April 13th Market Overview

Happy Monday

Peace talks in Pakistan collapsed over the weekend and the Navy began blocking Iranian ports this morning. Oil climbed back near $100 before trimming gains as markets figured out the strait itself stays open, only Iranian port traffic is being cut off. I'm remaining cautious.

Iran built up substantial offshore reserves heading into this conflict and China has over a billion barrels in strategic reserves as a longer-term buffer. Neither side folds in a week.

Let’s dig in...

Today's Big Picture

Iran Talks Collapse, Blockade Begins 

Iran refused to stop uranium enrichment or cut support for its regional proxies, ending talks in Pakistan without a deal. The Navy moved immediately to block all ships entering or leaving Iranian ports. I think the market is underestimating how long this drags out. Iran has roughly 160 million barrels of oil floating offshore right now, enough to keep China supplied until mid-July.

Goldman Kicks Off Bank Earnings 

Goldman Sachs $GS posted its second-highest quarterly profit ever, with $5.6 billion in net earnings and record equity trading revenue. Fixed income came in nearly $900 million below what analysts expected and the stock fell on the miss. The rest of the big banks report through Wednesday and what the CEOs say about war risk will matter more than the headline numbers.

Tech Takes the Baton 

The Nasdaq is on pace for its ninth straight winning day, its longest run since December 2023. Tech has led every sector since the March 30 low while energy has given back ground. Tom Lee at Fundstrat called a market bottom today and Yardeni Research held its 7,700 S&P year-end target. Oil near $100 is the main threat to this rotation holding.

Market Overview

Index Performance

Stock Spotlight

Revolution Medicines $RVMD ( ▲ 41.35% )  
had its biggest single day ever after an experimental pancreatic cancer drug nearly doubled overall survival versus chemotherapy in a Phase 3 trial. The drug targets RAS, a protein present in over 90% of pancreatic tumors that researchers have chased for decades. Former Nebraska Senator Ben Sasse confirmed he was enrolled in the study.

Amazon $AMZN ( ▲ 0.63% )  
is pressing into resistance between $238 and $240 that has capped every rally since early 2025. Breaking through opens a path toward all-time highs near $255. Bulls need the $220 area to hold on any pullback.

Palantir Technologies $PLTR ( ▲ 3.37% )  
recovered some ground after falling sharply last week when Michael Burry posted that Anthropic was eating its lunch. Burry deleted the post. Cathie Wood bought more than 85,000 shares on Friday and Wedbush called the bear thesis fictional.

Big Name Updates

Taiwan Semiconductor $TSM ( ▼ 0.28% )  
reports Thursday morning. Analysts project $17.1 billion in net profit for Q1, which would be a fourth consecutive quarter of record earnings. Q2 guidance matters more than the print. AI chip demand still outpaces production capacity.

Conagra Brands $CAG ( ▼ 4.41% )  
CEO Sean Connolly steps down June 1 after 11 years. John Brase, currently COO at J.M. Smucker, takes over. JPMorgan flagged rising freight and packaging costs as the incoming CEO's main headwind.

SpaceX now counts more than 9 million Starlink customers across residential, business, and government segments. A summer IPO is on the table and Starlink is the entire revenue story.

Other Notable Company News

Delta Air Lines $DAL ( ▼ 1.14% )  
and the major carriers fell as oil near $100 per barrel presses into jet fuel costs. Severe weekend storms canceled nearly 2,000 flights domestically, adding a one-time hit on top of the structural fuel problem.

McDonald's $MCD ( ▼ 0.38% )  
is launching Red Bull Dragonberry Energizers, Dirty Dr Pepper, and Mango Pineapple Refreshers at US locations next month. Dutch Bros $BROS fell on the news.

ON Semiconductor $ON ( ▲ 3.45% )  
was upgraded to Buy at Bank of America with a price target raised to $85. Three years of underperformance against peers combined with growing AI power exposure is the thesis.

Starbucks $SBUX ( ▲ 0.91% )  
earned a Hold upgrade at Jefferies after the China franchise deal closed April 2 and the US business showed early signs of stabilizing.

Today’s Sponsor

The Future of Housing Is Being Printed

The construction industry hasn't changed much in decades. Azure Printed Homes is changing that.

The future of housing is printing now, and you can be a part of it!

Three robots in our Los Angeles facility each print a home per day. Homes go up in 24 hours and are move-in ready in about 20 days, starting at $40,000.

In 2024, we crossed $5M in revenue. We currently have $62M in signed orders backed by pre-paid deposits.

Now we're raising capital to open a second manufacturing facility in Denver in 2026, doubling our production capacity.

The housing crisis needs scalable solutions. We're building them.

Invest in the future of housing.

Invest in Azure Printed Homes

Sector Watch

Bond Market

Treasury yields climbed early as oil near $100 revived inflation fears, with the 10-year touching 4.34% before pulling back as stocks recovered into the afternoon. The dollar moved higher early then gave it back. Existing home sales fell to their lowest level since last June, the worst miss versus expectations in months. Bank CEO commentary this week is the next real read on how Wall Street is pricing war risk into loan demand and dealmaking pipelines.

Policy Watch

Iran / Hormuz

The ceasefire remains technically in place despite the blockade going live. Germany clarified the action targets Iranian ports specifically, not the full strait for all traffic. WSJ reports that a second round of talks could happen within days and Trump aides say the door to diplomacy remains open. If military strikes resume, markets reprice fast.

Fiscal & Trade

A new Federal Reserve working paper estimates AI-related products accounted for nearly a quarter of all US imports last year, with AI imports growing sharply while non-AI imports barely moved. Absent the AI infrastructure buildout, last year's goods trade deficit would have been nearly $200 billion smaller. The tariffs meant to close that gap are not touching the main driver.

International

Hungarian markets hit a record today after Prime Minister Viktor Orbán lost by a landslide, ending his 16-year run.

• Opposition leader Peter Magyar's win opens the door to closer EU ties and could unfreeze nearly $20 billion in previously withheld funds.

• The forint hit a four-year high against the euro.

• Morgan Stanley said room for further asset appreciation remains.

What to Watch

Bank Earnings Wave 
JPMorgan Chase $JPM, Citigroup $C, and Wells Fargo $WFC report Tuesday. Bank of America $BAC and Morgan Stanley $MS follow Wednesday. The numbers will look solid. I'm watching what these CEOs say about consumer credit stress and whether oil above $100 is slowing corporate loan demand.

Second Round of Iran Talks 
A second round could happen within days per WSJ. The ceasefire still holds. Watch Trump's posts and Iran's foreign ministry for any signal. If strikes resume, the tech rotation unwinds and you're back in an energy market.

Pershing Square Road Show 
Bill Ackman launched the road show to take his hedge fund public alongside a new investment fund. Unusual structure. It's a live test of institutional appetite for alternative asset managers right now.

Want to stay up-to-date on latest IPO’s?

MarketBeat did an excellent job on this free IPO guide.

Thanks for reading - you are now the more informed 🙂

- John

Today’s Sponsor

What two founders learned growing a 37-year-old company

Intrepid's co-founder and CEO don't do corporate gloss. Their opening letter in the Integrated Annual Report gets into what 2025 actually required: the hard calls, the strategy reset, and how a nearly 30% growth year still came with real challenges.

Read the report