April 14th Pre-Market

Good Morning

Oil is below $100, PPI just came in soft, and Citi posted its best quarter in a decade. Genuinely good morning if you don't think too hard about the fact that most of it is riding on a phone call and a ceasefire that expires next week. I'll take it though, in this chaos.

Let's dig in...

Today's Big Picture

1. Iran Could Be Back At The Table 

Trump said the "right people" from Iran called and want to make a deal. Sources say both teams could return to Islamabad before the ceasefire expires next week. Oil dropped below $100 on that signal alone. This market prices rumors, not agreements. Stay close to the tape.

2. JPMorgan Beat. Dimon said Not To Trust It.

JPMorgan posted $5.94 per share on $50.54 billion in revenue, beating on both lines. But Dimon cut full-year net interest income guidance by $1.5 billion and flagged the most complex macro backdrop he's managing for. Wells Fargo missed revenue outright. The worry was that cautious guidance was a sector-wide problem. Citigroup just answered that. Best quarterly revenue in a decade, return on equity above target. The guidance cut is a JPMorgan story, not a bank sector story.

3. China

China called the U.S. blockade of Iranian ports "dangerous and irresponsible" this morning. Beijing is Iran's largest oil buyer and the blockade directly cuts off that supply. A U.S.-sanctioned Chinese tanker already tested the blockade Tuesday morning and made it through. If China starts actively running the blockade, this conflict has a second front that markets are not pricing at all.

Market Overview

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Stock Spotlight (pre-market)

BlackRock $BLK ( ▲ 2.44% )  

Beat on earnings and revenue with ETF inflows still growing and performance fees climbing. Every fund manager who pulled back on financials after JPMorgan's guidance cut now has a reason to revisit.

Novo Nordisk $NVO ( ▲ 1.23% )  

Up on an OpenAI partnership for drug discovery. The move is real because the market is starting to price AI as a cost and timeline reducer for clinical pipelines, not just a buzzword.

American Airlines $AAL ( ▼ 0.8% )  

Moving on a Bloomberg report that United CEO Scott Kirby pitched a merger to Trump in February. Merger arb desks are already in. This is a one day move unless Washington signals it's open to a deal that creates the largest U.S. carrier by revenue.

Globalstar $GSAT ( ▼ 0.37% )  
pricing a buyout premium after Bloomberg reported Amazon $AMZN is in advanced talks to acquire the satellite operator, with an announcement possible as early as today. Amazon's satellite network is years behind Starlink's 10 million customers and $9 billion revenue run rate.

Ford $F ( ▲ 0.25% )  

Got a UBS upgrade this morning. The specific call is that Ford's ability to absorb higher aluminum and energy costs is underappreciated.

Citigroup $C ( ▲ 1.52% )  
Best quarterly revenue in a decade, earnings per share up 56% year over year, and return on equity at 13.1% against a target of 10 to 11. Fixed income and equities both beat. The guidance cut at JPMorgan was a JPMorgan problem.

What to Watch

The Ceasefire Clock (Next Week) 

The market has priced a deal. No agreement exists. The ceasefire expires next week, and if talks do not visibly restart by Thursday, the optimism embedded in today's prices gets tested fast. The trade is not whether talks happen. It is whether the market gets proof before the clock runs out.

Israel-Lebanon Talks (Washington, Today) 

Israel and Lebanon are meeting in Washington today while most of the tape is focused on Iran. A breakthrough here quietly removes another layer of geopolitical risk premium that markets have been carrying since February. Not the headline catalyst today, but worth watching into the close.

Have a good day 🙂

- John

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