April 28th Pre-Market

Good Morning

WSJ dropped a brutal report on OpenAI overnight - they're missing internal targets and the CFO is openly worried about paying $600 billion in compute deals.

The whole AI (industrial) complex is gapping down on the report.

UAE just said they're leaving OPEC and oil is back above $112. Mixed bag of earnings on top of all that. I should have filled up gas on Sunday.

Let's dig in…

Today's Big Picture

1. OpenAI Revenue Targets Miss

OpenAI missed revenue and user targets, and CFO Sarah Friar privately questioned how the company pays $600 billion in compute commitments on $13 billion of revenue. That's the math problem the whole AI buildout has been ignoring. Oracle, CoreWeave, Nvidia and AMD are all gapping down because they're the ones holding those contracts.

2. UAE Quits OPEC As Oil Stays Bid 

The UAE is leaving OPEC on May 1 after almost 60 years in. They were the third largest producer, so this guts the cartel's ability to manage supply right when Hormuz is still blocked and Brent is above $112. Citigroup is now calling for $130 Brent if the closure holds through June. The Fed walks into tomorrow's meeting with another inflation problem and Trump is expected to respond to Iran's proposal today.

3. Earnings Tape Splits Wide Open 

GM raised 2026 guidance and is getting a $500 million tariff refund. BP profit doubled on oil trading, Coke and Sherwin-Williams both beat.

Spotify is gapping down on weak Q2 guidance but strong profit, UPS missed with revenue falling, and Hilton came up short on the top line.

The read: industrials and oil are working, consumer subscription and travel are getting hit.

Market Overview

Today’s Sponsor

These Founders Unlocked 22X Growth

In 2018, Brandon and Jennifer Robinson licensed a single mini-golf pub. They had a hunch people wanted more than just a bar. They wanted an experience.

They were more than right.

Five locations later, Tipsy Putt is boasting 5,188 active members and 22x revenue growth.

Over 10,000 people have downloaded Tipsy Putt’s app. The company has been featured on the Dan Patrick Show, and celebrity guests keep walking through the doors.

This is a proven, operating brand with a loyal fanbase and momentum that keeps compounding.

Now the Robinsons are opening their San Francisco flagship, and retail investors can own shares in the location before the 2027 grand opening.

Invest by April 29th at midnight PT and get up to 32% bonus shares.

I’m Ready to Invest

^{This is a paid advertisement for Tipsy Putt Regulation CF offering. Please read the offering circular at https://invest.tipsyputt.com/}

Stock Spotlight (pre-market)

Oracle $ORCL ( ▼ 0.19% )  
gapping down on the OpenAI report. The $300 billion five-year cloud deal just became the most scrutinized contract in tech. If OpenAI's numbers are wobbly, so is Oracle's whole AI bull case.

Spotify $SPOT ( ▼ 4.28% )  
gapping down after Q2 operating income guidance landed well below estimates. Looks like the recent price hike is costing subscribers faster than the Street modeled.

General Motors $GM ( ▼ 0.12% )  
gapping up. Raised 2026 EBITDA guidance to $13.5 to $15.5 billion and beat Q1 EPS by more than a dollar. Also getting a $500 million tariff refund. Cleanest beat of the morning.

BP $BP ( ▼ 0.61% )  
profit more than doubled to $3.2 billion in Q1. The trading desk made a killing on Iran war volatility. With UAE leaving OPEC, integrated oil is the only obvious place to hide.

UPS $UPS ( ▲ 1.14% )  
down even though they beat. Profit and revenue both fell year over year and the guide was uninspiring. Real economy tell ahead of Visa and Starbucks tonight.

Visa $V ( ▲ 0.07% )  
reports after the close. Single best read on consumer health this week. I'm watching cross-border volume given the travel disruption from Iran.

What to Watch

Trump's Iran Response (Today, Time TBD) 
The White House said Trump will address Iran's proposal soon. If he rejects it, oil goes higher and risk goes lower into the close. If he accepts, it's the biggest single day of macro relief we've had in months.

Mag-7 Setup For Tomorrow Night 
Alphabet, Microsoft, Amazon and Meta all report after Wednesday's close. Today's tape is positioning into that print. If AI capex commentary disappoints tomorrow night, this morning was the appetizer.

Fed Meeting Begins (Decision Wednesday 2:00 PM ET) 
Powell's likely last meeting as chair kicks off today. With oil ripping and global inflation re-accelerating, anyone hoping for dovish language is going to be disappointed.

- John

Today’s Sponsor

Your next great hire lives in Slack.

Viktor is an AI coworker that connects to your tools and ships real work. Ask Viktor to pull a report, build a client dashboard, or source 200 leads matching your ICP. Most teams hand over half their ops within a week.

Add Viktor to Slack for free.