April 9th Pre-Market

Good Morning

Well that didn't last long. Yesterday we were popping champagne over a ceasefire and today both sides are saying the other one broke it. Classic.

The ceasefire framework still exists and talks are moving to Islamabad Saturday. That important. The market gave us green yesterday and this morning it wants some of it back.

Let's dig in...

Today's Big Picture

The Ceasefire Is Already Being Tested 

Israel launched its biggest strike on Lebanon since the war started, killing over 200 people. Iran called it a violation and shut tanker traffic again. Only three ships left the Persian Gulf yesterday versus 135 on a normal day, with over 800 stuck waiting. Talks still move to Islamabad Saturday but energy names, airlines, and anything oil-sensitive are repricing this morning.

Goldman Says $100-Plus Oil If Hormuz Stays Closed Another Month 

Crude is back near $99 after yesterday's historic drop. Goldman Sachs models Brent above $100 through 2026 if the Strait doesn't reopen within a month. Iran announced "designated shipping routes" coordinated through the Revolutionary Guard, which tells you who's still controlling that waterway. Energy longs, refiners, and anyone hedging fuel costs should treat yesterday's dip as noise until ships are actually moving.

Private Credit Facing $20 Billion In Redemption Requests 

Wealthy investors tried to pull over $20 billion from private credit funds in Q1, hitting Apollo, Blackstone, KKR, Ares, and Blue Owl. Only about half have been honored. The concern is AI disrupting PE-backed software companies and aging buyouts with no exits. If redemptions accelerate, forced selling hits credit markets and that spills into equities fast.

Market Overview

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Stock Spotlight (pre-market)

CoreWeave $CRWV ( ▲ 4.29% )  

Expanded its Meta $META ( ▲ 6.5% )  deal to $21 billion through 2032, on top of the $14 billion agreement from September. This includes early Nvidia Vera Rubin deployments. Two massive contracts in six months makes this the clearest infrastructure play in AI right now. .

Datadog $DDOG ( ▼ 0.03% )  

Upgraded to buy at Guggenheim, which called it the primary beneficiary of AI driven data volume growth. The stock has been building a base for months while the AI trade rotated through hardware names. This could be the catalyst that gets software investors back in.

Micron $MU ( ▲ 7.72% )  

Fading after yesterday's ceasefire pop. That rally was about helium supplies unlocking for chip production and that thesis is falling apart this morning. If the ceasefire collapses, memory names give back the entire week.

Walt Disney $DIS ( ▲ 3.55% )  

Planning sizable layoffs under new CEO Josh D'Amaro per the Wall Street Journal. First major move from new leadership usually signals more restructuring ahead. This is a margin story now, not a growth story.

Constellation Brands $STZ ( ▼ 2.32% )  

Withdrew its 2028 guidance and reported soft demand. The Q4 beat doesn't matter when you're pulling long term targets. Consumer weakness in alcohol is a trend, not a quarter. Defensive names aren't supposed to do this.

Texas Instruments $TXN

Upgraded to buy at Stifel as its heavy capex cycle winds down and data center revenue ramps. Free cash flow is about to inflect higher. This is a second half story that patient money is positioning for now.

What to Watch

March CPI Tomorrow 
This is the print that actually matters. First reading that could show the oil shock bleeding into real consumer prices. I think positioning starts this afternoon. If you see selling into the close, that's probably why.

Islamabad Talks Saturday 
Vance leads the U.S. side. Iran arrives Thursday. The gap between these two is enormous. Iran wants sanctions relief, troop withdrawal, and control of Hormuz. The U.S. wants no enrichment and an open strait. Every headline between now and then moves the tape.

UK Pushes For Lebanon In The Ceasefire 
Foreign Minister Yvette Cooper speaks tonight calling for toll-free Hormuz access and Lebanon included in the truce. Lebanon is the exact issue blowing up the deal right now. If Western allies push hard enough to get Israel to ease up, the ceasefire might still have legs.

Have a good day 🙂

- John

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