April 30th Pre-Market

Good Morning

Last day of April and futures are green even with Brent printing a four year high overnight. That tells you everything about how much the AI earnings story is carrying this market right now. Alphabet delivered, Meta got punished for the spending bill, Apple closes the cycle tonight.

Let's dig in...

Today's Big Picture

1. The AI Spending Bill Sorted The Megacaps 

The four biggest tech names committed $725 billion to AI in 2026. The market is now sorting them by who can pay for it. Alphabet's cloud business pulled in $20 billion last quarter, so the spend looks justified. Meta has no cloud business, so the same spend got punished. Apple reports tonight as the one megacap not betting the farm on AI infrastructure.

2. Brent Hit $126 Then Faded Below $114
 
CENTCOM is showing Trump actual strike plans today. Not talking points, not negotiation options. Real plans. After two months of the same Iran stalemate, that's a shift worth paying attention to. Crude jumped 7% on the news overnight before pulling back. Oil priced for this summer is trading way above oil priced a year out. Traders think this ends soon. The White House is acting like it doesn't.

The real money isn't in crude anyway. It's in refined products. Diesel has almost doubled. Refiners pocket the spread between cheap oil going in and expensive fuel coming out. If Hormuz stays shut through May, $VLO and $MPC win. $XOM doesn't.

3. Powell Stays. The Fed Splits Four Ways 

Four Fed officials dissented yesterday. That's the most since 1992. Three want to stop talking about rate cuts. One wanted a cut now. Powell then broke a 75-year tradition by announcing he's staying on the board after his term ends. That kills the open seat Trump was counting on. Warsh takes over June 16. He needs six votes plus his own to move policy, and the inflation hawks have political cover from senators in his own party. Wall Street thinks Warsh means cuts. The math says he can't deliver them. Long-term Treasury yields have not adjusted for that yet.

Market Overview

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Stock Spotlight (pre-market)

Meta $META ( ▼ 0.33% )  

Down after raising 2026 capex to $125-$145 billion from $115-$135 billion. Earnings actually beat. The spend is what spooked the tape. Forced buyers: NVDA, AMD, and AVGO are all green premarket because Meta has chip supply deals with all three. The capex bill becomes their order book.

Alphabet $GOOGL ( ▲ 7.47% )  

Up sharply on Q1 cloud revenue of $20 billion versus $18 billion expected. This is the single print that validates the entire hyperscaler capex story. Cloud bears who said AI spending isn't paying off now have to recalibrate. AWS and Azure are forced to defend share against a faster growing competitor.

Qualcomm $QCOM ( ▲ 6.1% )  

Best megacap chip print this morning after entering the data center market with custom chips for an unnamed hyperscaler. First real custom silicon competitor to Nvidia in years.The "AI equals only Nvidia" trade just got challenged again.

Eli Lilly $LLY ( ▼ 2.61% )  

Raised full year revenue guide to $82-$85 billion from $80-$83 billion. Mounjaro and Zepbound demand is still accelerating. Novo Nordisk has to respond. Healthcare PMs underweight LLY are forced to chase while the rest of the sector flatlines around it.

Caterpillar $CAT ( ▼ 0.96% )  
Q1 EPS of $5.54 against $4.62 expected, up 160 percent in the last year and 41 percent YTD. This isn't an industrial bellwether anymore. It's an AI infrastructure name. Data centers need concrete, earthmoving, and generators.

Apple $AAPL ( ▼ 0.2% )  

Reports after the close, the last megacap of this cycle. Services growth and the China number set Friday's open. Without massive AI capex of its own, its the cleanest test of whether the market punishes AI absence as hard as AI spend without revenue.

What to Watch

The Kospi Just Had Its Best Month Since 1998 

South Korea's Kospi closed April up 31 percent. SK Hynix is up 60 percent on the month, Samsung 35 percent. This is the international confirmation that the $725 billion in hyperscaler capex is actually flowing to memory and HBM suppliers. While US traders argue about whether Meta's bill is too big, Korean memory names are pricing the bill getting paid in full. Watch $MU today for the US sympathy trade.

Yen Intervention Aftermath 

Yen had its biggest day since 2022 on Tokyo's final warning. If their Ministry of Finance actually sold dollars overnight, the carry trade unwind is the next domino. Watch dollar weakness bleed into gold and Emerging markets equities first.

SCOTUS On Cook 

A ruling against Governor Cook this morning prices Fed independence out one more notch. Dollar bid, long end bid, gold bid. Tail risk almost nobody is hedging into May.

- John

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