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- April 6th Pre-Market
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Good Morning
Everything today is a placeholder until Trump steps to the mic at 1 PM. Pakistan got a real ceasefire framework on the table overnight, which is more progress than we've had in five weeks, but Iran rejected the one thing that actually matters: reopening the Strait.
Tuesday 8 PM is still the deadline Trump put on the table.
Let’s dig in...
Today's Big Picture
1. Ceasefire Framework Landed.
Pakistan proposed an immediate ceasefire and 15-to-20 days of talks. Iran won't reopen the Strait under any temporary deal. Trump's Tuesday 8 PM deadline for strikes on power plants and bridges stands.
2. Biggest Jobs Beat in 15 Months Meets a Market That Can't Celebrate It
178,000 jobs in March. Triple the consensus. But with oil above $100 and inflation re accelerating, a strong labor market just gives the Fed more reason to stay tight. Good news looks bad news right now.
3. Two Rate Cuts Expected Before the War. Zero Priced In Now.
The bond market moved before the Fed could. The 10 year yield has added 40 basis points since February 28. This week's CPI and PCE prints will decide if the market starts pricing a hike.
P.S. The planned IPOs this year are huge.
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Stock Spotlight (pre-market)
Netflix $NFLX ( ▲ 3.26% )
up on a Goldman upgrade to buy. This isn't a growth call. Goldman sees multiyear buybacks starting. The shift from subscriber story to capital return story is the trade.
Soleno Therapeutics $SLNO ( ▲ 6.76% )
halted up 39 points. Neurocrine $NBIX is paying $53 cash, $2.9 billion deal. Neurocrine is slipping premarket on the price tag. Spread is tight. Not much left here.
Tesla $TSLA ( ▼ 5.42% )
sell reiterated at JPMorgan, $145 target. The overlooked detail: Tesla built 50,000 more cars than it delivered in Q1. That's a record inventory build. Consensus 2026 free cash flow has flipped from a $35.7 billion inflow to a $4.9 billion outflow.
Strategy $MSTR ( ▼ 2.4% )
up leading crypto. Bitcoin touched $70,000 overnight on a short squeeze. $154 million in shorts liquidated in 24 hours per CoinGlass.
Coinbase and Mara moving in sympathy. This reverses fast if the ceasefire falls apart.
Twilio $TWLO ( ▲ 0.38% )
up on a Jefferies upgrade. The thesis: voice AI needs infrastructure and Twilio is it. Pick-and-shovel bet on the next wave of AI spend.
Halliburton $HAL ( ▲ 0.45% )
down with ConocoPhillips $COP and Occidental $OXY. Energy is trading the ceasefire headline. But this is the cheapest hedge against escalation on the board. One Tehran statement flips the entire group.
What to Watch
ISM Services PMI (10:00 AM ET)
First hard data on whether the oil shock is hitting the services economy. Watch the new orders component. A weak print alongside Friday's strong jobs number creates a stagflation signal the bond market will price fast.
Trump Press Conference (1:00 PM ET)
This is the session. Everything before 1 PM is positioning. If he sounds like Tuesday is a real deadline, energy rips and equities give back the morning. If he signals flexibility, oil drops $5. Size accordingly.
Delta Earnings (Wednesday) Delta
$DAL reports with jet fuel up massively since February. If they pull guidance, it confirms the oil shock is eating margins. This is the first corporate reality check on the war's economic damage.
CPI (Friday)
Not about what the Fed does. About whether bond vigilantes keep pushing yields higher. A hot print with oil above $100 and the Strait closed puts 4.50 on the 10-year in play.
Have a good day 🙂
- John
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Note: This newsletter is intended for informational purposes only.