April 15th Market Overview

Happy Thursday

Another day, another record for the S&P and Nasdaq. This whole rally is riding on the be that Trump wraps up Iran soon. Today he got Israel and Lebanon to sign a 10-day ceasefire, which was the last thing standing in the way of peace talks this weekend. That's the good news.

Two things nagging at me though. Loretta Mester, who used to run the Cleveland Fed, went on CNBC and basically said forget rate cuts, Iran is pushing inflation back up. And TSMC's earnings looked great on the surface, but the mix shows Nvidia quietly eating up the advanced chip capacity Apple needs for iPhones. Market doesn't seem to care about either one yet.

Let’s dig in...

Today's Big Picture

Lebanon ceasefire clears the last blocker 

Trump announced a 10-day Israel-Lebanon ceasefire starting 5 PM ET tonight. That was Iran's non-negotiable condition for restarting talks. Next round of U.S.-Iran negotiations now likely this weekend. Stocks ripped on the news, Brent still sitting at $99. Equities trust the deal, oil doesn't.

Apple is getting squeezed out of its own supply chain 

TSMC's print looked great on the surface but the mix tells the real story. HPC revenue up 20 quarter-over-quarter, smartphone down 11 and now just 26 of the business, lowest in eight years. Tim Cook already warned on the January call that Apple is "currently constrained" on advanced chip capacity. Nvidia is eating Apple's allocation. Apple stock down 1 today while the rest of tech ran.

The Fed transition is getting messy 

Former Cleveland Fed president Mester went on CNBC and told the Fed to wait and see on rates given Iran inflation risk. Kalshi cut Warsh confirmation odds by May 15 to 38 from above 50 yesterday. Tillis still blocking any Fed nominee until the DOJ investigation into Powell wraps. Trump threatened again to fire Powell from the board seat entirely. This isn't going to be a clean handoff.

Market Overview

Index Performance

Stock Spotlight

Advanced Micro Devices $AMD ( ▲ 6.52% )  
on its 12th straight up day. Bernstein lifted the target to $265 and said they're warming to AMD on server CPU strength. The chip rotation moved out of Nvidia into the second tier fast.

Abbott Laboratories $ABT ( ▼ 5.08% )  
got hit on weak Q2 guidance of $1.25 to $1.31 vs $1.36 expected. The Exact Sciences deal is dragging the full year. Only S&P name to hit a new 52-week low today.

Madison Air Solutions $MAIR ( ▲ 18.22% )  
raised $2.23 billion in its IPO priced at the top of the range. Founder Larry Gies keeps 95 of the voting stock. Indoor air filtration is boring but the print was clean.

Big Name Updates

Apple $AAPL ( ▼ 0.85% )  
sending under 200 Siri staff to an AI coding bootcamp ahead of the June revamp. Between the Siri scramble and getting boxed out of TSMC advanced capacity by Nvidia, Apple's AI story is looking thin.

Nvidia $NVDA ( ▼ 0.34% )  
going for its 12th straight up day. Watch $212 from October. Break it and the next leg starts. Fail there and the chip complex rolls.

Charles Schwab $SCHW ( ▼ 7.34% )  
posted record profit, revenue missed by $20 million, stock down. Earnings up 30 year-over-year and a record 9.9 million daily trades in February. Buy-the-dip name once it settles.

Hims & Hers $HIMS ( ▲ 12.23% )  
up after RFK Jr. said the FDA will reevaluate some restricted wellness peptides. Procedural now, real revenue lane if it sticks.

PepsiCo $PEP ( ▲ 1.6% )  
CFO told the Street on the earnings call he expects inflation to come from the Iran war. They're hedged 6 to 12 months on commodities.

Other Notable Company News

CoreWeave $CRWV ( ▼ 0.44% )  
launching a $1 billion senior notes offering at 9.75 due 2031, on top of $1.75 billion issued earlier this month. Borrowing at double digits to fund AI infrastructure.

Okta $OKTA ( ▲ 6.82% )  
upgraded to outperform at Raymond James, $85 target.

Spirit Aviation $FLYYQ ( ▼ 10.0% )  
reportedly facing liquidation this week. Jet fuel costs finally broke them.

Ford $F ( ▼ 1.77% )  
lost Doug Field, head of EV and software, in an executive restructure.

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Sector Watch

Bond Market

The 10-year drifted to 4.31 as claims and Philly Fed inflation came in hot. Dollar index flat at 95.23.

The real bond story is the Warsh confirmation risk. Odds got cut hard on Kalshi today. Any sign the May 15 handoff goes sideways and the front end moves.

Policy Watch

Fed 
Trump threatened to fire Powell from the board seat after his chair term ends May 15. Warsh confirmation hearing April 21, Tillis still blocking. Mester told CNBC the Fed should wait and see.

Iran and the Middle East

• Israel-Lebanon 10-day ceasefire starts 5 PM ET

• Next U.S.-Iran talks likely this weekend

• Strait of Hormuz still shut, U.S. expanded blockade to all ships regardless of flag

• IEA head warned Europe has maybe 6 weeks of jet fuel left

Trade 
U.S. signing a deal with the Philippines today to build a high-tech manufacturing hub across Luzon. China-proof supply chains, especially critical minerals.

Defense 
Hegseth pushing a wartime footing for U.S. manufacturing. Pentagon reached out to Ford, GM, Oshkosh, and GE Aerospace on ramping weapons production.

What to Watch

Netflix earnings tonight 
The only name that can move the tape after hours. Streaming margins and the ad-tier trajectory are what matter.

U.S.-Iran talks this weekend 
Progress means oil rolls over and the dollar softens. Breakdown means gold and crude both rip.

Warsh hearing April 21 
Cleanest read on whether the Fed chair transition happens on time.

China solar export curbs 
China weighing limits on polysilicon, wafer, and module exports. They control 80 of global supply. If it hits, U.S. solar for data centers gets expensive. First Solar $FSLR and Enphase $ENPH are the names.

10 AI Stocks to Lead the Next Decade

MarketBeat did an excellent job on this AI infrastructure leaders report

Thanks for reading - you are now the more informed 🙂

- John

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