April 22nd Pre-Market

Good Morning

Trump extended the Iran ceasefire last night and Iranian gunboats answered with seizing two ships in the Strait a few hours later. Trump himself called Iran's government "seriously fractured," which translates…there's nobody over there with the authority to actually sign a deal. Stocks are taking this as a celebration w/ futures green.

Tesla earnings after close today.

Let's dig in…

Today's Big Picture

1. Hormuz Attacks Call The Ceasefire's Bluff 

Ceasefire extended, blockade stays, and Iranian gunboats fired on two ships within hours of the announcement. Equities are pricing peace while Brent is holding $99 and Citigroup models $110 this quarter if Hormuz stays choked. JPMorgan now pegs the global oil deficit at 15 to 16 million barrels per day. The trade is tankers, not crude, DHT and Frontline get paid on disruption regardless of direction.

2. SpaceX Bought Its Way Into AI Coding 

SpaceX secured an option to acquire code-generation startup Cursor for $60 billion, with a $10 billion partnership as the fallback. That folds Cursor into the xAI-SpaceX empire right before the SpaceX IPO and hands Grok a real foothold in developer tools, where it has been losing to OpenAI and Anthropic.

The read-through: when SpaceX prices its IPO, the AI coding revenue line is no longer zero. That changes the valuation math for every public AI name competing for the same developer spend.

3. Google Is Quietly Trying to Break Nvidia's Moat 

Google launched two new AI chips yesterday, one for training models and one for running them. The bigger story is who's buying them: Anthropic just committed to multiple gigawatts of Google chips, Meta signed a multibillion-dollar deal, and OpenAI is now using them too. These are Nvidia's biggest customers building their own way out. More than half of Nvidia's data center revenue last quarter came from these same companies, and they're quietly funding the competition.

Market Overview

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Stock Spotlight (pre-market)

Boeing $BA ( ▼ 2.63% )  

reported an adjusted loss of 20 cents against 83 cents expected. The real tell is free cash flow at negative $179 million versus negative $1.6 billion a year ago. Ortberg's turnaround is actually working, and 737 Max 7 and Max 10 certification is now expected this year with deliveries in 2027.

GE Vernova $GEV ( ▲ 0.11% )  

Beat revenue at $9.34 billion and is moving higher on guidance. This is the clearest read on power infrastructure for AI data centers. Funds underweight the grid buildout trade are the marginal buyer here.

Adobe $ADBE ( ▼ 0.58% )  

Authorized a $25 billion buyback through April 2030. The stock is down heavy year to date on the AI threat narrative and management is now setting the floor themselves.

Palantir $PLTR ( ▲ 0.06% )  

Signed a $300 million USDA contract. The story is the widening federal footprint beyond defense, which the commercial slowdown bears have not priced. Burry's short is fighting a growing government book.

Capital One $COF ( ▼ 1.56% )  

Missed both lines at $4.42 against $4.55 expected. If COF is missing on credit trends, the regional and consumer finance group has a read through problem before next week's peer prints.

United Airlines $UAL ( ▼ 1.8% )  

Cut 2026 guidance to $7 to $11 from $12 to $14 on higher fuel. Delta, American, and the entire airline group now have to choose: match UAL's caution or hold and look reckless. Either way estimates come down.

What to Watch

UK Hosts Hormuz Coalition (Today) 

Britain convening more than 30 countries on reopening the Strait. A multinational escort plan is bullish for tanker stocks and bearish for crude.

Tariff Refund Portal Opens 

Customs and Border Protection opened the portal Monday for the $166 billion in tariffs the Supreme Court invalidated in February. Over 300,000 importers are eligible. Retailers, auto parts, and apparel names get a cash windfall nobody has priced. Watch the small and mid-cap importers.

- John

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