April 24th Market Overview

Happy Friday

S&P 500 and Nasdaq closed at fresh record highs. DOJ closed the Powell probe this morning and Warsh's path to confirmation cleared overnight. Intel had its best single day since Black Monday's aftermath in 1987.

Consumer sentiment printed the worst reading in 70 years but the market seems to be less sensitive to war headlines as we get into fresh highs into the weekend.

Let’s dig in...

Today's Big Picture

1. DOJ Drops Powell Probe, Warsh Path Clears

Pirro abandoned the criminal investigation this morning and handed it to the Fed's Inspector General. Tillis had the whole Senate on hold until that probe closed. Now it's closed. Kalshi odds on Warsh getting confirmed by May 15 moved from 30 cents to 86 cents in hours.

2. Consumer Sentiment Hits a 70-Year Low

Final April Michigan reading came in at 49.8, the lowest print in the 70-year history of the survey. Worse than 2008. Worse than COVID. Worse than the 70s inflation shock. Retail sales and bank earnings say households are still spending fine. When mood and wallet disagree, I trust the wallet.

3. Uncle Sam's Intel Trade Is Up Roughly $27 Billion

Treasury converted $8.9 billion of unpaid CHIPS Act grants into Intel equity at $20.47 back in August. Intel closed near $83 today. That's about $27 billion in paper gains for the government. I'm not sold on taxpayer equity stakes as policy, but the scoreboard says what it says.

Market Overview

Index Performance

Stock Spotlight

Intel $INTC ( ▲ 20.77% )  
had its best single session since October 29, 1987, eight days after Black Monday. The stock broke its dot-com ceiling at $75.83 and held it for the first time in 25 years. Bulls are watching $75 as the new floor and $65 as the line where this breakout dies.

Nvidia $NVDA ( ▲ 4.31% )  
crossed the $5 trillion market cap line again and hit a new all-time closing high. Last time it touched $5T was October 29, 2025. Six months to recover the throne, and it did it on Intel's earnings, not its own.

Alphabet $GOOGL ( ▲ 1.63% )  
added to gains on a Bloomberg report it will invest up to $40 billion in Anthropic. Anthropic has now lined up around $65 billion in new funding. The AI race is a balance sheet race now.

X-Energy $XE ( ▲ 26.44% )  
opened at $30.11 after pricing its IPO at $23, the largest nuclear public offering on record. The company closed near a $12 billion valuation. Ken Griffin turned a $100 million personal bet into roughly $300-400 million in eighteen months.

Big Name Updates

Charter Communications $CHTR fell hard after reporting a 120,000 sequential decline in internet subscribers. The story is no longer cable vs streaming. It's cable losing its internet moat too.

Comcast $CMCSA ( ▼ 12.83% ) followed Charter lower on a Deutsche Bank downgrade to hold. The firm said there's visibility into sustainable growth but no reason to pay up for a stable, non-growing business.

Eli Lilly $LLY ( ▼ 3.67% ) slipped on soft first-week prescription data for Foundayo, its new GLP-1 pill. Wegovy's brand recognition won round one.

Novo Nordisk $NVO ( ▲ 6.84% ) caught a bid as traders flipped the Lilly trade.

HCA Healthcare $HCA ( ▼ 8.66% ) dropped on a mild flu season that cut admissions. The bigger worry is ACA subsidies phasing out and uncompensated care rising.

Procter & Gamble $PG ( ▲ 2.74% ) beat on the top and bottom line. CFO Andre Schulten said tax refunds, not wages, were the "bright spot" lifting U.S. sales. Honest answer from a CFO.

Other Notable Company News

Lockheed Martin $LMT ( ▼ 3.52% ) and Northrop Grumman $NOC both extended losses to a ninth straight session after Trump fired Navy Secretary Phelan (his personal friend) on Wednesday. Every prime is now worried their production timelines are next.

Boyd Gaming $BYD ( ▼ 5.88% )  
missed on Q1 EPS at $1.60 against the $1.73 consensus.

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Sector Watch

Bond Market

• 10-year yield flat at 4.31 ahead of next week's Fed meeting.

• 2-year at 3.77.

• Dollar index softer at 95.47.

• VIX closed at 18.54, finally breaking down while stocks ripped higher.

Policy Watch

Fed

Warsh told the Senate this week he wants to move the Fed off core PCE and onto "trimmed mean" inflation metrics (Dallas Fed, Cleveland Fed versions that strip outliers). Evercore's Krishna Guha flagged that those metrics run hotter right now, which conveniently gives Warsh cover to cut. Warren called the probe drop political cover to install a "sock puppet." She's right about intent. She'll still lose the vote.

Middle East

White House official confirmed Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner are headed to Islamabad for talks with Iranian officials. Tehran's foreign minister was expected to land tonight. Hormuz still effectively shut. Brent closed at $105, up roughly 17% on the week, the biggest weekly gain since the war started in March.

Tax Refunds Running Hot

IRS paid out $296 billion in refunds this year, up 17% from last year's $253 billion. Average refund jumped 11% to $3,275, thanks to the new deductions for tips, overtime, SALT, and seniors. This is the hidden force propping up P&G's "stable consumer" line. Sentiment is at a 70-year low, but refund checks are cashing.

What to Watch

Warsh Senate Hearing
This matters more than any single rate decision this year. His answers on Fed independence after a year of Trump pressure tell us what kind of chair he'd be. Watch how hard the banking committee pushes him on rates.

Iran Ceasefire Deadline
If Tehran skips the Pakistan talks and the ceasefire lapses, oil doesn't stop at $90. Watch Hormuz shipping traffic and any follow-through on Trump's power plant threats.

Consumer Sentiment Friday
Preliminary April reading was the lowest month on record. Friday's final number confirms whether that holds. The gap between Wall Street at record highs and Main Street at record lows is the widest ever measured. Something has to give.

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