April 6th Market Overview

Happy Monday

Markets drifted higher on ceasefire whispers while Trump set a Tuesday night deadline to bomb Iranian power plants and bridges.

I think we are sleepwalking into tomorrow night. Either we get a deal framework or we get fireworks, the calm right now doesn't match the stakes. If the market was confident in a deal being made by tomorrow night we would have seen oil sell off today.

Let’s dig in...

Today's Big Picture

Tuesday Night Deadline 

Iran rejected the US ceasefire plan but countered with their own proposal through Pakistan. Trump called it a significant step but still threatened to level power plants and bridges if they don't reopen the Strait by 8 PM Tuesday. Gas is already at $4.12 nationally, and JPMorgan warns we could see $5 if the Strait stays closed by mid-April.

Dimon Warns on Inflation 

The JPMorgan CEO used his annual letter to caution that oil shocks could lead to stickier inflation and higher rates than markets expect. He compared this setup to the energy crises that triggered deep recessions in 1974 and 1982. He also flagged that private credit losses are already running higher than they should be given the current environment.

Jobs Look Fine, Services Don't 

Markets finally got to trade Friday's 178,000 jobs number, but the real story is the ISM services report. Prices paid hit their highest level since October 2022 while the employment gauge dropped to a multi-year low. That's the stagflation combo.

Market Overview

Index Performance

Stock Spotlight

Tesla $TSLA ( ▼ 2.47% )  
fell after JPMorgan reiterated a $145 price target. Deliveries missed estimates and unsold inventory hit a record. I agree with their math when 2026 free cash flow consensus has gone from a $35.7 billion inflow to a $4.9 billion outflow.

Strategy $MSTR ( ▲ 6.25% )  
posted a $14.5 billion unrealized loss in Q1 from bitcoin's decline. Michael Saylor ignored the paper hit and bought another $330 million worth last week. The company now holds 766,970 bitcoin.

AppLovin $APP ( ▲ 6.83% )  
moved higher after BTIG raised Q1 estimates above both consensus and guidance, citing stronger performance from non-gaming advertisers.

Big Name Updates

AMC Entertainment $AMC ( ▲ 11.16% )  
reported its best Easter weekend ever. The Super Mario Galaxy Movie drove 6 million moviegoers from Wednesday through Sunday and sold out merchandise across theaters.

Netflix $NFLX ( ▲ 0.02% )  
caught an upgrade to buy from Goldman Sachs. The bank expects the streamer to maintain its content lead and return capital to shareholders over the next several years.

Bank of New York Mellon $BK ( ▲ 1.11% )  
and Robinhood $HOOD both moved higher after Treasury designated BNY to manage the new "Trump Accounts" program for newborns. Robinhood will serve as the brokerage and initial trustee.

Other Notable Company News

Neurocrine Biosciences $NBIX ( ▲ 0.64% )  
agreed to buy Soleno Therapeutics $SLNO for $2.9 billion in cash to expand its rare disease portfolio.

Boot Barn $BOOT ( ▲ 9.91% )  
rallied after Jefferies upgraded to buy with a $195 price target, citing strong new store growth after a selloff.

BlackRock $BLK ( ▼ 0.75% )  
filed to launch a Nasdaq-100 ETF under ticker IQQ, a direct shot at Invesco's $QQQ.

Paramount Skydance $PSKY ( ▲ 3.62% )  
secured close to $24 billion in equity commitments from sovereign wealth funds led by Saudi Arabia to back its Warner Bros. Discovery takeover.

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Sector Watch

Bond Market

The 10-year yield edged up to 4.335. The dollar weakened during Trump's afternoon press conference. Rate cut expectations are dead and markets are now pricing in a potential hike.

WTI crude is technically trading above Brent right now, which almost never happens. It's a backwardation effect from the supply shortfall. Buyers are paying a premium for the earliest possible delivery, and the spread between near-term and later contracts has never been wider.

Policy Watch

Iran 
Trump held a press conference Monday and left no ambiguity. "The entire country can be taken out in one night, and that night might be tomorrow night." He floated taking Iran's oil and charging tolls on the Strait, telling reporters "to the victor belong the spoils."

Iran rejected the US plan and sent back a 10-point counter through Pakistan. Trump called it not good enough but "a significant step."

• Citrini Research sent an analyst to Oman to get eyes on the Strait directly

• They found satellite tracking data is undercounting a dark fleet of vessels spoofing locations through Iran's tolling system

• 21 ships crossed over the weekend, the most since the war started, but mostly Iranian-flagged

Fed 
Kansas City Fed's Schmid said the central bank shouldn't treat this oil shock as transitory. NEC Director Hassett disagrees, betting AI productivity gains will offset inflation and give the Fed room to cut once Warsh takes the chair. The bond market is siding with Schmid.

Global Energy Shock
The Bank of Japan warned that surging oil prices are already hitting corporate profits and consumer spending. Markets now price a 70 percent chance of a BOJ rate hike this month.

According to JPMorgan:

• Several South and Southeast Asian countries are reporting fuel shortages, refinery shutdowns, and emergency declarations

• Australia has diesel shortages

• The US is last in line given domestic production, but California will feel it first through refined product dislocations

What to Watch

Trump's Tuesday Night Deadline 
This is the week's main event. Either we get a deal framework or strikes on Iranian power plants and bridges. Markets will be on edge all day.

Delta Earnings Wednesday 
First airline to report in a quarter defined by fuel costs and shaky consumer confidence. I'm watching how much rising jet fuel is eating into margins and whether they pull guidance.

March CPI Friday 
Economists expect headline rose a full one percent month over month. If it comes in hot, rate hike talk gets very loud. The February PCE print drops Thursday too, but Friday is the one that matters.

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Thanks for reading - you are now the more informed 🙂

- John

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