorgan's David Kelly put out a number Im paying attention too: all US corporate equity is now worth more than four times the economy, against under two and a half times before the pandemic. I think that number is the backdrop for every headline this week and may dig into that next Sunday.

Let’s dig in...

Today's Big Picture

1. Nvidia Lined Up $500 Billion And The Stock Fell

Apollo, Blackstone, BlackRock, Brookfield, Goldman Sachs and KKR agreed to help Nvidia raise $500 billion for the AI buildout, per people familiar with the talks. Shares extended their losses on the report and closed down. That same morning, Bank of America called worries about circular AI financing overblown and kept Nvidia as its top sector pick into the August 26 report. Buyers disagreed today, and the space between those two views is the trade for the rest of the year.

2. Oil Settled Above $82 With The Reserve At A 1983 Low

West Texas Intermediate settled at $82.13 and Brent at $87.72. Tehran's price for reopening the strait is a US troop withdrawal, an end to all sanctions and war reparations, which is not a list you write when you are close to a deal. US strategic reserves are now at their lowest level since January 1983. The buffer that absorbed the last two oil scares is thinner this time.

3. Meta Wants To Give The Model Away And Sell The Compute

Zuckerberg published a long essay Monday arguing superintelligence should be spread widely rather than held by a few labs. Meta released Muse Glimmer alongside it, an open-weight model small enough to run on a single graphics card. The plan is free AI for billions of people, then an auction for anyone who wants more compute. That is a pricing model, and it points straight at the subscription revenue every rival runs on.

Market Overview

Index Performance

Stock spotlight

MarineMax $HZO ( ▲ 46.08% )  
is going private, bought by Blackstone's Safe Harbor Marinas for $53 a share, or $1.5 billion. Boat retail has been rough since rates went up. A buyer with a long horizon just took the whole thing off the market.

Archer Aviation $ACHR ( ▲ 12.52% )  
is taking Wisk Aero, SkyGrid and Insitu off Boeing's hands. Boeing gets close to a fifth of Archer plus warrants and exits flying taxis entirely.

Coherent $COHR ( ▼ 14.16% )  
closed sharply lower alongside Lumentum and Corning as AI infrastructure names sold off. These are the parts suppliers for the buildout, and they fell on the day it got a $500 billion financing plan.

Tenax Therapeutics $TENX ( ▼ 89.77% )  
and Sionna Therapeutics $SION each lost most of their value on failed late stage trials. Tenax's heart failure pill did not beat placebo, and Sionna dropped its cystic fibrosis add-on entirely.

Big name updates

Berkshire Hathaway $BRK.B ( ▲ 1.46% )  
closed higher and snapped its post-earnings losing streak, the best showing after a report since February 2025. The full stock portfolio lands Friday.

Broadcom $AVGO ( ▼ 0.87% )  
got a bullish note from Mizuho, which sees the custom AI chip business spreading past Google to Meta, OpenAI, Anthropic and Apple. The real step up is 2028, when new packaging could lift how many of those chips actually get built.

eBay $EBAY ( ▼ 3.81% )  
fell on a Bloomberg report that GameStop is weighing dropping its $56 billion bid. Ryan Cohen may propose a partnership using GameStop's stores instead.

Strategy $MSTR ( ▼ 1.92% )  
sold 1,690 bitcoin last week for about $109 million to fund preferred stock buybacks. Two straight weeks of selling from the largest corporate holder.

Super Micro Computer $SMCI closed higher into Tuesday afternoon's results. It carries roughly $39 billion of AI server orders and raised $7 billion to buy the parts.

Other notable company news

Doximity $DOCS ( ▼ 6.46% )  
fell after Wells Fargo cut it to underweight with an $18 target, three days after its best session in over a year.

Tractor Supply $TSCO ( ▲ 0.17% )  
is cutting prices, closing pet specialty stores and slowing expansion as shoppers delay purchases.

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Sector Watch

Bond market

The 10-year finished near 4.70 after starting the day lower. Traders now put a September hike just past a coin flip, down from roughly two in three a week ago. The dollar firmed and gold closed higher again, near $4,446.

Wednesday brings a 10-year auction the same morning as the inflation print. The 30-year follows Thursday.

Policy watch

Fed

• Officials are still split, and Friday's jobs report gave both camps something to hold.

• Jeremy Siegel said productivity growth has been weak for three straight quarters and sits below its fifteen year average. His line: workers are losing to inflation.

• That is the part the inflation headline never shows. Wages keeping up is not the same as wages getting ahead.

Fiscal and trade

Washington committed more than $2 billion to battery and critical minerals producers, with the $400 million loan to Sunrise Energy Metals as the visible piece. The goal is fewer chokepoints running through China. Expect more one-off loans like this rather than a broad program.

International

• The Strait of Hormuz has been effectively shut for close to six months.

• Central Command says it has redirected 55 commercial vessels, disabled two and boarded two.

• Houthi forces claim they hit Saudi Aramco's Jazan refinery Sunday, and Saudi authorities reported a fire there.

• The Red Sea was supposed to be the workaround. Right now it is not much of one.

What to Watch

The AI company quietly automating every Walmart distribution center. 
23 billion in orders on the book.

It's just one of seven names in this free MarketBeat report.

Small Business And Housing (Tuesday)

The small business survey and existing home sales both land Tuesday morning. Hiring plans in that survey matter more than usual after a payrolls report that showed the economy shedding jobs.

Producer Prices (Thursday)

Producer prices come a day after consumer prices and usually get ignored. With crude settling where it did today, this is the read on whether higher input costs are reaching companies before they reach shelves.

- John

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