April 29th Pre-Market

Good Morning

Powell takes the podium at 2:30 for what's likely his last meeting as Fed chair. Then four of the biggest tech companies report earnings after the close. Oil's on day eight of gains and the UAE just walked out of OPEC.

Let's dig in...

Today's Big Picture

Big Tech Earnings Land On A shaky AI Story 

Alphabet, Amazon, Meta, and Microsoft all report after the close tonight. Combined, they're spending $650 billion on AI infrastructure in 2026, with Amazon alone at $200 billion. WSJ reported yesterday that OpenAI is missing its own revenue targets and privately worried about funding $600 billion in compute commitments on $13 billion of revenue. The companies bankrolling this buildout need to show real demand tonight, not just bigger spending plans.

Powell's Final Meeting, Tone Is Everything 

The Fed will hold rates steady today, that part is already baked in. What matters is how Powell sounds at his 2:30 press conference. Inflation is still stuck near 3 percent and oil keeps climbing, so he has every reason to push back on rate cut hopes. Most investors are betting his replacement, Kevin Warsh, will be friendlier and cut faster after May 15. If Powell sounds tougher than expected today, stocks and bonds both get hit into the close.

Oil Day Eight, And Iran Is Cracking

Brent is above $114 and WTI is up close to 50 percent since the war started February 28. The UAE leaves OPEC on May 1 and Trump is preparing an extended port blockade on Iran. What's underappreciated: Iran's economy is in free-fall with 67 percent inflation, a million out of work, and the rial at a record low. This rally has an endpoint, but it's Tehran folding, not OPEC reacting.

Market Overview

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Stock Spotlight (pre-market)

Seagate Technology $STX ( ▼ 2.82% )  

Up sharply premarket on a Q4 guide well above Street estimates. The read through pulled Western Digital, Sandisk, and Micron higher with it. AI storage demand is still real, even after Tuesday's OpenAI scare.

NXP Semiconductors $NXPI ( ▼ 2.74% )  

Moving up in premarket on a Q1 beat and a guide above consensus for next quarter. Second clean semi print of the morning. This quietly repairs yesterday's chip damage heading into tonight.

Robinhood $HOOD ( ▼ 2.24% )  

Down hard on a Q1 miss, with revenue at $1.07 billion against a $1.18 billion consensus. Prediction markets and Gold subscriptions grew, but trading revenue came in light.

Starbucks $SBUX ( ▼ 0.62% )  

Up early after raising full year same store sales guidance to at least 5 percent and lifting EPS. CEO Brian Niccol calls it the turn in the turnaround on Squawk at 9 AM ET. Second straight quarter of traffic growth is the line that matters.

Visa $V ( ▼ 0.11% )  

Beat on Q2 and raised its full year forecast. Mastercard $MA ( ▲ 0.24% )  bid in sympathy. The payments tape directly contradicts the consumer is weakening narrative making the rounds.

Brown-Forman $BF.B ( ▲ 0.51% )  

Down after Pernod Ricard walked from merger talks. The Jack Daniel's parent now sells its turnaround story alone with spirits demand still weak. Deal arbs are out, real money has to decide.

What to Watch

Wheat At A Two-Year High 
wheat is up nearly 30 percent YTD and 11 percent since the war started. Powell will talk oil at 2:30. Nobody will ask him about food. This is the inflation pass-through that hits Q3 grocery prices and core CPI prints, and it's quietly building under the radar.

30-Year Yield At The 5 Percent Wall 

The long bond is back at the level that capped equities twice already. A hawkish Powell tone or a hot guide pushes us through. That matters more for the S&P over the next two weeks than any single tech print.

Supreme Court On Lisa Cook 

The Court could rule this morning on Trump's attempted firing of Governor Cook. A ruling against Cook is dollar bid and long-end bid as Fed independence gets priced out. This is the tail risk nobody is hedging.

- John

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