April 24th Pre-Market

Good Morning

Intel broke its 25-year high and the whole semi complex is dragging the Nasdaq higher, but the Dow can't shake Brent above $100.

VIX climbing alongside stocks this week tells me big money is hedging into these highs, not chasing them. Leadership has narrowed to just semis. Mag7 earnings will play a big roll into next weeks volatility alongside (hopefully) new ceasefire chats.

Let's dig in…

Today's Big Picture

1. Trump Threatens UK Tariff Over Digital Tax 

The president said he will hit the UK with a big tariff unless it drops the digital services tax on Apple, Google, and Meta. This is a warning shot at France, Italy, and Spain, who run the same playbook. The levy raised £944m last year, so London has fiscal reasons to hold the line. Watch mega-cap tech and the pound for any ripple.

2. Hormuz Still Shut Going Into The Weekend 

Iran-US talks in Pakistan never materialized and Iran seized more cargo ships overnight. Trump ordered the Navy to shoot at any boat laying mines in the strait. Brent is on pace for its biggest weekly gain since the first week of the war in March. Any Sunday headline is Monday gap fuel.

3. Intel Blows The Doors Off of Earnings

Intel beat by 28 cents and guided Q2 well above the Street. AMD is up in sympathy, SOXX riding a 17 day streak. The stock is now testing its dot-com ceiling at $75.83 for the first time in 25 years. 

Market Overview

Today’s Sponsor

Why ‘Eatertainment’ Brands Are Worth Billions

Before a restaurant sells any food, they need to buy it. That costs up to 35% on every dollar.

But Tipsy Putt’s business model cuts that number to less than 20%.

It’s called “Eatertainment,” the same model that turned TopGolf and Bowlero into billion-dollar companies.

Tipsy Putt is on a mission to dominate the mini golf slice of the Eatertainment space. Their mini golf, craft cocktails, and local eats have already drawn 5,000+ active members. And out of those three revenue streams, the highest-margin one (mini golf) requires no inventory whatsoever.

The result?

• Five profitable California locations

• 22x revenue growth from 2020-24

• 75% more potential revenue per square foot

Now, they’re bringing this model to San Francisco, America's #3 foodie city. It’s going to address a Bay Area market of 7 million people. You can get up to 32% bonus shares in Tipsy Putt’s SF flagship location when you invest by April 29th at midnight PT.

I’m Ready to Invest

^{This is a paid advertisement for Tipsy Putt Regulation CF offering. Please read the offering circular at https://invest.tipsyputt.com/}

Stock Spotlight (pre-market)

Advanced Micro Devices $AMD ( ▲ 0.62% )  
DA Davidson upgraded on the view that Intel's CPU ramp previews AMD's own. Funds underweight AMD going into next week's earnings now have a timing problem.

Procter & Gamble $PG ( ▲ 2.0% )  
First volume growth in a year (+2) is the real headline, not the beat. Tells you the consumer isn't dead and gives PMs cover to rebuild defensives with Brent at $104.

Taiwan Semiconductor $TSM ( ▼ 1.23% )  
Taiwan raised the cap on how much of a fund can sit in a single stock from 10 to 25. TSM is 40 of the local index, so managers who stay at 10 now lag the benchmark every day it goes up. They have to buy to keep their jobs.

MaxLinear $MXL ( ▲ 1.06% )  
The small-cap version of the Intel story. Beat and raised guide, and it's the next-tier chase if you missed AMD off the headline. Thin float cuts both ways.

Avis Budget $CAR ( ▼ 48.39% )  
The squeeze is over. Stock has given back 68% over two sessions and late longs are the seller. Textbook reminder that squeezes are not a reason to stay long.

Nike $NKE ( ▼ 1.97% )  
Cutting 1,400 jobs. The layoff is small but the signal is big. Management is finally treating margins as the problem activists have been flagging for a year.

What to Watch

Mag 7 Capex Risk (Next Week) 

Microsoft, Apple, Google, Amazon, and Meta all report. With Brent above $100, expect analysts to grill every call on energy costs eating AI capex. Tesla's $25 billion capex warning was the preview.

Fed Meeting (Next Week, Possibly Powell's Last) 

Rates holding is locked in. The tape trades the tone. Any Powell hint that oil pass through reshapes the cut path is the real catalyst.

Michigan Sentiment (10 AM ET) 
The April prelim was the lowest reading in the survey's 70-year history. Today's final tells you if the oil spike made it worse. A weak print and money rotates out of semis into staples like P&G.

- John

Today’s Sponsor

Institutions Aren't Guessing. Neither Should You.

94% of institutional investors now allocate to private credit (Nuveen, 2025). Percent gives accredited investors direct access to private credit: 16.72% current weighted average coupon, terms as short as 3 months, starting at $500. $1.82B funded since 2018. New investors can receive up to $500 credit.

Follow the institutional money.

Alternative investments are speculative. Past performance not indicative of future results. Terms apply.