April 15th Pre-Market

Good Morning

Nine wins in ten sessions and the S&P is one bad breath away from its all-time high with no deal signed, no talks scheduled, and a ceasefire that expires next week.

Trump says watch the next two days. I'm watching, but we're simultaneously preparing for peace and tightening the chokehold on Hormuz. We need deals in place before volatility settles.

That contradiction is the whole market right now.

Let's dig in...

Today's Big Picture

1. Trump Says Watch The Next Two Days 

Trump called the war "close to over" and said talks could resume in Islamabad by Thursday. That matters because the ceasefire expires next week and this nine-session rally has no agreement underneath it. Meanwhile, the U.S. naval blockade of Hormuz is fully operational and Tehran is reportedly pausing its own shipments to avoid a confrontation before talks begin.

2. Bank Earnings Are Confirming The Consumer, Not The Economy 

Bank of America beat with $1.11 per share on $30.43 billion in revenue. Morgan Stanley beat with $3.43 on $20.58 billion. Both were powered by trading desks printing on war volatility, not by underlying economic strength.

The BofA fund manager survey out yesterday tells the other side: growth expectations are at their lowest since early 2022 and inflation pessimism is the highest since 2021. Banks are making money on chaos.

3. The Hormuz Blockade Is Tightening, Not Loosening 

The U.S. naval blockade is now fully enforced. Eight tankers have already been turned around. Treasury is letting the waiver that allowed some Iranian crude purchases expire this Saturday, and the Russian crude waiver lapsed last week. Brent is still trading above $95, roughly a third above pre-war levels. The IMF cut its global growth outlook Tuesday and warned that an extended conflict pushes the world to the edge of recession. The rally says peace is coming.

Market Overview

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Stock Spotlight (pre-market)

Snap $SNAP ( ▲ 0.08% )  
is cutting roughly 1,000 jobs to reallocate toward profitability. The Street likes layoffs from unprofitable companies because it signals management finally cares about margins.

Robinhood $HOOD ( ▲ 0.25% )  
is up after the SEC announced it will scrap day-trading limits for smaller retail accounts. That directly expands Robinhood's addressable market overnight.

Nvidia $NVDA ( ▼ 0.19% )  
expanded beyond GPUs with Ising, an open quantum AI model family already in use at labs like EeroQ and IQM. Ten straight winning sessions and Wedbush's Dan Ives says money is rotating hard into semis out of software. The trend holds as long as the ceasefire holds.

Broadcom $AVGO ( ▼ 2.05% )  
announced a 1-gigawatt custom chip deployment with Meta and CEO Hock Tan is stepping off Meta's board. Removing that conflict of interest clears the path for the partnership to scale without governance questions.

GitLab $GTLB ( ▲ 0.37% )  
landed an expanded Google Cloud partnership to distribute its AI tools. The stock is down more than half this year on fears that AI destroys its business model. This deal is the counter-argument.

Nike $NKE ( ▲ 0.82% )  
CEO Elliott Hill bought more stock this morning. Insider buying from a new CEO in a name this beaten down is a confidence signal, not a catalyst. It doesn't change the fundamentals today, but it puts the stock on watch lists.

What to Watch

Fed's Barr And Bowman (Today)
Both speak later today and the market needs to hear how the Fed views war-driven inflation. Oil is still roughly a third above pre-war levels. If either flags energy costs as a reason to stay restrictive, rate cut expectations take a hit.

Iranian Crude Waiver Expires This Weekend 
Treasury is letting the temporary waiver that allowed some purchases of Iranian crude lapse on Saturday. The Russian crude waiver already expired last week. This tightens global supply further at the worst possible time for energy markets.

Fund Manager Sentiment Is Ugly Under The Surface 
The latest BofA fund manager survey shows growth expectations at their lowest since early 2022. Inflation pessimism is at its highest since 2021. Overall sentiment is the worst since last summer. This rally is running directly against the most bearish institutional positioning in nearly a year.
Have a good day 🙂

- John

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