April 8th Pre-Market

Good Morning

Trump called off the bombs right before the deadline and agreed to a two-week ceasefire. Futures are ripping and we likely see a strong green day. Oil is getting absolutely smoked, down below $95. Everything that got crushed during this war is ripping and everything that benefited is giving it back.

I'm relieved but I'm not relaxed. Two weeks is not a peace deal. Iran's 10-point list includes stuff like sanctions relief and U.S. troop withdrawal that won't get resolved over a long weekend in Islamabad. Enjoying the green but keeping my head on a swivel.

Let's dig in…

Today's Big Picture

Trump Agrees to Two-Week Ceasefire With Iran 

Trump called off the bombing just before his 8 p.m. deadline. Iran accepted and will reopen the Strait of Hormuz temporarily, with tolling charges split between Oman and Iran. Talks start Friday in Islamabad. Iran says the war isn't over — they want all 10 demands met including sanctions relief, compensation, and U.S. troops out of the region. Trump already said no to uranium enrichment. Vance called it a "fragile truce." I've watched this administration walk up to the line and back away enough times to stay skeptical, but markets are buying it.

Oil Crashes as Global Markets Rip Higher 

WTI dropped below $95. Brent fell below $94. Dow futures up over 1,200 points. The Nikkei posted its third-largest rally on record. South Korea up nearly 7%. Europe opened up 4-5% across the board. Exxon $XOM and Chevron $CVX are getting crushed on the other side of this trade. Crypto, airlines, and tech are all catching strong bids. This is a full reversal trade and it's moving fast.

Two Weeks Doesn't Fix the Oil Supply

Bank of America said it plainly: boats will move but oil fields stay shut. About 11 million barrels per day of production is still offline. Restarting those fields takes weeks, maybe months, and nobody is doing that during a temporary truce. Trump also slapped 50% tariffs on any country supplying weapons to Iran, and Saudi Arabia's East-West pipeline was attacked overnight. I'd be careful chasing this move.

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Stock Spotlight (pre-market)

Delta Air Lines $DAL ( ▼ 1.74% )  
Beat on earnings and revenue. Premium travel carried the quarter. Q2 guide came in light at $1.00-$1.50 versus $1.70 expected, but oil falling below $95 basically rewrites that outlook overnight.

Levi Strauss $LEVI ( ▲ 0.31% )  
Raised full-year guidance after a Q1 beat. Direct-to-consumer sales hit half of total revenue for the first time. Stock was up over 9% pre-market.

Tesla $TSLA ( ▼ 1.75% )  
Ripping pre-market even though cheaper oil technically weakens the EV argument. Stock had dropped since the war started and this looks like a relief unwind, not a fundamental re-rate.

Micron $MU ( ▼ 0.05% )  
Leading memory names higher after SK Hynix rallied in Korea on Samsung's blowout profit forecast. UBS flagged DRAM margins at historic highs. Memory has been the market's favorite group all year and it's reclaiming leadership today.

Super Micro Computer $SMCI ( ▲ 2.81% )  
Rising despite disclosing a board investigation into employees indicted for smuggling Nvidia chips to China. The broader tech bid is overriding that headline for now.

RPM International $RPM ( ▼ 0.57% )  
Beat on both lines in fiscal Q3 and reaffirmed mid-single-digit sales growth. Quiet name, loud move.

What to Watch

FOMC Minutes (2:00 p.m. ET) These are from the March meeting, before crude really ran. Mostly stale. What matters is whether the committee was already leaning dovish before the oil shock, because that tells you if today's rate cut repricing has legs.

Waller and Daly Speak Today Two Fed voices on a day when rate expectations just shifted. A dovish nod to the ceasefire and the bond rally keeps going. Hawkish pushback and this equity move fades into the close. We'll cover their comments tonight.

Islamabad Talks Friday Iran says its fingers are "on the trigger." Saudi Arabia wants unrestricted Strait access under international law. That's a wide gap. I think the market gives this rally about 48 hours before it starts demanding proof.

March CPI Friday Did wartime crude already bleed into consumer prices? A hot print unwinds every rate cut bet being priced in today. The market is trading hope right now. Friday is the reality check.

Have a good day 🙂

- John

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