April 15th Market Overview

Happy Wednesday

The S&P 500 cleared 7,000 today for a new all-time high. It took just eleven trading days to erase the entire Iran war selloff.

Interactive Brokers' Steve Sosnick wrote this morning: "Vibes are more powerful than reality."

Let’s dig in...

Today's Big Picture

1. Eleven Days Wiped the War Clean 

The S&P 500 erased the whole Iran war drawdown in eleven days to hit a new record. The Nasdaq flipped from oversold to overbought faster than any time in four decades of data and extended its winning streak to 11 days, its longest since 2021. Investors are pricing in peace before anyone has actually signed a deal. This rally is running entirely on hope.

2. Peace Priced In, Nothing Signed 

Trump told Fox Business the war is "very close to over." Meanwhile, Iran's foreign ministry says no date is set for talks and neither side has approved a ceasefire extension. Rystad Energy just doubled its infrastructure repair estimate to $58 billion, with Iran alone facing up to $19 billion in damage. The market is ignoring the actual math of this conflict for now.

3. Record Bank Earnings, Rising Food Bank Lines Bank of America 

$BAC and Morgan Stanley $MS both beat on earnings and revenue today. Consumer spending held up, trading desks posted records, and every CEO used the word "resilient."

The Fed's Beige Book told a completely different story: rising food bank demand, widespread trading down, and low-income consumers getting crushed by gas prices. Watch what consumers actually do, not what bank executives say.

Market Overview

Index Performance

Stock Spotlight

Broadcom $AVGO ( ▲ 3.61% )  
expanded its custom AI chip partnership with Meta $META through 2029, starting with over 1 gigawatt of compute. CEO Hock Tan is leaving Meta's board to become a chip strategy advisor.

Robinhood $HOOD ( ▲ 10.53% )  
rallied after the SEC killed the pattern day trader rule. Removing the $25,000 minimum balance requirement for frequent traders is a massive win for retail brokerages with smaller average accounts.

Allbirds $BIRD ( ▲ 691.17% )  
went from a failing shoe brand to an AI infrastructure play overnight. They raised $50 million to buy GPUs and rent them out. I've seen this movie before. Remember Long Island Iced Tea pivoting to crypto in 2017?

Big Name Updates

Nvidia $NVDA ( ▲ 1.31% )  
is on pace for its 11th straight winning session, the longest daily streak in company history. Tech money keeps flowing back into the hardware giants.

Snap $SNAP ( ▲ 7.59% )  
is cutting about 1,000 employees, roughly 16 percent of full-time staff, after activist pressure from Irenic Capital. The company raised Q1 revenue guidance and sees over $500 million in annualized savings.

Nike $NKE ( ▲ 3.11% )  
saw heavy insider buying from its top brass. CEO Elliott Hill and director Tim Cook both picked up roughly a million dollars in stock each. When leadership buys with their own cash, I pay attention.

Caterpillar $CAT ( ▼ 3.22% )  
dropped after Bloomberg reported it acquired Monarch Tractor, a self-driving electric tractor company. The market clearly hates the acquisition.

Other Notable Company News

Live Nation $LYV ( ▼ 6.29% )  
took a hit after a federal jury found the company runs an illegal ticketing monopoly. 34 states had sued.

Cloudflare $NET ( ▲ 6.1% )  
caught an upgrade to overweight at Piper Sandler. They called the recent pullback a clear buying window.

CoreWeave $CRWV ( ▲ 1.49% )  
landed another billion from Jane Street, plus $6 billion in planned tech spending. Third multibillion-dollar deal this month alone.

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Sector Watch

Bond Market

The 10-year yield ticked up to 4.285 after falling the prior two sessions. Trump threatened to fire Powell again but bond traders completely ignored it. The dollar held flat around 95.13.

Policy Watch

Fed 
Treasury Secretary Bessent went on CNBC pushing the Fed to cut rates and stay open to more cuts. He acknowledged this quarter will be slower but said micro data has been strong and oil hasn't fed into inflation expectations yet.

White House
Trump threatened again to fire Powell if he doesn't leave when his chair term ends in May. Warsh confirmation hearings start this month, but Senator Tillis refuses to vote until the DOJ drops its probe into Powell. Powell refuses to step down until the probe is resolved. Total gridlock.

Fiscal & Trade 
Tax day arrived. Early data suggests larger refunds could give consumer spending a bump heading into summer, but gas prices are eating into that.

International 
The U.S. blockade of Hormuz is working. Admiral Cooper said forces have "completely halted" Iranian sea trade. No ships transited from Iranian ports yesterday. European countries are assembling an independent coalition to help reopen the strait, potentially without U.S. and Israeli involvement. Port of Corpus Christi hit record export volumes in Q1 as Asian buyers rush to secure American crude. Oil held choppy around $91 WTI and $95 Brent.

What to Watch

Netflix Earnings Tomorrow
Reports after the bell Thursday. I want to see if subscriber momentum holds up while gas prices eat into household budgets.

Warsh Confirmation Clock 
Powell's term ends May 15. If Warsh isn't confirmed in time, Powell stays as chair pro tem. Senator Tillis holds the swing vote. Watch the Senate Banking Committee closely.

Software Sector Momentum 
The major software ETFs are up big this week after last week's selloff on Claude Mythos fears. Microsoft $MSFT up 10 percent on the week. Datadog $DDOG and ServiceNow $NOW both up double digits. Watch if this holds through Friday.

10 AI Stocks to Lead the Next Decade

MarketBeat did an excellent job on this AI infrastructure leaders report

Thanks for reading - you are now the more informed 🙂

- John

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