April 9th Market Overview

Happy Thursday

Markets traded higher as the ceasefire try’s to hold together. The real story is the disconnect between stock prices and what's actually happening at the Strait of Hormuz.

Four ships crossed yesterday. Before the war, over a hundred passed daily. I'm remaining cautious into this relief rally but we are up around 10% off last week's lows in the big indices, so this rally obviously has legs.

Let’s dig in...

Today's Big Picture

Israel Agrees to Lebanon Talks

Netanyahu agreed to direct negotiations with Lebanon after the White House called him Wednesday night. This matters because Iran has insisted any peace deal must include Lebanon, and Israel hit over 100 targets there on Wednesday alone. The ceasefire lives another day. Saturday's talks in Pakistan are the real test.

Strait of Hormuz Still Barely Open 

Four vessels crossed the strait on Wednesday. Iran is capping daily traffic at 15 ships and charging crypto tolls up to $2 million per vessel. Before the war, over 100 ships passed through with no fees. Goldman says Brent averages $100+ through 2026 if this doesn't improve within a month. Abu Dhabi's state oil chief posted on LinkedIn that the strait is "not open" and warned the true supply gap is about to hit Asia.

Private Credit Redemptions Hit $20 Billion 

Wealthy investors tried to pull $20 billion from private credit funds in Q1 across Apollo, Ares, Blackstone, Blue Owl, and KKR. The funds only honored about half. Carlyle's flagship fund saw redemption requests hit three times its 5% gate limit. The worry is AI disruption to PE-backed software companies and aging leveraged buyouts that can't find exits.

Market Overview

Index Performance

Stock Spotlight

CoreWeave $CRWV ( ▲ 3.68% )  
signed a $21 billion AI cloud deal with Meta, on top of an existing $14.2 billion commitment. Short sellers have taken $955 million in losses this year as the stock kept climbing.

Palantir $PLTR ( ▼ 8.52% )  
dropped after Michael Burry posted then deleted that Anthropic is eating their lunch. Anthropic's new model exposed thousands of flaws in existing software platforms, which spooked the whole software sector.

Amazon $AMZN ( ▲ 5.09% )  
will offer same-day delivery on Eli Lilly's newly approved GLP-1 pill Foundayo in nearly 3,000 U.S. cities. Pricing starts at $1/day with insurance or $5 cash.

Big Name Updates

Walt Disney $DIS ( ▲ 0.93% )  
plans to cut up to 1,000 jobs in the coming weeks, mostly in marketing. First major move under new CEO Josh D'Amaro.

Constellation Brands $STZ ( ▲ 8.55% )  
beat on Q4 earnings and said Hispanic consumers are starting to buy Corona again. Forward guidance came in light and the company pulled its 2028 outlook.

Tesla $TSLA ( ▲ 0.79% )  
is working on a smaller, cheaper compact SUV to be built in China first. At 14 feet long, it's noticeably shorter than the Model Y. The question is whether this signals a pivot back toward mass-market EVs.

Other Notable Company News

Alibaba $BABA ( ▲ 1.9% )  
quietly launched an AI video model called HappyHorse-1.0 that now ranks No. 1 on Artificial Analysis ahead of ByteDance.

Samsung plans a $4 billion chip packaging plant in northern Vietnam.

Texas Instruments $TXN ( ▲ 2.85% )  
upgraded to Buy at Stoical with a $250 target on expectations of a free cash flow inflection.

Datadog $DDOG ( ▼ 6.46% )  
upgraded to Buy at Guggenheim with a $175 target. They see AI-native customers driving meaningful revenue growth.

Redwire $RDW ( ▼ 4.21% )  
selected for the U.S. Air Force Andromeda program, an IDIQ contract with a $1.843 billion ceiling through 2036.

Morgan Stanley $MS ( ▲ 1.27% )  
launched a bitcoin ETF at the lowest fee in the category. Did $34 million in volume on day one.

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Sector Watch

Bond Market

Ten-year yield held steady at 4.29%. The dollar slipped after Q4 GDP was revised down to 0.5% annualized from 0.7%. Tomorrow's March CPI is the big event. Economists expect a 0.9% monthly increase, which would be the largest since May 2024.

Policy Watch

Fed 
PCE inflation for February held at 2.8% annually, in line with expectations. Core ticked down to 3% from 3.1%. Prices were stubbornly high before the war even started. The March meeting minutes showed officials worried inflation could take longer to come down because of the conflict. Nobody expects a rate cut anytime soon.

Ceasefire & Diplomacy
VP Vance leads a delegation to Islamabad Saturday for direct talks with Iran. Key demands from Tehran:

• Unfreezing of Iranian assets within two weeks

• Lebanon included in any peace deal

• Pakistan had to intervene last night to stop Iran from retaliating over perceived ceasefire violations

Vance said Wednesday that if the strait doesn't start reopening, the U.S. won't hold up its end.

International 
The IMF expects a global growth slowdown even if peace holds. Over 40 energy assets have been damaged since the war began per the IEA, meaning supply stays tight regardless of what happens at the strait. The White House also delayed a U.S. robotics strategy to avoid escalating with China ahead of a Trump-Xi summit.

What to Watch

March CPI Report
Comes out tomorrow morning. This is the first major inflation reading that captures gas price spikes from the war. A hot number kills any remaining hope for 2026 rate cuts.

Pakistan Negotiations 
Vance meets Iranian officials Saturday. If talks fail, oil goes back above $100 fast and the ceasefire trade unwinds. A productive meeting could trigger real de-escalation buying next week.

Retail Investor Participation 
Individual investors only bought $196 million on Wednesday's massive rally, their smallest daily purchase since November 2023. Smart money drove the move, not conviction. I want to see if everyday buyers show up after the April 15 tax deadline passes.

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Thanks for reading - you are now the more informed 🙂

- John

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