April 23rd Market Overview

Happy Thursday

Weird day. Software got cracked while chips kept ripping to new highs. ServiceNow had its worst day in ten years. IBM got sold off on nothing. Texas Instruments, which makes the most boring chips on earth, had its biggest day since 2000.

Not sure who is wrong yet but I'm watching it closely.

Oil back over $105. Iran ceasefire looking shakier and Trump told the Navy to start shooting boats in the Strait of Hormuz. The market might be ignoring it more these days but that's not the behavior of a situation that's calming down imo.

Let’s dig in...

Today's Big Picture

Software Sector Takes Its Worst Day In Over A Year

ServiceNow had its worst day in a decade. IBM slid on flat guidance. The software ETF dropped hard and dragged Microsoft down with it. The fear driving all of it is simple: why pay ServiceNow or Oracle thousands per seat per year when ChatGPT and Claude can build the same workflow in an afternoon? Nobody knows if that actually plays out. But you saw what the market was willing to price in today. This probably isn't the last bad day for the group.

Oil Climbs For A Fourth Straight Day

Brent crude pushed above $105 after US-Iran talks failed to restart. Trump ordered the Navy to shoot any boat laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz. The head of the IEA called this the biggest energy security threat in history. That's the chief of the global energy watchdog saying "biggest ever." It's why American Airlines just cut its 2026 profit outlook by over a dollar per share and why AmEx is flagging a spike in customer refund requests. Expensive fuel eventually shows up in everything you buy.

Chip Rally Gets Broader And More Stretched

Texas Instruments had its biggest day since October 2000 after guiding Q2 revenue way above consensus. The semi index has made 12 straight intraday records. Chips have added over $3 trillion in market cap in 17 trading days, a move almost nobody in the market today has lived through.

The index now sits more stretched above its 200-day moving average than at any point since the dot-com bubble. You know how that one ended.

Market Overview

Index Performance

Stock Spotlight

Tesla $TSLA ( ▼ 3.47% )  
got hit after Musk admitted on the earnings call that Hardware 3 cars cannot do unsupervised full self-driving. Roughly 4 million vehicles are affected. GLJ Research puts the retrofit bill at $3 to $5 billion. Tesla's Q1 net income was $477 million.

Meta $META ( ▼ 2.17% )  
is laying off 8,000 workers starting May 20 and scrapping plans to fill 6,000 open roles. All of it is going to AI spending. Full pivot in motion.

Netflix $NFLX ( ▼ 0.24% )  
authorized another $25 billion in buybacks after walking away from the Warner Bros. Discovery deal. They already had $6.8 billion left on the old program. Returning capital instead of forcing a messy megamerger.

Big Name Updates

American Express $AXP ( ▼ 4.67% )  
fell despite beating estimates. The CFO said airline spending weakened in late March and into April because of the Middle East conflict. Refund requests are spiking. Consumer stress showing up in the data.

Microsoft $MSFT ( ▼ 3.91% )  
got dragged into the software selloff. When the biggest, most durable name in the sector takes a hit with the smaller ones, traders are selling first and asking questions later.

Blackstone $BX ( ▼ 6.61% )  
president Jon Gray said AI infrastructure is now the firm's biggest driver. Eight of their top 10 Q1 investments were in data centers, LNG, and battery storage. Not a single software name.

Other Notable Company News

American Airlines $AAL ( ▲ 2.35% )  
cut its 2026 outlook to a range spanning a small loss to a small profit. Fuel added $4 billion to this year's costs.

Honeywell $HON ( ▼ 3.02% )  
issued weak Q2 guidance and blamed the Middle East for hurting its automation business.

Freeport-McMoRan $FCX ( ▼ 12.59% )  
dropped hard after warning its Indonesian copper mine will ramp back up slower than planned. Water pooled in the mine during the six-month shutdown.

Lululemon $LULU ( ▼ 11.97% )  
hit a fresh 52-week low after naming former Nike exec Heidi O'Neill as CEO starting September.

Lockheed Martin $LMT ( ▼ 4.5% )  
burned through $291 million in cash this quarter and traded down with the rest of the defense names.

Today’s Sponsor

$1B Money Manager's Biggest AI Bet of 2026?

Louis Navellier called Nvidia at split-adjusted $4. He's calling this one now. An AI breakthrough he says could make ChatGPT obsolete — and trigger a 70X investment boom in the process. He's presenting the name and ticker symbol live. Watch free.

Watch Louis Present Live

Sector Watch

Bond Market

10-year yield held steady in a quiet session while equities and oil did all the work. Dollar ticked higher on safe-haven flows. Tomorrow brings the final University of Michigan April consumer sentiment read at 10am.

Policy Watch

Iran And The Strait Of Hormuz

Trump ordered the Navy to shoot and kill any boat laying mines in the strait. Israeli Defense Minister Katz said Israel is prepared to escalate. Iran's parliament speaker reportedly resigned from the negotiating team. Nothing about this is de-escalating.

Marijuana Reclassification

The Trump administration reclassified marijuana as a less dangerous drug. The cannabis ETF is up big on the week but gave back gains today. Names to watch: Curaleaf, Trulieve, Green Thumb, Tilray, Aurora Cannabis.

Panama Canal Premium Pricing

Some ships have paid over $1 million to jump the line through the Panama Canal since the Mideast war started. Average auction price ran up to $385,000 from $140,000 before the conflict. Those costs eventually work their way into everything consumers buy.

Spirit Airlines Bailout

The Trump administration is reportedly close to lending Spirit Airlines up to $500 million in exchange for warrants. Low-cost carriers are getting crushed by jet fuel costs they can't pass to price-sensitive customers.

What to Watch

Intel Earnings After The Bell

Intel reports tonight after a huge run this month. The stock is pressing against a ceiling that capped it in 2020 and 2021. CPU demand tied to AI agents is the story Wall Street wants.

Consumer Sentiment Tomorrow

Final Michigan April read at 10am. With airline spending softening and refund requests climbing at AmEx, I want to see if fuel costs are finally cracking the consumer.

Oil And Iran Through The Weekend

Tehran says it has no immediate plans to negotiate. One weekend headline sends Brent to $110 or back to $95. Position size accordingly.

10 AI Stocks to Lead the Next Decade

MarketBeat did an excellent job on this AI infrastructure leaders report

Thanks for reading - you are now the more informed 🙂

- John

Today’s Sponsor

What happens when the S&P moves 3% during your commute?

We are living in volatile times. While you cannot control the state of international affairs, you can position your portfolio accordingly.

Liquid is one of the fastest growing trading platforms, allowing users to trade stocks, commodities, FX, and more 24/7/365 from their phone and computer.

Trade 24/7 on Liquid