September 18th Market Overview

Happy Thursday

The market finally woke up to what the Fed delivered yesterday. Fresh highs across the board and small caps having their best day in years. Bond yields are climbing even as everyone celebrates rate cuts.

Nvidia propping up Intel is a real blow against AMD.

Intel gets validation, Nvidia gets defense against AMD, and we all pretend this wasn't planned months ago.

Sometimes the best trades hide in plain sight.

Let's dig in...

Today’s Big Picture

Nvidia bets big on Intel Nvidia 
$NVDA will invest $5 billion in Intel $INTC at $23.28 per share to jointly develop data center and PC chips. Intel became the day's biggest winner while Nvidia gained ground. The partnership gives Intel credibility in AI markets where it's been losing customers and helps Nvidia challenge AMD's growing server business.

Small caps finally break out
The Russell 2000 pushed toward record highs for the first time since November 2021. Lower rates help these companies more because they borrow money to grow, unlike cash-rich big tech. Individual investor sentiment flipped dramatically - bullish sentiment jumped to 41.7% from just 28% last week.

Markets hit fresh highs as Fed cuts gain steam
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq reached new daily records as traders bet on more Fed cuts ahead. Betting markets show strong odds of another half-point cut by year-end. Weekly jobless claims returned to normal at 231,000 after last week's Texas spike, keeping the job market healthy.

Market Overview

U.S. Stock Indexes, This Week so Far

Stock Spotlight

 Intel $INTC ( ▲ 22.89% ) 
Nvidia will buy a $5B stake at $23.28 and partner on data center and PC chips. Management avoided promising Intel-made production. Product pipeline gets a lift; foundry profitability remains separate.

Nvidia $NVDA ( ▲ 3.98% ) 
The deal expands reach into enterprise x86 estates and protects share against rivals. Street notes framed it as strategic insurance and a push closer to the PC and edge.

Bullish $BLSH ( ▲ 19.45% ) 
First report since listing showed EPS of $0.93 on $57M adjusted revenue and $8.1M adjusted EBITDA. Subscription and services grew year over year. Citi raised its price target to $70.

Big name Updates

Alphabet $GOOGL ( ▲ 0.86% ) 
A report said China’s regulator dropped its Android antitrust probe. That removes a regulatory overhang while momentum builds around core AI initiatives.

Meta Platforms $META ( ▲ 0.49% ) 
Unveiled new smart glasses and is talking with media firms on AI content licensing, per reports. Hardware and content deals extend the platform story.

Novo Nordisk $NVO ( ▲ 6.36% ) 
Late-stage data showed a once-daily obesity pill matched weekly injection results on weight loss. Cardiometabolic leadership widened.

Other Notable Company News

Allstate $ALL ( ▲ 4.56% ) 
Reported catastrophe losses for July–August at $397M, well below a Q3 consensus figure cited. Loss visibility and capital track improved near term.

Wynn Resorts $WYNN ( ▲ 4.42% ) 
Price target raised to $145 at Stifel on international gaming tailwinds. Macau and global recovery themes stayed intact.

Live Nation $LYV ( ▼ 2.73% ) 
The FTC sued the company over alleged illegal ticket resale tactics. Legal risk returned to the story.

Cracker Barrel $CBRL ( ▼ 7.84% ) 
EPS missed and the company guided to softer traffic. Shares stayed under pressure after a recent brand reset and reversal.

Advanced Micro Devices $AMD ( ▼ 0.38% ) 
Traded lower as investors parsed CPU/GPU implications from the Nvidia–Intel plan. Positioning in AI infrastructure saw fresh debate.

Sector Watch

Bond Market

Treasury rates climbed despite the Fed cutting, with the 10-year hitting 4.118%. Bond investors worry aggressive cuts might spark inflation.

• Mortgage rates fell to 6.26%, lowest since October

• Traders bet on another half-point cut by year-end

• Bond rates rising while Fed cuts reflects inflation concerns

Policy Watch

Fed divided on cut pace 
The quarter-point cut came with projections for two more this year, but internal disagreement is growing.

New governor Stephen Miran wanted a bigger half-point cut.

Supreme Court cases brewing

• November 5th oral arguments on Trump's matching tariffs

• Trump wants Fed governor Lisa Cook removed while court case continues

• Bank of England held rates at 4%, slowed money removal program

The tariff case could reshape import taxes from 10% to 50% depending on the country.

Today’s Sponsor

Former Zillow Exec Opens Door to $1.3T Market

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Invest Before 9/18

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What to Watch

Small cap momentum 
The Russell 2000's breakout needs volume and breadth confirmation. Watch whether participation spreads beyond Thursday's leaders or stays concentrated in a few names.

Intel execution test 
Intel's quarterly foundry revenue updates and customer announcements in upcoming earnings calls will show if the Nvidia partnership drives real business or just headlines.

Fed speaker divergence 
With governors split on cutting pace, watch for messaging differences between dovish voices like Miran and hawks who want fewer cuts. Fed speak moves rate expectations.

Earnings guidance credibility 
Watch for more companies raising sales guidance while missing profit forecasts like Darden did. This pattern could signal margin pressure across sectors as records continue.

China tech thaw signals
Next catalyst is the US-China trade meeting scheduled for October. Watch for Microsoft Azure approvals or Meta's Instagram pilot program announcements as early signals of broader tech détente.

Thanks for reading 🙂

- John